Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

[gatorcane]

And life along the coast goes on as usual - as normal as normal can be.

Yeah I know how you are feeling I want this thing away from South Florida and everybody else in the GOM...

[cycloneye]

about what time could I expect to see an aircraft recon tomorrow (if still needed)

i dont know, sorry, but if I am correct, they have decided to send recon in regardless o fwhat happens overniht tonight.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

The above from the 10:30 TWO.

They will go tommorow afternoon as at the outlook the words (If Necessary) dont appear there.

Well...let's be honest...if it falls apart overnight...they will cancel the flight....even with those words missing.

[Air Force Met]

Ok I am kind of confused here. NHC and other mets are stating that shear is abating but, looking at this shear analysis from CIMSS site there is pretty good shear to it's north.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Tendency

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Shear Analysis

It's not moving north.

...and as it gains altitude...the shear lessens as the high moves with it some.

[cycloneye]

about what time could I expect to see an aircraft recon tomorrow (if still needed)

i dont know, sorry, but if I am correct, they have decided to send recon in regardless o fwhat happens overniht tonight.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

The above from the 10:30 TWO.

They will go tommorow afternoon as at the outlook the words (If Necessary) dont appear there.

Well...let's be honest...if it falls apart overnight...they will cancel the flight....even with those words missing.

Of Course AFM.

[canetracker]

Bob Break said shear?

Where does he get some of his forecasts from? Nothing I have seen indicates shear

Ok, I saw the broadcast. All he said was that there is CURRENTLY some SW shear in the Carribean, and that we'll have to see if that persists. He didn't say that this would spell the end for this system. Only that the shear is one of the things he'll be monitoring. He actually said that he'll have to watch this one.

His broadcasts are almost always disarming... that's just his style. Seems that he's less of an alarmist after going with non-stop coverage for Lilly... a storm that ended up well to our west in a weakened state. He caught some flack for that. Just a guess.

I saw the broadcast too. I think Bob Breck knows there is a chance of development and that this storm could end up in the GOM. However, he is broadcasting to an audience who is still recovering from great disaster and is panic stricken. I think he is just trying not to create panic over a situation that is too far out to predict right now.

[TSmith274]

Bob Breck in NOLA said it shouldn't be anything to worry about because it'll soon be encountering lots of shear. I tell ya....that boy will never learn.

If he really said that which I doubt he did, then he wouldn't be on TV.

He didn't. See my post on pg 21.

[miamicanes177]

Ok I am kind of confused here. NHC and other mets are stating that shear is abating but, looking at this shear analysis from CIMSS site there is pretty good shear to it's north.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Tendency

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Shear Analysis

i dont know why its supposed to stay in a low shear enviornment but it is. And it is not being sheared now because it has good outflow. Can someone that knows explain why it is being protected from the shear?

[skysummit]

Bob Breck in NOLA said it shouldn't be anything to worry about because it'll soon be encountering lots of shear. I tell ya....that boy will never learn.

If he really said that which I doubt he did, then he wouldn't be on TV.

He didn't. See my post on pg 21.

Sorry for not being totally true...I didn't see it myself...heard it from a birdie

[Derek Ortt]

the idea of no development once in the E Caribbean wont hold water this time. If conditions are favorable, as they were with Dennis and will be wiht this, this can develop, even if it is just a wave when it enters

We have seen quite a few storms in recent years develop in the E Carib

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok I am kind of confused here. NHC and other mets are stating that shear is abating but, looking at this shear analysis from CIMSS site there is pretty good shear to it's north.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Tendency

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Shear Analysis

It's not moving north.

...and as it gains altitude...the shear lessens as the high moves with it some.

You are refering to the ULH in the Eastern Caribbean and the Western Atlantic right?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

[CalmBeforeStorm]

one thing to think about is that if it does not develop before getting to the islands and entering the Eastern Caribbean, the chances it will develop go drastically down based on climatology - the Eastern Caribbean is known to be a graveyard for waves that can't get going farther east.

Just something to think about - although I think this one will develop just before getting into the Eastern Caribbean so it won't matter

I agree and at the rate it's going it will be in the E. Carib. by noon tommorrow. I do think it's forming a LLC now, though.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

the idea of no development once in the E Caribbean wont hold water this time. If conditions are favorable, as they were with Dennis and will be wiht this, this can develop, even if it is just a wave when it enters

We have seen quite a few storms in recent years develop in the E Carib

I remember one, though I can't recall the name. What were the others?

[Josephine96]

Tomorrow we may see an STDS get issued if they find something before a scheduled advisory time..

I'm assuming if they say already it's a " strong tropical wave".. they may find something, we'll see..

[Cyclenall]

Bob Breck in NOLA said it shouldn't be anything to worry about because it'll soon be encountering lots of shear. I tell ya....that boy will never learn.

If he really said that which I doubt he did, then he wouldn't be on TV.

He didn't. See my post on pg 21.

I saw your post on that. That's why I said "I doubt he said that".

[Air Force Met]

i dont know why its supposed to stay in a low shear enviornment but it is. And it is not being sheared now because it has good outflow. Can someone that knows explain why it is being protected from the shear?

I think the high is supposed to move along with it somewhat...haven't looked that closely at it. I don't think it will run into the TUTT though.

However, upper level winds are the worst forecasted by the models...BY FAR. Not enough data in the upper levels to properly initialize the models.

I don't think the environment will be as ideal as the ships and GFDL see it though...looks to me like the high will be a little to the east of it...which means it might have a little southerly shear to deal with for a few days...

[SouthFloridawx]

00 Hour of the 00Z GFS 200mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

[chrisnnavarre]

the idea of no development once in the E Caribbean wont hold water this time. If conditions are favorable, as they were with Dennis and will be wiht this, this can develop, even if it is just a wave when it enters

We have seen quite a few storms in recent years develop in the E Carib

I remember one, though I can't recall the name. What were the others?

Ivan was one...

"Despite a relatively low latitude (9.7°N), development continued and it is estimated that the cyclone became Tropical Storm Ivan just 12 h later at 0600 UTC 3 September. Ivan continued on a generally westward motion south of 10°N latitude and steadily strengthened, becoming a hurricane at 0600 UTC 5 September centered about 1000 n mi east of Tobago in the southern Windward Islands."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ivan.shtml?


Great, just great....

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS has about 15KT of shear over it. It's just that the other parameters are so favorable

[CalmBeforeStorm]

the idea of no development once in the E Caribbean wont hold water this time. If conditions are favorable, as they were with Dennis and will be wiht this, this can develop, even if it is just a wave when it enters

We have seen quite a few storms in recent years develop in the E Carib

I remember one, though I can't recall the name. What were the others?

Ivan was one...

"Despite a relatively low latitude (9.7°N), development continued and it is estimated that the cyclone became Tropical Storm Ivan just 12 h later at 0600 UTC 3 September. Ivan continued on a generally westward motion south of 10°N latitude and steadily strengthened, becoming a hurricane at 0600 UTC 5 September centered about 1000 n mi east of Tobago in the southern Windward Islands."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ivan.shtml?


Great, just great....

Ivan was the one I remembered but I can't recall any others.

[HURAKAN]

I'll go to sleep now and wait until tomorrow to see how the diurnal maximum works on this system. Tomorrow could be an exciting day.