Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[LaBreeze]

Any indications as to what the ridge might be doing in a few days?

[ROCK]

Derek or any promet, any idea on future steering currents with this?

Mid level rotation increasing significantly. No clear sign of an LLC though. Convection increasing rapidly. Upper-level outflow looks excellent. I think it's going to develop over the next 24-48 hours.

Long-term track? My money is to the NW Caribbean Monday night and then WNW toward northern MX or extreme south TX. A track similar to Emily, perhaps. Question is - how strong will the ridge over NE TX remain by early next week? It's been hanging in firm most of the summer.

I will lean that way but any weakness in that ridge look out LA-FL.....

[skysummit]

I knew wxman57 would say Mexico or South Texas! However, with a weakness developing to the northwest/north, I doubt that'll happen....unless Wxman57, you don't see that weakness developing?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Derek or any promet, any idea on future steering currents with this?

Mid level rotation increasing significantly. No clear sign of an LLC though. Convection increasing rapidly. Upper-level outflow looks excellent. I think it's going to develop over the next 24-48 hours.

Long-term track? My money is to the NW Caribbean Monday night and then WNW toward northern MX or extreme south TX. A track similar to Emily, perhaps. Question is - how strong will the ridge over NE TX remain by early next week? It's been hanging in firm most of the summer.

I will lean that way but any weakness in that ridge look out LA-FL.....

Depends how far North it gets IMO...

[Air Force Met]

WNW to NW for a while

Yep...then it depends on which model is right in days 5 and on. GFS/CMC places a blocking ridge to the north and would drive the system into Mexico, the EURO brings a trof into the central US and this would allow the system to swing into Texas or LA.

[gatorcane]

I knew wxman57 would say Mexico or South Texas! However, with a weakness developing to the northwest/north, I doubt that'll happen....unless Wxman57, you don't see that weakness developing?

What weakness are you talking about?

[x-y-no]

Derek or any promet, any idea on future steering currents with this?

Not a pro met, but my comment is that even the GFS, which has a habit of eroding mid-level ridges over storms too fast, shows strong ridging at the 500mb level through 4 days and more. Euro is even stronger with the ridging.

That should keep the steering generally WNW throughout the period.

[jlauderdal]

You Florida guys are cruel!

Leave our Texas homeboy EWG alone ... so what if he's out at Home Depot right now getting plywood and a backup generator for Ernesto.

we are slap happy after getting pounded the last two seasons. i have a brand new briggs and stratton 8350 watt generator our good friend ewg can borrow if the going gets tough.

[Damar91]

Maybe I'm wrong( I usually am ) ,but this seems to have Wilma written all over it. Except without the cold front.

[CrazyC83]

Look at the SST's below this blob and up ahead:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6234ca.jpg
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 4atsst.png

Notice the dark red spot on the first map similar to that of the Loop Current. The water temperature is about 4-6°C warmer than that under Debby. Can anyone say rapid intensification???

Whatever it does, don't get off guard here.

[Johnny]

. so what if he's out at Home Depot right now getting plywood and a backup generator for Ernesto.

LOL!!! I just spit chewed up broccoli all over my monitor!

[Damar91]

Yeah, this thing gets anywhere near Florida or the gulf and look out!

[HURAKAN]

They are not to scale, it doesn't show much.

FAIR & SQUARE:

[jasons2k]

Holy Crap!

[Damar91]

:eek: Holy Crap!

Our first "holy crap" for this system!

[Trugunzn]

Look at the SST's below this blob and up ahead:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6234ca.jpg
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 4atsst.png

Notice the dark red spot on the first map similar to that of the Loop Current. The water temperature is about 4-6°C warmer than that under Debby. Can anyone say rapid intensification???

Whatever it does, don't get off guard here.

those are the water that made wilma from tropical storm to cat 5 in one day.

[WmE]

Heilige Scheiße!

[CrazyC83]

Look at the SST's below this blob and up ahead:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6234ca.jpg
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 4atsst.png

Notice the dark red spot on the first map similar to that of the Loop Current. The water temperature is about 4-6°C warmer than that under Debby. Can anyone say rapid intensification???

Whatever it does, don't get off guard here.

those are the water that made wilma from tropical storm to cat 5 in one day.

Shear is also expected to decrease in front of it. http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

This looks pretty ominous...definitely the worst potential so far this year...

[cycloneye]

Let's please try not to post one word or only emotcions posts as important information is posted at this thread and gets scattered or lost with those posts,thanks.

Cycloneye Moderator.

[Canelaw99]

Maybe I'm wrong( I usually am ) ,but this seems to have Wilma written all over it. Except without the cold front.

Don't even go there damar lol....Wilma's a bad word 'round these parts