99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[wxman57]

Next.

You forgot to say: "NO depression for you! NEXT!" (Seinfeld, soup nazi)

[Weatherfreak000]

Next.

So much for the Cat 4 over S. Florida right Brent?

[Brent]

Next.

So much for the Cat 4 over S. Florida right Brent?

LOL! I guess not.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For what it's worth, there is now a lot of new convection firing around the low. Not saying it will develop, but I still don't think this is a non-event....yet (I might give in and agree if it still looks bad tomorrow).

[Dean4Storms]

Extremeweatherguy, that is not very cold cloud tops, for it to develop it needs alot deeper and broader convection than a few popcorn type storms.

You can tell its been a year since most of us have seen a TW develop into a TC!

We are getting hilarious.

[Weatherfreak000]

For what it's worth, there is now a lot of new convection firing around the low. Not saying it will develop, but I still don't think this is a non-event....yet (I might give in and agree if it still looks bad tomorrow).

Not really, scattered weak convection. And it's not wrapping around the "center", it's around the western section. Getting better organized? Not really. A jump from a 1.5 out of ten to a 1.6 isn't signficiant.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For what it's worth, there is now a lot of new convection firing around the low. Not saying it will develop, but I still don't think this is a non-event....yet (I might give in and agree if it still looks bad tomorrow).

Not really, scattered weak convection. And it's not wrapping around the "center", it's around the western section. Getting better organized? Not really. A jump from a 1.5 out of ten to a 1.6 isn't signficiant.

I meant "a lot" compared to earlier. This afternoon there was little to no convection around the circulation, but this evening there is a definite increase. Not saying this will develop, just pointing out that it doesn't seem to be getting any weaker than it was earlier. Here is a loop so you can see what i'm talking about:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the 8:05pm TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 8N47W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW/WAVE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 46W-49W. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

[cheezyWXguy]

wow...TAFB looks to still be on the positive side

[curtadams]

I think the NHC has it pegged. This is neither the next Ivan nor a doomed wave. There's a vigorous low (look how it has twisted the ICTZ!), warm water, and fairly moderate shear. So far dry air entrainment has kept it under wraps. But give it some moist air and it's a go. There's a lot of dry air out there - but it's a long way from the Sahara now and not everything in the Atlantic will suppress convection. In particular, remember how vigorous the convection in the ICTZ ahead of it has been so far. So IMO it can develop if it finds some moist air - which isn't expected but is certainly possible.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If the Diurnal Maximum can come through tonight then we might see a weak TD, but that's just it.

[Opal storm]

Wow,it's amazing how much the mood has changed since that night 99L arrived.Even I though this was going to be the first big storm of the season,but things change so quickly in the tropics.I'm not saying it's over but right now it's not looking so good.A couple of days ago many thought this would be a named storm by now,not a disorganized wave with little convection.

[wxman57]

From the 8:05pm TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 8N47W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW/WAVE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 46W-49W. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

It would be interesting if the NHC would quantify the chance of development. Is it 1%, 5%, 30%, 90%? What does "potential for development" really mean? Our clients want us to state the % chance of a disturbance becoming a TS and/or a hurricane on a day-by-day basis over the coming week. That's not so easy to quantify. I'd like to see the NHC make such a 7-day chance of development forecast for each disturbance. Yep, it would be real interesting to see what they really think about those chances.

[wxman57]

Here's this afternoon's quikSCAT pass. In my professional opinion, it shows absolutely NO LLC. Actually, it shows no circulation of any kind as of about 21Z:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 1_99ds.png

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's this afternoon's quikSCAT pass. Not too much help, to say the least:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 1_99ds.png

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest IR image continues to show more and more convection firing and cooling cloud tops near/around the center of this system. (take a look at the top of this page for the image). 99L just may be starting to come back.

[cheezyWXguy]

for the first time today i see red associated w/ this system, although its on the northern band...there maybe popcorn storms, but its a start, besides, theyre expanding slowly and a tiny orange blow up smack-dab over the center has formed...

[abajan]

Latest IR image continues to show more and more convection firing and cooling cloud tops near/around the center of this system. (take a look at the top of this page for the image). 99L just may be starting to come back.

It may just be one of those "diurnal cycle" phases but I'm inclined to agree with you.

Don't be caught napping, people!

[caneflyer]

Here's this afternoon's quikSCAT pass. In my professional opinion, it shows absolutely NO LLC. Actually, it shows no circulation of any kind as of about 21Z:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 1_99ds.png

That's because you aren't looking at the QuikSCAT ambiguities. They clearly show the closed circulation centered at 10.2N 47.5W at 21Z. Never rely on the retrieved vectors to determine the existence, or lack of existence, of a closed circulation in a tropical wave.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060730 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060730 0000 060730 1200 060731 0000 060731 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.0N 48.5W 10.6N 51.2W 11.3N 53.5W 12.0N 55.8W
BAMM 10.0N 48.5W 10.9N 51.1W 11.9N 53.4W 12.9N 55.5W
A98E 10.0N 48.5W 10.9N 51.9W 11.6N 55.0W 12.2N 57.9W
LBAR 10.0N 48.5W 10.8N 51.9W 11.9N 55.1W 13.0N 58.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060801 0000 060802 0000 060803 0000 060804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 58.1W 13.7N 62.8W 15.5N 67.3W 17.8N 70.5W
BAMM 13.9N 57.4W 15.5N 60.9W 17.7N 63.9W 20.0N 66.2W
A98E 12.7N 60.4W 13.9N 65.0W 15.3N 69.1W 17.1N 72.5W
LBAR 14.2N 61.3W 15.8N 66.8W 16.5N 71.1W 24.8N 71.4W
SHIP 41KTS 49KTS 53KTS 57KTS
DSHP 41KTS 49KTS 53KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 48.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 9.2N LONM12 = 44.8W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 8.7N LONM24 = 41.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$


00:00z BAM Models.Yes,another run of the models came out for 99L.First the movement is now 285 WNW and second the winds are increased to 25kts.