Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow if we didn't have recon I would think this would be classified a TS just based on satellite images. Anyway, if (big if) this survives the trek accross the Carribean I think it has GOM written all over it. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

even with the high pressure which is predicted to build in? While I believe it has an OUTSIDE chance of being a GOM, I wouldn't say that it has GOM written all over it...

[Frank2]

It might look impressive at the upper levels (which it did earlier), but, if it does not have a closed circulation, even with 50 knot winds, then the winds are just, as the old saying goes "screaming easterlies", so...

Frank

P.S. We had tropical storm conditions here yesterday afternoon (3" of rain in 90 minutes, with gusty winds), due to the tropical wave that was to our southeast, but, it dissipated so quickly due to dry northeasterlies (per Steven Lyons), that two hours later you wouldn't even know it happened - that's why the NHC needs to wait - persistence is a very critical factor in classifing a system.

[ConvergenceZone]

It might look impressive at the upper levels (which it did earlier), but, if it does not have a closed circulation, even with 50 knot winds, then the winds are just, as the old saying goes "screaming easterlies", so...

Frank

that's okay, just means they will probabl bypass the depression phase once it gets upgraded, fine by me

[HURAKAN]

Now is when it needs the circulation it had before.

[Nimbus]

Pretty funny those clouds along the south side of the inner curl are like 2 knots away from being from the west which would give birth to Debbie!

If this system spins up we may get to see some of those stair stepping wobbles we saw so much of last year as Debbie tries to buck the ridge. Remember the models currently are keeping the storm on the weak side as they usually do with an undeveloped wave.

[rockyman]

Looking at the latest IR loops, this low level wave is definitely racing ahead of the upper level support...That wonderful "swirl" that made everyone so excited is (once again) just a dying MLC that shows the best spin as it is collapsing...

[Frank2]

Rockyman,

We had tropical storm conditions here yesterday afternoon (3" of rain in 90 minutes, with gusty winds), due to the tropical wave that was to our southeast, but, it dissipated so quickly due to dry northeasterlies (per Steven Lyons), that two hours later you wouldn't even know it happened - that's why the NHC needs to wait - persistence is a very critical factor in classifying a system.

Frank

[ConvergenceZone]

stating that this is not going to effect the US mainland or that it won't enter the gulf based on one model run, and a LONG LONG range forecast is the most ignorant statement I have ever seen on this site..


The fact is that until this system gets it's TRUE center and the models initiate it properly, they are less reliable than normal.. additionally, the models are not useful after 72 hours in OPTIMAL conditions...

the truth is we don't know where it's gonig to end up.... YET

I'm only inclinded to make a statement like I did when ALMOST EVERY SINGLE MODEL IS POINTED INTO THAT DIRECTION, which they are....Yes it can change, but you can see the high pressure building in.

[Derek Ortt]

Dont count on a slowdown until this reaches the W Carib

The SAL is following this. The SAL contains a low-level easterly wind surge, and causes these systems to fly at about 30KT to the west. I would not expect this to abate for at least 48 hours more

[HURAKAN]

For now we just have to wait and see how the system develops over the next 12 to 24 hours. If the system slows down, and current atmospheric conditions remain or get more favorable, I'm inclined to see Debby come from this. If the system continues at 30 mph or worse, and shear worsens, then Debby will have to wait. Time will tell.

[Cape Verde]

It looks like the intensity models suggest that this invest could reach tropical storm status within about 12 hours. That's amazing since the closed surface low hasn't been detected yet.

[wxman57]

To give you an idea where it may eventually go, here's the 700-400mb mean flow for 18Z Monday. Now I think it could already be over the Yucatan by then and moving W-WSW, but I put an X where the models are generally placing it at 18Z Monday. Note the strong ridge over the Gulf. That should keep it on a westerly track.

Latest satellites indicates some weakening of the MLC as convection is moving away to the northwest and west.

[dwg71]

It looks like the intensity models suggest that this invest could reach tropical storm status within about 12 hours. That's amazing since the closed surface low hasn't been detected yet.

What would be even more amazing would be if "intensity models" were even remotely reliable. It's the hardest thing to predict. Track/path were getting better, intensity that's another story.

[PTrackerLA]

Next!

[HURAKAN]

Next!

Why next? This is the closest thing to Debby you will find now in the Atlantic.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Next!

Too many people are writing this off already.

[dwg71]

No, my Aunt Debby is on the Disney cruise right now

We wont have TS Debby for a while IMO.

[bvigal]

If someone already posted this, sorry. I think I've read all the pages.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 091731Z AUG 06//
WTNT KNGU 091801
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/082338Z AUG 06//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT KNGU 091802)//
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 225 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 53.0W TO 15.9N 68.6W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­AGERY AT 091800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 101801Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 96.9W.//

[Cape Verde]

What would be even more amazing would be if "intensity models" were even remotely reliable. It's the hardest thing to predict. Track/path were getting better, intensity that's another story.

I don't even pretend to understand intensity models, but I do agree that they often are wrong.

The NHC often mentions them in their discussions, so they must have some value.

[SouthFloridawx]

If intense convection continues to fire there could be a new LLC forming somewhere but, remember we are not sure where. They indicated that they didn't find one but, I'm sure if convection persists we'll see another flight.

FYI this is the best looking thing in the atlantic right now so, why not watch it. What is it with people saying "Next".. all the time.