2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[AlphaToOmega]

I doubt 2022 is going to be an MDR-based season. The current projected pattern for ASO 2022 is one with a +AMO, -PDO, +AMM, -ENSO, and no Atlantic Nino; the years that follow this pattern are 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2011, and 2020. 1998 had 3 major hurricanes; 2001 had 4; 2005 had 7; 2010 had 5; 2011 had 4; 2020 had 7. That is a total of 30 major hurricanes all from active seasons, but there are surprisingly few that became hurricanes in the MDR.

1. 1998: Out of the 3 major hurricanes that formed, only Georges became one in the MDR.
2. 2001: This season had 4 major hurricanes, but none of them became major hurricanes in the MDR.
3. 2005: Despite being an active season with 7 major hurricanes, none of them became major hurricanes in the MDR.
4. 2010: 2 (Igor and Julia) out of the 5 major hurricanes achieved that intensity in the MDR.
5. 2011: None of the 4 major hurricanes became major hurricanes in the MDR.
6. 2020: Only Teddy became a major hurricane in the MDR out of the 7 in this season.

Overall, only 4 major hurricanes out of the 30 listed achieved Category III strength in the MDR, which is only about 13.3% of the major hurricanes that formed during these seasons. Some of these seasons had warm MDRs (2005 and 2020) but could not achieve making 2 major hurricanes within the MDR. Also, for a season with a near record-breaking MDR, 2010 definitely fell short; 2017 had a cooler MDR than 2010 (as well as a +PDO, which 2010 did not have), but it had 3 major hurricanes achieve that intensity in the MDR. Honestly, the projected pattern for ASO 2022 is not conducive for an MDR-based season.

[Category5Kaiju]

I doubt 2022 is going to be an MDR-based season. The current projected pattern for ASO 2022 is one with a +AMO, -PDO, +AMM, -ENSO, and no Atlantic Nino; the years that follow this pattern are 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2011, and 2020. 1998 had 3 major hurricanes; 2001 had 4; 2005 had 7; 2010 had 5; 2011 had 4; 2020 had 7. That is a total of 30 major hurricanes all from active seasons, but there are surprisingly few that became hurricanes in the MDR.

1. 1998: Out of the 3 major hurricanes that formed, only Bonnie became one in the MDR.
2. 2001: This season had 4 major hurricanes, but none of them became major hurricanes in the MDR.
3. 2005: Despite being an active season with 7 major hurricanes, none of them became major hurricanes in the MDR.
4. 2010: 2 (Igor and Julia) out of the 5 major hurricanes achieved that intensity in the MDR.
5. 2011: None of the 4 major hurricanes became major hurricanes in the MDR.
6. 2020: Only Teddy became a major hurricane in the MDR out of the 7 in this season.

Overall, only 4 major hurricanes out of the 30 listed achieved Category III strength in the MDR, which is only about 13.3% of the major hurricanes that formed during these seasons. Some of these seasons had warm MDRs (2005 and 2020) but could not achieve making 2 major hurricanes within the MDR. Also, for a season with a near record-breaking MDR, 2010 definitely fell short; 2017 had a cooler MDR than 2010 (as well as a +PDO, which 2017 did not have), but it had 3 major hurricanes achieve that intensity in the MDR. Honestly, the projected pattern for ASO 2022 is not conducive for an MDR-based season.

Hang on a second, 1998 also had Georges, which did become a major hurricane in the MDR. Also, I feel like there are most definitely caveats to your analog years (don't get me wrong, I understand the logic behind how you came up with them). One major caveat is that this year, while -ENSO, is a third year La Nina (unlike the other six years you have mentioned), and as a result, this could have some impact on MDR activity in ways that we have yet to see. I definitely feel that whether or not we get intense MDR activity may not be as simple as stating that all of those seasons had +AMO, -PDO, +AMM, -ENSO, and no Atlantic Nino. There are definitely more factors at play here.

