Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[psyclone]

October is a dry season month in the bay area averaging just over 2" of rain...and we just got more than that in one hour. Crikey

[jlauderdal]

18z icon a bit stronger with a 998 storm nearing SFL.

How long will 57 go against the ICON?

Actually he said to watch the icon lol. It’s the fastest model night be still adjusting.

Ok, I thought he said a couple of inches of rain and tepid winds, ICON looks different than that.

[toad strangler]

How long will 57 go against the ICON?

Actually he said to watch the icon lol. It’s the fastest model night be still adjusting.

Ok, I thought he said a couple of inches of rain and tepid winds, ICON looks different than that.

18z GFS

[jlauderdal]

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Actually he said to watch the icon lol. It’s the fastest model night be still adjusting.

Ok, I thought he said a couple of inches of rain and tepid winds, ICON looks different than that.

18z GFS

Trend is no friend today with models, tampa with big totals today, so much for fall

[toad strangler]

The 18z GFS with a bona fide strong hurricane into the central Florida Peninsula

[Teban54]

Wow, today's model trends came out of nowhere, after some people had probably written this one off.

[Emmett_Brown]

The 18z GFS with a bona fide strong hurricane into the central Florida Peninsula

Yep, and after like a week of heavy rain too

[Travorum]

18z GFS

[ThunderForce]

What's with the complete 180 on the models all of a sudden regarding this?

[skillz305]

Now that the GFS shows development, I definitely have my eyes open.

[Stormlover70]

Now that the GFS shows development, I definitely have my eyes open.

The gfs has come a long way.

[SFLcane]

The 18z GFS with a bona fide strong hurricane into the central Florida Peninsula

Comes on near Fort Myers..

[Travorum]

Back up to 40%.

1. Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over portions of the central and western
Gulf of Mexico. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form
over the south-central or southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Gradual development is possible after the low develops, and a
tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the
early or middle portions of next week while the low moves slowly
eastward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could
occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over
portions of the Florida Peninsula from late this weekend into next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[chaser1]

Next name on the list is Milton. That name seems fitting given the age demographic of West Central Florida… so there could be some destiny playing out.

There's also a Milton, Florida - a city in the NW panhandle.

That would be poetic. I wonder if there's any Milton's, who live in Milton? The day Tropical Storm Milton strikes there, THAT dude ought to buy a lottery ticket.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS… Legit strong TS/Cat 1 into FL this run…



18z ICON… TS

[chaser1]

What will we do come December? Happy hour just isn't the same for Cold Fronts or squall lines

[AnnularCane]

What will we do come December? Happy hour just isn't the same for Cold Fronts or squall lines

Discuss the 2025 season.

[otowntiger]

Now that the GFS shows development, I definitely have my eyes open.

I can just about guarantee that the very next run will be 100% different. I bet it will show no discernible vorticity.

[chris_fit]

18z EPS continues to look messy for Florida... Several hurricane members like on the 12z.

[Cat5James]

Now that the GFS shows development, I definitely have my eyes open.

I can just about guarantee that the very next run will be 100% different. I bet it will show no discernible vorticity.

I’ll take that bet