TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[m_ru]

looks like a slight wsw jog in the last frame or two

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

actually I think that might just be the convection expanding.

[gkrangers]

Do not use IR imagery to track the center, convection is decieving.

Use the Miami radar.

Appears due west.

[THead]

Whatever the above image is of, it looks ugly cus I don't want this one near me at all

That would be water temperatures.

Oops, whats that darn white line doing?
LOL

LOL, I'm hoping that was a joke cause it looks like it was making multiple fla. west coast landfalls!

[deltadog03]

yeah, close to due west...maybe a tad n or s at times...the convection is really wrapping

[skysummit]

Do not use IR imagery to track the center, convection is decieving.

Use the Miami radar.

Appears due west.

I'm using GR3 smoothed zoomed in and even in the Miami radar, it has appeared to jog a tad south of due west.....oh no, I said the "j" word! eeeek!

[JTD]

Will someone elaborate a bit more on the GFDL trending east this new run? How far east? Please give details

There is no new run yet. The 00z run is next, and should be out shortly.

Thanks. It semed strange that the new one would be out

[Foladar]

Whatever the above image is of, it looks ugly cus I don't want this one near me at all

That would be water temperatures.

Oops, whats that darn white line doing?
LOL

LOL, I'm hoping that was a joke cause it looks like it was making multiple fla. west coast landfalls!

I thought it was some model or something
Told you guys I can't read those darned things LOL

[gkrangers]

Do not use IR imagery to track the center, convection is decieving.

Use the Miami radar.

Appears due west.

I'm using GR3 smoothed zoomed in and even in the Miami radar, it has appeared to jog a tad south of due west.....oh no, I said the "j" word! eeeek!

The center is obscured by rain right now....so its very very difficult to asses wobbles and jogs...

[deltadog03]

it is..but, its coming in closer to the deep convection...so, that is a little concerning

[gkrangers]

it is..but, its coming in closer to the deep convection...so, that is a little concerning

Oh its absolutely getting better organized. The center obscured by rain is no big deal, just makes it hard to track precisely.

Its getting more symetrical.

[tronbunny]

Whatever the above image is of, it looks ugly cus I don't want this one near me at all

That would be water temperatures.

Oops, whats that darn white line doing?
LOL

That would be making our night a little more interesting!

[skysummit]

Do not use IR imagery to track the center, convection is decieving.

Use the Miami radar.

Appears due west.

I'm using GR3 smoothed zoomed in and even in the Miami radar, it has appeared to jog a tad south of due west.....oh no, I said the "j" word! eeeek!

The center is obscured by rain right now....so its very very difficult to arses wobbles and jogs...

Well, when I say "center" when looking at the radar, I'm looking at the center of the location where the rain is moving to the west on the north side and to the east on the south side. If I take that location and compare it to a few frames, it is a tad south of due west, but still in an overall westward motion because there's a few jogs to the north also....oh heck, you know what I mean.

Plus everyone sees different things when looking at these images for hours

[clfenwi]

GFS' 00Z run is very similar to the 12Z forecast as far as overall track (without regard to timing) goes... a strafing of the peninsular gulf coast of Florida with the center just barely getting over water. on its way north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_s.shtml

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The ridge looks pretty strong...I expect a turn to the west-southwest or west across Florida. I think the models are under est the high to the north. Take a look...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Patrick99]

That's one wobbly looking storm right now.

What are the SSTs like where it currently is? When does it hit the 90 degree water everyone is talking about?

[clfenwi]

Canadian model does not provide the entertainment it did last night.

Brings the storm northwest across the peninsula to Tampa or so before turning to the north and northeast... little to no time in the GOM...

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

loop here:

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... 12_....jpg

[superfly]

That's one wobbly looking storm right now.

What are the SSTs like where it currently is? When does it hit the 90 degree water everyone is talking about?

When it gets into the Gulf.

[deltadog03]

i agree matt...this ridge is very strong...and the shear tendendancy map is scary...shear is near to nothing...

[Patrick99]

Not implying any connection whatsoever...but does this look vaguely familar to the GFDL model track?

[skysummit]

i agree matt...this ridge is very strong...and the shear tendendancy map is scary...shear is near to nothing...

Yea, but could most of the models underestimate the ridge THAT much? I can see 1 or 2 doing so, but the majority of the models have her turning north right through that ridge.