[AlphaToOmega]

I doubt 2022 is going to be an MDR-based season. The current projected pattern for ASO 2022 is one with a +AMO, -PDO, +AMM, -ENSO, and no Atlantic Nino; the years that follow this pattern are 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2011, and 2020. 1998 had 3 major hurricanes; 2001 had 4; 2005 had 7; 2010 had 5; 2011 had 4; 2020 had 7. That is a total of 30 major hurricanes all from active seasons, but there are surprisingly few that became hurricanes in the MDR.

1. 1998: Out of the 3 major hurricanes that formed, only Bonnie became one in the MDR.
2. 2001: This season had 4 major hurricanes, but none of them became major hurricanes in the MDR.
3. 2005: Despite being an active season with 7 major hurricanes, none of them became major hurricanes in the MDR.
4. 2010: 2 (Igor and Julia) out of the 5 major hurricanes achieved that intensity in the MDR.
5. 2011: None of the 4 major hurricanes became major hurricanes in the MDR.
6. 2020: Only Teddy became a major hurricane in the MDR out of the 7 in this season.

Overall, only 4 major hurricanes out of the 30 listed achieved Category III strength in the MDR, which is only about 13.3% of the major hurricanes that formed during these seasons. Some of these seasons had warm MDRs (2005 and 2020) but could not achieve making 2 major hurricanes within the MDR. Also, for a season with a near record-breaking MDR, 2010 definitely fell short; 2017 had a cooler MDR than 2010 (as well as a +PDO, which 2017 did not have), but it had 3 major hurricanes achieve that intensity in the MDR. Honestly, the projected pattern for ASO 2022 is not conducive for an MDR-based season.

Hang on a second, 1998 also had Georges, which did become a major hurricane in the MDR. Also, I feel like there are most definitely caveats to your analog years (don't get me wrong, I understand the logic behind how you came up with them). One major caveat is that this year, while -ENSO, is a third year La Nina (unlike the other six years you have mentioned), and as a result, this could have some impact on MDR activity in ways that we have yet to see. I definitely feel that whether or not we get intense MDR activity may not be as simple as stating that all of those seasons had +AMO, -PDO, +AMM, -ENSO, and no Atlantic Nino. There are definitely more factors at play here.

I meant to write Georges. Bonnie did not become a major hurricane until it reached the Western Atlantic lol

However, there are other potential analog years that suggest more of a west-based season rather than an MDR-based season. Currently, Nino 3.4 SSTAs are -0.9 C, and the years since 1982 with Nino 3.4 SSTAs at or below -0.9 C during April are 1985, 1988, 1989, 1999, 2000, 2008, and 2011. Of the 25 major hurricanes that formed during that time period, only Helene (1988), Gabrielle (1989), Hugo (1989), Gert (1999), Isaac (2000), Bertha (2008), and Ike (2008) achieved Category III status in the MDR, which is 28%. Assuming 5 major hurricanes form this year (which is my forecast), that would mean 1.4 major hurricanes (rounded to 1) would achieve that in the MDR.

As for third year La Ninas, there is 1956 (debatable), 1975, 1985 (debatable), and 2000. Of the 10 major hurricanes that formed during that time period, only 1, Issac (2000), achieved major hurricane intensity in the MDR, which is 10%. Things really seem to be more favorable for a west-based season than an MDR season.

[NotSparta]

You know we're in for a rather strong -NAO when it looks like you have a bowling ball stalled out in the middle of the Atlantic

[Category5Kaiju]

You know we're in for a rather strong -NAO when it looks like you have a bowling ball stalled out in the middle of the Atlantic

https://i.imgur.com/wk3IA78.png

Indeed. Wow, if that verifies and sustains itself in terms of the sst anomalies then I think that could be a big warning sign for what may to come later this season.

