Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

chris_fit · #421 Postby **chris_fit** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:22 pm

Don't know if I'm right in saying this or not, but we have to watch the intensity as well... The more intense it gets the more it will be vulnerable to any weaknesses in the ridging and have a tendency to track more north.

Website · #422 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:22 pm

fact789 wrote:will there be a 2am?

No since there will be no watches and warnings(at least I'm pretty sure there won't be).

crab_storm · #423 Postby **crab_storm** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:23 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:It looks to me that the LLC is already slightly north of the NHC forecasted track.

can you see a LLC at night?

#424 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:23 pm

crab_storm wrote:he'll be named at 10pm. looks like he has everything he needs. Even the NHC forcast shows it being a storm by 2am.

Betcha he won't... :wink:

Tampa_God · #425 Postby **Tampa_God** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:23 pm

I was going to ask if I should worry any, but isn't that I stupid question. The whole Gulf coast must watch this storm, because it is too early to know where it is headed and many things can change.

#426 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:24 pm

Brent wrote:
fact789 wrote:will there be a 2am?

No since there will be no watches and warnings(at least I'm pretty sure there won't be).

i would put a TS watch for the islands (lesser antlies) and also maybe for jamacia.

ROCK · #427 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:24 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:It looks to me that the LLC is already slightly north of the NHC forecasted track.

maybe so but really hard to tell at night......might be a tad north or right on...

crab_storm · #428 Postby **crab_storm** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:25 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
crab_storm wrote:he'll be named at 10pm. looks like he has everything he needs. Even the NHC forcast shows it being a storm by 2am.

Betcha he won't...

ok. betcha a barq's

#429 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:25 pm

fact789 wrote:
Brent wrote:
fact789 wrote:will there be a 2am?

No since there will be no watches and warnings(at least I'm pretty sure there won't be).

i would put a TS watch for the islands (lesser antlies) and also maybe for jamacia.

The track has him 3 days from Jamaica...and there he is past the Islands...no need.

#430 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:27 pm

crab_storm wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
crab_storm wrote:he'll be named at 10pm. looks like he has everything he needs. Even the NHC forcast shows it being a storm by 2am.

Betcha he won't...

ok. betcha a barq's

I can't take your money...I already know the answer...he won't. :wink:

caneman · #431 Postby **caneman** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:27 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
crab_storm wrote:he'll be named at 10pm. looks like he has everything he needs. Even the NHC forcast shows it being a storm by 2am.

Betcha he won't...

Someone has some inside scoop :wink:

No fair

the_winds_that_sheared_me · #432 Postby **the_winds_that_sheared_me** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:27 pm

Tampa_God wrote:I was going to ask if I should worry any, but isn't that I stupid question. The whole Gulf coast must watch this storm, because it is too early to know where it is headed and many things can change.

All the pros on the board seem to be saying Fla wont get this storm but ya never know-they can be sneaky These storms so I would keep an eye on it.

rnbaida · #433 Postby **rnbaida** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:33 pm

how long till the new advisory???

rockyman · #434 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:34 pm

One thing that concerns me (as a central Gomer)...check out this model map and notice how the system is consistently north of each model run (first NOGAPS, then GFS, then GFDL)

bostonseminole · #435 Postby **bostonseminole** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:36 pm

when is the next recon?

Tampa_God · #436 Postby **Tampa_God** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:36 pm

IDK, it seems that the tracks are moving north and north more. As we seen from Charley, you can't really predict what will happen. Is the ULL near Eastern Cuba going to move soon?

boca · #437 Postby **boca** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:37 pm

I sure hope that north trend doesn't continue.Maybe the models are seeing some kind of shortwave coming thru but from what I've been reading the high is supposed to be strongly entrenched across the SE US.

Website · #438 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:38 pm

bostonseminole wrote:when is the next recon?

Tomorrow at Noon ET departure.

Advisory within 20 minutes.

hicksta · #439 Postby **hicksta** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:38 pm

Yall in flordia, aint got nothing to worry about

boca wrote:I sure hope that north trend doesn't continue.Maybe the models are seeing some kind of shortwave coming thru but from what I've been reading the high is supposed to be strongly entrenched across the SE US.

cajungal · #440 Postby **cajungal** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:39 pm

Yeah, you know what is crazy??? I was driving to work today (I work in Houma) and people were already boarding up their windows! The storm is not even in the gulf yet! People are freaking out this early. But, I am a little nervous about this system. I live in Terrebonne Parish and it flooded really bad from Rita which hit 200 miles away.

Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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