Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #1

[cycloneye]

The TUTT barrier is established in the Eastern Caribbean right now so this wave when it arrives there it will go thru the same proccess as the front wave and that is a good deal of shear.

Water Vapor Image

[CHRISTY]

i agree guys this wave approaching the islands will be some to watch.....convection has been flareing up for a couple of days now.PS!lets see if convection holds threw today.

Here's a visible pic of the wave....

[HUC]

Agree wuth cycloneye;the upper level winds will drag this wave NO,just east of the islands.So this Tutt position will be important to watch in the coming days and weeks.I know that this feature is the proeminent feature for the eastern carribean iin terms of storm movement:in it's actual position,no big problems for us despite the cyclonic activity..!!!
Any coments???

[CHRISTY]

IR IMAGE OF THE WAVE.....

[rockyman]

No mention of 50W wave (or anything else) on 1130AM TWO

[rockyman]

Looking at visible loops, the lower level clouds are racing ahead to the west faster than the convection...the system will have to slow down beore it will be able to organize (and by then, the upper level conditions may be more hostile).

[drezee]

It is basically shearing itself. It is getting pushed by the surge of SAL behind it. It will have to wait on development.

[wxman57]

Looked more interesting earlier this morning. Could see a mid-level circulation then. But now it appears to be weakening. Here's a 1445Z image. Not much of any MLC left. Appears to be on the leading edge of a dust cloud, too.

I don't think it'll develop in the Atlantic, and most likely not in the eastern Caribbean, either. May have to keep an eye on it in 6-7 days when it reaches the Bahamas or the NW Caribbean.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Shear is decreasing in the area around the system, but ahead of it the shear in the Caribbean is to high for anymore development.

[gatorcane]

Just the fact this system made it this far in June is amazing to me....

[wxman57]

Just the fact this system made it this far in June is amazing to me....

Last year, tropical waves were entering the Caribbean Sea along 15N in mid to late May. It's not really so unusual for waves to make it this far north in June. It WOULD be unusual for it to encounter favorable conitions where it could develop. But it looks like that probably won't happen.

[rockyman]

Just like yesterday, it appears that as the cloud tops are warming on the east side of the system, they are flaring up on the west side....this time near 51.5W...we'll see in the next few hours if this is another full-fledged flareup (say that 10 times).

[rockyman]

Pretty detailed info about the 51W wave on the 2pm TWD (see TWO/TWD thread)...NHC seems interested...let's see if the wave shows up on the 430pm TWO

[WindRunner]

I'll be waiting for the 5:30 TWO

It should be mentioning something, though, as they usually use the TWO to forewarn the islands of any impending strong waves, and this one is close enough now that it deserves mentioning.

[rockyman]

A middle to lower level circulation seems to be establishing itself on the south end of the wave, near 11/53

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just the fact this system made it this far in June is amazing to me....

Last year, tropical waves were entering the Caribbean Sea along 15N in mid to late May. It's not really so unusual for waves to make it this far north in June. It WOULD be unusual for it to encounter favorable conitions where it could develop. But it looks like that probably won't happen.

I don't expect a 28 storm season. But I do expect a 15 to 18 storm season. With a 180 to 200 mph cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico or two. But yes the SAL is weaker overall then it was last year. In shear over the central to eastern Atlatnic is to. In which should give us a nice cape verde season.

[Cyclenall]

I looked at the models are there seems to be nothing to note. I'm bored with the tropics right now. No action in any basin currently.

[WindRunner]

I looked at the models are there seems to be nothing to note. I'm bored with the tropics right now. No action in any basin currently.

Get used to it . . . it's only been 6 days without activity . . . that's nothing compared to the beginning of August last year . . . that was 3 weeks with about this much to watch IIRC.

[Cyclenall]

I looked at the models are there seems to be nothing to note. I'm bored with the tropics right now. No action in any basin currently.

Get used to it . . . it's only been 6 days without activity . . . that's nothing compared to the beginning of August last year . . . that was 3 weeks with about this much to watch IIRC.

Link: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Nope, during those 3 weeks of August there were Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic, compared to right now where there are no TC's in the Atlantic.

[SouthFloridawx]

Pretty low windshear out there in the atlantic and the pacific.