[NotSparta]

You know we're in for a rather strong -NAO when it looks like you have a bowling ball stalled out in the middle of the Atlantic

https://i.imgur.com/wk3IA78.png

Indeed. Wow, if that verifies and sustains itself in terms of the sst anomalies then I think that could be a big warning sign for what may to come later this season.

https://images.schoolspecialty.com/images/1284377_A_ecommfullsize.jpg

Yeah if it isn't short lived it definitely wouldn't be a good sign. More than a couple weeks and people will be adjusting their seasonal predictions on the poll

[DorkyMcDorkface]

You know we're in for a rather strong -NAO when it looks like you have a bowling ball stalled out in the middle of the Atlantic

https://i.imgur.com/wk3IA78.png

Indeed. Wow, if that verifies and sustains itself in terms of the sst anomalies then I think that could be a big warning sign for what may to come later this season.

https://images.schoolspecialty.com/images/1284377_A_ecommfullsize.jpg

Yeah if it isn't short lived it definitely wouldn't be a good sign. More than a couple weeks and people will be adjusting their seasonal predictions on the poll

Not that it means much as you have to account for decreasing accuracy the further out in time you go due to ensemble smoothing but the latest 46-day EPS run (which was released this afternoon) is keeping the -NAO into mid May it appears.

[JetFuel_SE]

Slightly different take from Philip

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 7107191811

Except 1988 and 1989, all others had a large number of majors.

Even then, 1988 had Gilbert and Joan while 1989 had Hugo. In other words, both of those years featured their fair share of very damaging and powerful storms despite being in a -AMO period!

1988 actually looked quite +AMO-ish at this time of the year.

[Category5Kaiju]

Slightly different take from Philip

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 7107191811

Except 1988 and 1989, all others had a large number of majors.

Even then, 1988 had Gilbert and Joan while 1989 had Hugo. In other words, both of those years featured their fair share of very damaging and powerful storms despite being in a -AMO period!

1988 actually looked quite +AMO-ish at this time of the year.
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1_op/image/daily/ssta/png/1988/04/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_19880419.png

Compare that with this, it is honestly amazing to see how cold the Gulf and subtropics were back then.

[aspen]

You know we're in for a rather strong -NAO when it looks like you have a bowling ball stalled out in the middle of the Atlantic

https://i.imgur.com/wk3IA78.png

How do the NAO and changes in trade winds result in warming or cooling of ocean temperatures?

[SFLcane]

GFS long-range brings the trades over the mdr roaring back in early may. Atleast over the mdr

[Shell Mound]

GFS long-range brings the trades over the mdr roaring back in early may. Atleast over the mdr

The GFS shows a solid -NAO through the end of its latest run, in line with its previous runs, which would suggest a warming MDR through the first week of May. Trades in general are suppressed over the MDR through the end of the latest run, as the -NAO continually reinforces lower-than-average MSLP and hence relaxed trades over the area. Both the GEFS and EPS means depict this scenario as well as those of their operational suites. If anything, the trend reflects a stouter and more persistent -NAO through early May vs. earlier runs. So at this point I think we will see continued and robust warming of the MDR through at least the first week of May, if not farther.

[NotSparta]

You know we're in for a rather strong -NAO when it looks like you have a bowling ball stalled out in the middle of the Atlantic

https://i.imgur.com/wk3IA78.png

How do the NAO and changes in trade winds result in warming or cooling of ocean temperatures?

-NAO weakens the subtropical ridge, and thus the trades, which generally warms the ocean in the tropics.

[Category5Kaiju]

So I recently was just thinking, and I have a question to ask: I understand how many of us trackers are curious to see how active the MDR could get this season, but couldn't one be able to sort of gauge MDR activity with precipitation anomaly maps? In other words, the wetter the MDR, the more active it could be (and also a higher chance of seeing at least several strong MDR storms?) Or are there more caveats to doing this that I am not seeing, ultimately making it an inefficient or bad idea?

[Shell Mound]

This is about as classically -NAO as one can get and is ideal for significant warming over the entire MDR through the first days of May, at the very least.

