2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[WeatherBoy2000]

12z gfs shows a strengthening TS going into the Antilles before dissipating in the Caribbean. Something stronger and more longlived will probably have to track north of the Antilles to avoid the hostile wind shear coming out of the Caribbean.

[Stratton23]

Even if it gets killed off in the caribbean, still could have a chance for the remnants to make it into the gulf, I call a certain “ H” named storm that got killed by shear in the Caribbean, but the remnants stayed intact enough to get into the southern gulf

[USTropics]

It's not often that I get really excited about a new weather tool, but this is one of those times - https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab

This is Google's Weather Lab, and there are a bunch of cool new features. You can get ECMWF ensemble tracks here (with max winds and SLP):


Even more exciting though is they also are publishing their experimental AI generated model:


As well as their WeatherNext Gen ensembles:


If you haven't heard of this yet, research scientists trained the WeatherNext Gen model using global weather data from 1979 - 2018 and then used it to predict the 2019 weather to test accuracy. They found it was more accurate then previous ensemble products for forecasting extreme heat, cold and wind, as well as tropical-cyclone tracks.

You can read more about the verification here - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03957-3

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1948810895762567176

[BobHarlem]

12z euro has the system going into the Bahamas then recuriving (missing bermuda to the west). 12z GFS has it going deep into the west Caribbean. Classic GFS/EURO split here on the long range.

[Fancy1002]

Even if it gets killed off in the caribbean, still could have a chance for the remnants to make it into the gulf, I call a certain “ H” named storm that got killed by shear in the Caribbean, but the remnants stayed intact enough to get into the southern gulf

Just say Harvey.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z euro has the system going into the Bahamas then recuriving (missing bermuda to the west). 12z GFS has it going deep into the west Caribbean. Classic GFS/EURO split here on the long range.

Also classic case of the Euro not even developing it.

[TomballEd]

12z euro has the system going into the Bahamas then recuriving (missing bermuda to the west). 12z GFS has it going deep into the west Caribbean. Classic GFS/EURO split here on the long range.

The low and mid vorticity are trackable all the way to Central America but the verbatim strong TS or Cat 1 storm that moves through the Antilles weakens in the Graveyard (30 knots plus shear) to an open wave by 80W. GFS is not that well supported by the ensembles but last I'd heard Euro ensembles were now running at op resolution but GFS ensembles don't run with the same resolution. If anyone can compare GFS control ensemble with op that might explain only tepid ensemble support if the control has a different solution.

Area shear sounding suggests it isn't the upper level winds, its the strong easterlies. Winds accelerating into the Gulf (the South American heat low hasn't started weakening) also reduces convergence.

[cycloneye]

12z AIFS does not develop but it tracks wave to the Gulf and look at the end as another strong wave appears.

[LarryWx]

Euro Weeklies ACE for August 18-24 up to 140% of 2005-24 avg.

Edit: Also note the green box (progged ACE) for the ATL basin is now larger than even the WPAC green box on the map.

[StormWeather]

Euro Weeklies ACE for August 18-24 up to 140% of 2005-24 avg.

Edit: Also note the green box (progged ACE) for the ATL basin is now larger than even the WPAC green box on the map.

Just want to know, how often is the EURO right?

[cycloneye]

18z Euro AIFS reaches the Gulf.

[OuterBanker]

Interesting, gfs 18z splits tracks now with majority now north of PR. That is agreeing with euro. But, have not seen any models with sub 1k mb. Latest gfs and ai euro only go to the 6th.

Good thing because I voted for 11 to 20

[LarryWx]

Euro Weeklies ACE for August 18-24 up to 140% of 2005-24 avg.

Edit: Also note the green box (progged ACE) for the ATL basin is now larger than even the WPAC green box on the map.

Just want to know, how often is the EURO right?

m

Euro Weeklies last yr did pretty well from a few weeks out when it was consistent over many runs in a row. So, we’ll need to see if this e-cards activity hold up in future runs.

[StormWeather]

Euro Weeklies ACE for August 18-24 up to 140% of 2005-24 avg.

Edit: Also note the green box (progged ACE) for the ATL basin is now larger than even the WPAC green box on the map.

Just want to know, how often is the EURO right?

m

Euro Weeklies last yr did pretty well from a few weeks out when it was consistent over many runs in a row. So, we’ll need to see if this e-cards activity hold up in future runs.

That’s good to hear. Looking forward to seeing what accuracy the EURO has this season.

[StormWeather]

Euro Weeklies ACE for August 18-24 up to 140% of 2005-24 avg.

Edit: Also note the green box (progged ACE) for the ATL basin is now larger than even the WPAC green box on the map.

Just want to know, how often is the EURO right?

m

Euro Weeklies last yr did pretty well from a few weeks out when it was consistent over many runs in a row. So, we’ll need to see if this e-cards activity hold up in future runs.

What is 140% of the 2005-2024 Avg for the time of Aug 18-24 anyway?

[LarryWx]

Just want to know, how often is the EURO right?

m

Euro Weeklies last yr did pretty well from a few weeks out when it was consistent over many runs in a row. So, we’ll need to see if this e-cards activity hold up in future runs.

What is 140% of the 2005-2024 Avg for the time of Aug 18-24 anyway?

~12-13
Edit: This would imply the high likelihood of a H during then

[cycloneye]

The models have gone to no development of wave, but let's see when it emerges West Africa, how things evolve.



 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1949084915212918888

[WeatherBoy2000]

The models have gone to no development of wave, but let's see when it emerges West Africa, how things evolve.



 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1949084915212918888

Still a relatively decent ensemble signal on both the eps/gefs. The eps has slacked off, but the gefs has gone up.

[cycloneye]

At least there is something to watch at very long range if 12z Euro is right. This wave is behind the other one that models are having back and forth.