99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[curtadams]

From what I can see, this invest has got to plow through a lot of dry air before we'll see much more significant development. I doubt the NHC will TD it until it clears the dry air (if it holds together through the dry air).

there is not that much dry air around it... look at the sat image posted by me above... the air is not that dry.. and besides, dry air does not stop the NHC from upgrading something... the big key right now is, no closed low... it is open to the west from what i can see..

WV shows upper air, mostly. Saharan air can be dry at lower levels but overlain by moist upper air. We've seen a lot of nascent systems off Africa evaporate almost instantly when they suck up that hidden SAL. This system is further south but it's drawn air south to it and I think it's pulled some in. That's why convection is weakening and almost gone on the north half.

[storms in NC]

Here's a McIDAS image:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/99La.gif

I believe I can see some mid-level rotation where I placed the X. Probably no rotation at the surface. Looks like it's becoming elongated now (the convection). Doesn't look nearly impressive now as it did on the last visible images yesterday. May be a 10-20% shot at development, though.

As far south this is it will go into venezuela. Any one seeing anything that would turn this north some?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Development is appearing to be less likey now with 99L. Too much SAL and shear could make this go poof.

[x-y-no]

From what I can see, this invest has got to plow through a lot of dry air before we'll see much more significant development. I doubt the NHC will TD it until it clears the dry air (if it holds together through the dry air).

there is not that much dry air around it... look at the sat image posted by me above... the air is not that dry.. and besides, dry air does not stop the NHC from upgrading something... the big key right now is, no closed low... it is open to the west from what i can see..

WV shows upper air, mostly. Saharan air can be dry at lower levels but overlain by moist upper air. We've seen a lot of nascent systems off Africa evaporate almost instantly when they suck up that hidden SAL. This system is further south but it's drawn air south to it and I think it's pulled some in. That's why convection is weakening and almost gone on the north half.

The SAL hasn't been particularly hidden so far this year!

I agree that dry air is affecting the northern portion of this system. But as far as I can determine, the environment behind the wave is reasonably moist up to about 15N. So as long as it doesn't gain latitude too quickly, I think it has the best shot of any Atlantic wave so far this year.

[HurricaneHunter914]

But if it doesn't gain latitude at all, then 99L will run straight into SA.

[SouthFloridawx]

From what I can see, this invest has got to plow through a lot of dry air before we'll see much more significant development. I doubt the NHC will TD it until it clears the dry air (if it holds together through the dry air).

there is not that much dry air around it... look at the sat image posted by me above... the air is not that dry.. and besides, dry air does not stop the NHC from upgrading something... the big key right now is, no closed low... it is open to the west from what i can see..

WV shows upper air, mostly. Saharan air can be dry at lower levels but overlain by moist upper air. We've seen a lot of nascent systems off Africa evaporate almost instantly when they suck up that hidden SAL. This system is further south but it's drawn air south to it and I think it's pulled some in. That's why convection is weakening and almost gone on the north half.

The SAL hasn't been particularly hidden so far this year!

I agree that dry air is affecting the northern portion of this system. But as far as I can determine, the environment behind the wave is reasonably moist up to about 15N. So as long as it doesn't gain latitude too quickly, I think it has the best shot of any Atlantic wave so far this year.

One thing is certain is that with each passing wave they have gotten better and better looking.

[mike815]

yes that is true each wave has been more potent then the last there is no reason at all to write this one off at all. The potential is still very much there for this to develope just not as fast as maybe some of us were thinking.

[x-y-no]

But if it doesn't gain latitude at all, then 99L will run straight into SA.

There's a lot of distance to go before that happens. I do expect it'll gain enough latitude to get into the Caribbean. What the upper air conditions will be like by the time it gets there - I haven't a clue.

[ConvergenceZone]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200607

This Blog from JeffMasters on wunderground.com has some interesting photos and discussion about the wave. (sorry if this has already been posted).

[NONAME]

I Dont See why some of you are Saying this wave WON'T devlop Dr. Masters Say's devlopment is possible the NHC Does and Accuweather does.

Sorry typo should have been won't instead of will.

[Scorpion]

Development is appearing to be less likey now with 99L. Too much SAL and shear could make this go poof.

Where is this mythical shear you are talking about?

[HurricaneHunter914]

There is 20-25 kt shear in front of the Disturbance.

[ConvergenceZone]

The shear will probably keep it from developing in the short term, until after it crosses it, then we will probably see some action, and the shear amount can change by the time the wave reaches it. I've seen that happen alot.

[JonathanBelles]

ill now give it a 30% chance compared to a 50% last night

[ConvergenceZone]

ill now give it a 30% chance compared to a 50% last night

in the SHORT TERM, I agree.

[HURAKAN]

Something that I have learned of 7 years of tracking tropical systems is that you can't jump on the first day that a disturbance pops up, and immediately start talking about when it will become a TD, TS, H, MH,.... Every disturbance should be watched, I agree, but "persistance is the key", and we have been trying to make that a motto for a few years now. I know everyone is eager for something to develop and track in the Atlantic, but give time to time (tiempo al tiempo).

[Scorpion]

There is 20-25 kt shear in front of the Disturbance.

There is 15-20 kts of shear, and that is not enough to impede development.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB's post today said he thinks this is already a TD.

[HURAKAN]

JB's post today said he thinks this is already a TD.

The day his opinion and the NHC's opinion meets, hallelujah!!!

[Derek Ortt]

There is no closed surface circulation; thus, no TD

Also, mets can disagree with each other. very common in the scientific field. This met does not agree with Dr Masters or NHC at this time. Development does not seem likely due to the very poor surface organization, and a southward intrusion of the SAL. Any development would be slow