[AlphaToOmega]

So I recently was just thinking, and I have a question to ask: I understand how many of us trackers are curious to see how active the MDR could get this season, but couldn't one be able to sort of gauge MDR activity with precipitation anomaly maps? In other words, the wetter the MDR, the more active it could be (and also a higher chance of seeing at least several strong MDR storms?) Or are there more caveats to doing this that I am not seeing, ultimately making it an inefficient or bad idea?

Two things:

1) Precipitation anomaly forecasts are not always accurate

2) They do not always point to where systems existed. Looking at this map, you would expected 2017 to have a lackluster MDR:

[wxman57]

New IRI/CPC Nino 3.4 forecast for April is out. All models shifted significantly cooler for peak season (La Nina):

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

[SFLcane]

New IRI/CPC Nino 3.4 forecast for April is out. All models shifted significantly cooler for peak season (La Nina):

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Any adjustments to your seasonal numbers?

[Shell Mound]

Nothing new but is confirmation of what is going to happen on ASO.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1516540367474110470

Some of those ENSO predictions are pretty crazy. I went and checked the ONI for seasons which had ENSO below -1.0 consistently from JAS to OND:

1988 - 2xCat 4, 1xCat 5 (Gilbert)
1998 - 1xCat 3, 1xCat 4 (Georges, almost Cat 5), 1xCat 5 (Mitch)
1999 - 5xCat 4
2010 - 1xCat 3, 4xCat 4

This season is not looking good especially when you look at Gilbert and Mitch.

1988, 1998, and 2010 are not good comparisons to 2022 because all three were La Ninas following El Niño events (1987, 1997, and 2009). 1999 was a double-dip Nina, and 2022 looks to be a triple-dip.

Bear in mind that 2022 may not behave like previous “triple-dip” Niñas due to the effects of climate change. Since 1950 there have been the following “triple-dip” Niñas and cool-neutral ENSO episodes that followed consecutive Niñas: 1956, 1975, 1985, and 2000. 2000’s TC tracks were notably different vs. those of the other three years. 1956, 1975, and 1985 featured tight clusters of hurricanes a) between LA and the FL Panhandle and b) off the Eastern Seaboard, between the CONUS and Bermuda. By contrast, 2000’s clusters occurred significantly farther east, a) over the west coast of peninsular FL and b) well to the east of Bermuda. 2000 occurred in a warmer climate vs. the other years (1950s–‘80s), and the climate in 2022 is even warmer than in 2000. Warmer climates tend to yield stronger subtropical ridges (Hadley cells) that expand poleward, implying stronger blocking.



2000’s hurricanes tended to curve poleward around 85°W and 55°W, respectively—about 5° farther east than the clusters in the other three years. To account for post-2000 warming, shift 2000’s inflection points yet 5° more to the east, and you end up with solutions that are similar to 2004’s. 2004’s hurricanes curved around 80°W and 50°W, respectively. Just as 2000 exhibited a greater tendency toward mid-latitude blocking compared to the other three years, so 2004 featured even more of a pronounced blocking tendency, up to and including the infamous “ridge-bridge,” than 2000 did, resulting in tracks that converged on peninsular FL (Charley, Frances, and Jeanne) and the open Atlantic (Danielle, Karl, and Lisa):



Add the likelihood that ASO of 2022 will feature a -PDO/-ENSO, and the correlation with strong blocking only grows—basically an enhanced 2004, like the EC:





Basically, this kind of setup—with a -PDO/-ENSO (or at least cool neutral)/-IOD + climate change—might well increase the risk of hurricanes on peninsular FL.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.ibb.co/z4yNnhb/2022-NAO-2.png
https://i.ibb.co/ZJrCvxF/2022-NAO-1.png

This is about as classically -NAO as one can get and is ideal for significant warming over the entire MDR through the first days of May, at the very least.

GFS appears to be showing not just relaxed trades, but a brief period of actual raw westerlies on the regular zonal wind hovmoller. Now that's impressive.