Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[JTD]

OK I am beyond confused. My questions are:

1. The HPC outlook posted earlier in this thread said the HPC preference is to hold this as an open wave through Monday. So, no upgrade to a t.d. at 5 p.m. then? But the HPC is different than the NHC right? If it's going to stay weak, why are the models all over it and the SHIPS bringing this up to 89 kts up from 84 and 86 yesterday?

2. I've read that the wave is looking horrible and that the convection is re-firing and the system is looking very good. Which is it?

3. From my understanding, Recon hasn't quite been able to close off a closed circulation? Is that correct?

4. The pro-mets seemed bullish on development yesterday? Are you still?

Can somebody please tell me if we are likely to have an upgrade any time soon, what you view the state of the system to be at the moment, etc?

[Stormcenter]

Someone just let me know when it's over so I can tell the contractor whether to sheetrock or bother rebuilding my garage (which is supposed to happen about a week from now, of course).

Go ahead and rebuild, you can't live life in fear or you can have him wait for at least 3-4 weeks. I think after that you may be in the clear for 2006. Good luck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Damar91]

OK I am beyond confused. My questions are:

1. The HPC outlook posted earlier in this thread said the HPC preference is to hold this as an open wave through Monday. So, no upgrade to a t.d. at 5 p.m. then? But the HPC is different than the NHC right? If it's going to stay weak, why are the models all over it and the SHIPS bringing this up to 89 kts up from 84 and 86 yesterday?

2. I've read that the wave is looking horrible and that the convection is re-firing and the system is looking very good. Which is it?

3. From my understanding, Recon hasn't quite been able to close off a closed circulation? Is that correct?

4. The pro-mets seemed bullish on development yesterday? Are you still?

Can somebody please tell me if we are likely to have an upgrade any time soon, what you view the state of the system to be at the moment, etc?

They just found a closed circulation.

[jhamps10]

if not a special advisory, we will have a t.d at 5, since recon just found a closed circulation.

[Windtalker1]

Could someone please link the latest pictures of this disturbance?

[Lowpressure]

is the recon plane still in the storm?

Yes, it is. They had some time finding the westlerly wind needed to close the system off. It appears they were successful with that. Now they should head NE to sample the convection for higher windspeed.

[flhurricaneguy]

is the recon plane still in the storm?

Yeah... and they just found NW winds at 8 kt. I think it'll be a TD at 5.

ABOUT TIME.

[alan1961]

If this thing ever develops i'll eat my hat..to much wind shear coming off of South America..calm down guys

[White Cap]

If this thing ever develops i'll eat my hat..to much wind shear coming off of South America..calm down guys

Would you like hot sauce with that?

[Brent]

If this thing ever develops i'll eat my hat..to much wind shear coming off of South America..calm down guys

How do you like hats?

[ConvergenceZone]

If this thing ever develops i'll eat my hat..to much wind shear coming off of South America..calm down guys

start munching...

[Stratosphere747]

Looks as if the circulation has slowed a bit from earlier this morning, allowing the convection to begin to catch up.

Could be a mute point in the short-term, with the condtions just ahead of it.

[bayoubebe]

[quote="gatorcane

Don't get me wrong I do like Breck, he has such passion for tropical weather, he just missed this one (Katrina) bad early on...

Yes, he did.

And this is not the first one he missed either........badly.

A couple of years ago, I stayed up with him in the wee hours of the night with a hurricane(forgive me,my mind is at a blank with its name). Anyways, he said it was going to hit us in 2 hours. I was extremely worried, as we did not evacuate (that time).

He was wrong! It went west of us, thank God.

Yeah, I know that can happen. But, I find him wrong with the hurricanes way too often.

Nothing personal, I find him quite entertaining in fact.

[Derek Ortt]

I've put out a TDS on nwhhc

basically, saying we need to wait for mroe recon data before calling this a TD

we have a surface circ, but it may not be defined enough for a vortex, which I like to see before calling something a TC

[SWFLA_CANE]

Looks as if the circulation has slowed a bit from earlier this morning, allowing the convection to begin to catch up.

Could be a mute point in the short-term, with the condtions just ahead of it.

What are the conditions ahead of it?

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks as if the circulation has slowed a bit from earlier this morning, allowing the convection to begin to catch up.

Could be a mute point in the short-term, with the condtions just ahead of it.

Or perhaps the ULH is starting to develop.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

That shear kind of looks like upper level venting more than just shear.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

damar,

weather changes very quickly in the tropics. regarding yoru quetions:

1) that was their 'preference' based on when the report was written, the system looked pretty ragged earlier today and they probably figured it would stay a wave for now. Models often swing to build something or lose something since they are run based on older data input into them. last night, the storm looked better, so this mornings models were more bullish. soem are always more bullish than others.

2) the wave looked good last night, then got a bit ragged, and now very recently is starting to look better again. systems do this when they are early in development. they pulse with activity then slow up a bit then reburst. even big systems "breathe" liek that.

3) until literally the last few observations, they weren't able to close it off, but it looks like they finally just did.

4) I'm not a pro...but I'm sure they will answer you themselves!

And lastly, we will probably have an upgrade at the 5pm outlook/discussion. It may even be as a tropical storm if the winds can support that. In the discussion thye will tell you whether it is "barely closed off" or a weel defined circulation with winds of "x".

[Damar91]

damar,

weather changes very quickly in the tropics. regarding yoru quetions:

1) that was their 'preference' based on when the report was written, the system looked pretty ragged earlier today and they probably figured it would stay a wave for now. Models often swing to build something or lose something since they are run based on older data input into them. last night, the storm looked better, so this mornings models were more bullish. soem are always more bullish than others.

2) the wave looked good last night, then got a bit ragged, and now very recently is starting to look better again. systems do this when they are early in development. they pulse with activity then slow up a bit then reburst. even big systems "breathe" liek that.

3) until literally the last few observations, they weren't able to close it off, but it looks like they finally just did.

4) I'm not a pro...but I'm sure they will answer you themselves!

And lastly, we will probably have an upgrade at the 5pm outlook/discussion. It may even be as a tropical storm if the winds can support that. In the discussion thye will tell you whether it is "barely closed off" or a weel defined circulation with winds of "x".

Thanks, but those weren't my questions. I was responding to someone else.

[beachbum_al]

If this thing ever develops I'll eat my hat..to much wind shear coming off of South America..calm down guys

I have something even hotter than hot sauce for that hat. Would like wasabi sauce with your hat?

[wxman57]

Looks, to me, like it's about to blow up. Convection increasing rapidly, LLC becoming better-defined. I think it'll be TD 5 by 4pm CDT.