Convection Near Bahamas

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

The low should be inland over FL in 72 hours and moving WNW.

So we may be looking at a Depression or Tropical Storm threatning New Orleans?

[skysummit]

I just looked at the latest WV Loop. There doesn't seem to be that much shear over it any longer. The conditions look kind of good compared to what it looked like earlier and yesterday.

[boca]

Its hard to tell but it looks like that ULL near 27.5N is moving slowly west towards Florida.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

I want a drought buster.

[skysummit]

Well whattaknow! Another swirl! It also looks to be in the mid layers.

[boca]

Skysummit lets have a contest on many many swirls we can pick out out of this poor excuse of a system in the Bahamas. The winner will get much needed rainfall from it.

[Aquawind]

The winner will get much needed rainfall from it.

Sounds Dreamy..

[skysummit]

It's hard for me to tell, but I don't believe that swirl I posted has anything to do with this "Convection Near Bahamas". It looks to be on a nice WNW track.

Look here, and look at the Vis Floater 1 loop at right:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[tailgater]

It's hard for me to tell, but I don't believe that swirl I posted has anything to do with this "Convection Near Bahamas". It looks to be on a nice WNW track.

Look here, and look at the Vis Floater 1 loop at right:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Beat me to it, I just fixin to post that the swirl NE of P.R. could add some energy to the Bahama system

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

The low should be inland over FL in 72 hours and moving WNW.

So we may be looking at a Depression or Tropical Storm threatning New Orleans?

That depends on a few things:

1. which way the storm moves after 72 hours.
2. How strong the storm becomes (TD? TS?).
3. Where exactly the center forms and makes landfall.

[Ivanhater]

Wow, the tune has definitely changed since the last time I checked on this yesterday

[duris]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

The low should be inland over FL in 72 hours and moving WNW.

So we may be looking at a Depression or Tropical Storm threatning New Orleans?

That depends on a few things:

1. which way the storm moves after 72 hours.
2. How strong the storm becomes (TD? TS?).
3. Where exactly the center forms and makes landfall.

I'm sorry, but the correct answer was NO!!!! We'll just keep the drought thank you under the circumstances. I have no grass to kill anyway. Seriously, if anything shows NO as a target, I like it this far out timewise.

[curtadams]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

The low should be inland over FL in 72 hours and moving WNW.

So we may be looking at a Depression or Tropical Storm threatning New Orleans?

So far the models have it turning N and then NE. The furthest west so far is the Panhandle. Consensus is that it doesn't even reach the gulf. Models are poor with these unborn storms, though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

The low should be inland over FL in 72 hours and moving WNW.

So we may be looking at a Depression or Tropical Storm threatning New Orleans?

That depends on a few things:

1. which way the storm moves after 72 hours.
2. How strong the storm becomes (TD? TS?).
3. Where exactly the center forms and makes landfall.

I'm sorry, but the correct answer was NO!!!! We'll just keep the drought thank you under the circumstances. I have no grass to kill anyway. Seriously, if anything shows NO as a target, I like it this far out timewise.

I wouldn't worry too much. This system will likely be weak at best and will probably die out once it hits FL. Even if it did hang on, any threat to N.O. would likely be very minimal. Also, as curtadams pointed out, the chance of this getting that far west is slim right now.

[Stratusxpeye]

Chances are looking better for this system as the day progresses. I thought we would have an invest before todays end but I'm not completely sur eon it still give it 50% chance. Shear is decreasing and system has been ever slowly rganizing it's structure.

[Aquawind]

Yeah it's more than just a few things..few BIG things..

[Extremeweatherguy]

:lol: Yeah it's more than just a few things..few BIG things..

lol. I never said they were small things. I doubt this will make it to N.O. though.

[AnnularCane]

Skysummit lets have a contest on many many swirls we can pick out out of this poor excuse of a system in the Bahamas. The winner will get much needed rainfall from it.

Only if the winner is nice and doesn't make fun of the way the system looks.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree with many of the posters. There need to be a defined low level center, before ANYONE can EVEN GUESS where it might be going. We are still in wait and see right now.

[wxman57]

Here's an 18Z surface plot with satellite. Definitely no LLC, pressure is very high in the area. I'm looking at a WV loop and there's quite a bit of SW shear across it today. Don't see any sign of shear decreasing. If anything, it's stronger than yesterday.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/bahamas.gif

I am concerned that we may well see an LLC develop in 24-36 hours - more likely on Saturday as it begins drifting westerly toward Florida. But I don't see ideal conditions for development at all. For Florida and/or Georgia, it looks to be a rain event. However, if it does take a more southerly track and make it into the Gulf, then there may be more of a potential for strengthening to a stronger TS.

Today's estimate of chances:
Tropical Depression -- 40-50% (up from 20-30% yesterday)
TS -- 20-30%
H -- 5-10%

[rockyman]

I mentioned this morning that the northern swirl was going to circulate southwest around the larger mid-level center...this evening, it appears that is what is taking place...I'm guessing that the center is going to consolidate closing to 27N as the shear relaxes...then start moving west toward the Florida coast.