TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

[ConvergenceZone]

In support of What Sanibel says, I do know there have been several storms where we ended up saying "This storm has a mind of it's own", because it basically went totally against what it suppose to have done based upon the conditions around it. Thus sometimes storms do appear to act like humans.. I think a couple of storms that come to mind were Gulf storms, but I can't remember the exact names.

[Derek Ortt]

he NRL and SHIPS headers

those are official products and changes are seldom made between synoptic and advisory time

[Innotech]

Chris had am uch more hostile environment to deal with. TD5 here isnt squeezed between two TUTT lows, has lighter shear, and much more importantly, has no SAL and not nearly so mnuch dry air to contend with. Chris fought for tiny amounts of moisture in a very very dry and stable environment. TD5 is struggling through a very moist, much more relaxed shear, and more unstable environment. Its also in very warm shallow waters where upwelling does little to cool the waters.

[Wx_Warrior]

Im in the media I can answer why CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc do this;......

RATINGS...Of course they want you to stay "tuned" with them. You think for once they are going to say shear is eating it up and may not survive? News director would fire them on the spot.

They want to keep you there pllus the Katrina talk is running wild!

[Noles2006]

Convergence - The advisory is not out and their METS suck, basically.

skysummit - Hey now, this Floridian seen a westward movement! Don't be so quick to generalize!

Sorry Nole! Let me rephrase myself......Florida Peninsulans (is that a word? )

Did you just call the 'Noles "sorry"? Just kidding.

If "Peninsulans" wasn't a word, it is now.

... and I know you're used to seeing this "Florida v. Texas" battle. I find them entertaining.
F: "It's coming here"
T: "No, all of the models say it's coming here!"
F: "OMG, look it just jumped NW"
T: "No, it's an optical illusion!"
F: "Whatever. Wishcaster!"

Holy crap... I edited this one instead of posting a new one... Where have I been? Whenever someone tries to type "W*shcaster", it shows up as "wonderful forecaster"! That's hilarious!

[dwg71]

Ok,yeah.. Really.....why was the thread title updated? I see no official confirmation that this is a tropical storm at this time

The NHC has not issued an upgrade that I am aware of . But they did find 48KT flight level winds, which would be TS strength. That was a while ago. I think they will give it a name at 5PM, I really hope they dont. Let's see what it does for a while. I cant handle medial hype...

[seaswing]

Convergence - The advisory is not out and their METS suck, basically.

skysummit - Hey now, this Floridian seen a westward movement! Don't be so quick to generalize!

Sorry Nole! Let me rephrase myself......Florida Peninsulans (is that a word? )

Florida Crackers

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG...I just like to pick on you. What did JB say today? Anything yet?

not since earlier this morning. Not much new from him. Seems like his ideas are the same. West Gulf threat IF it can survive the Caribb. Guantlet.

[stormernie]

The LLC is now avaliable on the High Resloution site - and the last few pictures shows thunderstorms building over it again. This is interesting, similiar happenings yesterday.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[storms in NC]

WOW I didn't see that till you said somthing

[Tampa_God]

I see this storm moving West right now. Maybe the burst of convention to the NW of the center is fooling some people of a NW movement. It should be making a WNW or NW movement by Early Morning. Only thing I am afraid us is this slowing down. It feels like this storm will slow down for the ULL over Cuba moves to the NW and then it will keep on going.

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess we will find out in a few days. But IMO not Texas. I said before the Yucatan. if not there then Mexico

I was thinking Mexico too, but realize that it's IMPOSSIBLE to be able to tell what type of weakness will be in the ridge or how far east the ridge will be...So our guess of Mexico is just a guess, nothing more. I think if it is Mexico though that it will be the extreme north part of Mexico...No reason to think that it will go any further south.

[Trugunzn]

Anybody what is a Fujiwhara? Heard alot of Mets saying this on another Board.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A Fjiwhara is when two hurricanes,two tropical cyclones move around each other. Or a stronger hurricane send a weaker cyclone around it. Like a few weeks ago in the western Pacific.

[miamicanes177]

Indeed, as referenced above, NRL says TD5 has strengthened further into a TS.

[jasons2k]

Anybody what is a Fujiwhara? Heard alot of Mets saying this on another Board.

Google is your friend.

[jenmrk]

Word Of the Day

Today's Word:
Fujiwhara (noun)



Pronunciation: [fu-jee-'wahr-ê]

Definition: The Fujiwhara Effect is an interaction of tropical cyclones within about 700 nautical miles of each other, where the storms "link arms" and rotate around a common midpoint. Further, the entire storm system—the two storms and the central point between them—move off in a single direction while the storms continue to spin with each other.

Usage: The "Fujiwhara Effect" can be called the "Fujiwhara Dance," as well. "Fujiwhara" is always capitalized because the word comes from a proper name and has not yet been commonized.

Suggested Usage: You can see how the hurricanes Ione and Kristen danced together in 1974 at http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/wea00481.htm. Their path made a perhaps the largest serpentine line on earth: a terrible beauty—which brings us to possible metaphorical uses of today's word. "Jennifer and Creswell's relationship was a Fujiwhara that damaged those around them more than themselves." The term brings to mind the actual dancing patterns of some of my friends.

Etymology: The eponym of today's word is Dr. Sakuhei Fujiwhara, the Chief of the Central Meteorological Bureau in Tokyo, Japan shortly after the First World War. Dr. Fujiwhara's descriptions of "vortices," or whirlpools in water, led meteorologists to apply his observations to tropical cyclones—typhoons and hurricanes—in the atmosphere. Dust devils, by the way, can exhibit the same behavior on land. You are always safe in yourDictionary's brand-new gift store where you can now buy YDC paraphernalia that tells the world you love words.

–Dr. Language, YourDictionary.com

[CajunMama]

If it hasn't been classified by the professionals yet, don't title your threads like that. False advertising.

BTW...i'm editing the title back to TD # until official word.

[Derek Ortt]

and how can a surface cyclone fujiwarah around an upper level cyclone

[jasons2k]

From the afternoon's AFD in Houston/Galveston:

FCST DURING THE 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF WHATEVER BECOMES OF CURRENT TD #5. THIS WILL
HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH & POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES...WHICH MODELS CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON AT THIS POINT.