Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[cinlfla]

What are you guys using to track the center? I have tried visible and infrared and water vapor imagery and I can not find the center of this storm to save my life can some help me out here?



Thanks

[Bailey1777]

What size would you describe this system as? Area wise.

[WindRunner]

Poof?

Max Mayfield just said in an interview that he thinks the shear won't be too bad and the storm should be just fine. I'm gonnna go with him on this.

You have to be careful with what he says in interviews. Remenber that he is a very public-oriented guy, especially on camera. If he had said "there's a decent chance it could die," then far fewer people would pay attention to it until it reaches the Gulf. If he says he expects it to survive, than people will be more aware of the possible danger to them in the future.

[sunny]

Funny you say that, this is reminding me a little of Lili, at least with respect to possible track...actually the GFDL track looks almost dead on what Lili's was. we can only hope that if that comes to fruition, it will go down like Lili before landfall.

Lili went down like she did because Izzy was in the Gulf the week before and churned up the cooler water.

[jhamps10]

cinlfla,

[destro34]

rhen .what iam watching? is an eye... uhm..shear at 15.7 knot...i have my doubt..remember me, jeane, plus many people were saying that this one will not make it.. then at 5:00 a ts...uhmm grrrr... i will keep watching. but i see an eye. ispent couple of years analising sat pic for the air force and today wont be a difference. ji,ji,ji,ji

[marcane_1973]

I think we all might get suprised where the actual center is at. On the water vapor it looks clearly to me where the center is. Right in the center of the storm. I guess we will find out once recon gets their data. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv.jpg

[gatorcane]

looks like more 290-300 tracking now...finding the weakness just to the north......

[johngaltfla]

The Models will not be Good Until this gets organized.

Bingo. We have a winner. Now would everyone hang tight, take two steps back from the panic button and wait and see. This is not like Katrina where we all knew what would happen when the circulation survived the Florida peninsula and hit the 85 plus degree Gulf of Mexico.

Let's wait and see what the model consensus is in 36 hours.

Then panic.

[Noles2006]

Sorry, destro... I don't know what to tell you... it's not an eye...

[PTPatrick]

There are so many storms that come to mind that have passed through the same general area in the past few years each quite individual, but all had to dance around Jamaica...Isidore, Lilly, Charley, Ivan, Dennis, Emily...its like southeasterm Carribean Roll Call...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So the Dominican Republic has a airforce?

[NESDIS Met]

Interesting that you guys are bringing up the topic of cloud top temps...in the last 24 hours we've seen some of the coldest cloud tops that the new GOES geothermal sensors have ever recorded. The software I'm referring to has been in operation for about 8 years...it's what provides the Dvorak image. Take a look at it on the NHC site, it is much more accurate than the traditional false-color infrared. For what it's worth, Katrina's coldest cycle was over the loop current and about 5 degrees C warmer than what we just saw two hours ago with Ernesto. Since then the tops have warmed a bit.

[Noles2006]

looks like more 290-300 tracking now...finding the weakness just to the north......

I'll give you major props if you're right, you've been consistent with this idea. ... that said, I don't think it'll come to fruition.

[Frank P]

it's too far out to even speculate where it will hit...i'm not worried...paying attention, yes...panicing, no...it's funny to see how every little model run gets everyone all in a tizzy.

It is, but it isn't. I can understand the reasoning behind it after the last two hellish hurricane years we had. Then again, if we become too premature with doomsday predictions, we can have an out and out panic. Everyone needs to settle down but stay on top of this.

this is true but one big difference from years past is that we have over 100,000 people living in FEMA trailers along the coast, many more people displaced from their homes and hundred of thousands of people who's psyche has been truly devasted by Katrina and Rita... come Monday, this thing is forecast to hit along the Central GOM as a major and it will be panic of epic proportions along the coast.... and probably rightfully so

[Regit]

FWIW, I adjusted the color and contrast of my monitor. That dot in the center of the convection appears to be lighter, not darker, in color.

Not saying it's an eye, just pointing that out.

[Air Force Met]

rhen .what iam watching? is an eye... uhm..shear at 15.7 knot...i have my doubt..remember me, jeane, plus many people were saying that this one will not make it.. then at 5:00 a ts...uhmm grrrr... i will keep watching. but i see an eye. ispent couple of years analising sat pic for the air force and today wont be a difference. ji,ji,ji,ji

Hopefully not the USAF...because if it was...we didn't teach you very well. Look at the enhancement curve.

Eye's are WARMER...not colder. That is a -80C temp reading....not to mention the fact it is displaced from where the center is...you can check that with the channel 2 IR.

[AJC3]

Is the center located near that convection? Last visible shot I saw showed the convection moving over the center. I'd say if convection persist over the center then Ernesto will survive the shear thats ahead.

MI to the rescue!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc06/A ... W.55pc.jpg

You can clearly see the displacement of the LLC to the NW of the deep convection.

[Trugunzn]

I have a feeling the center just relocated it self near that deep convection. Looks like the on NW convection isnt there any more. Any one help out?

[Cyclenall]

Isn't this storm now at 40 knots? With a pressure of 1003 mb? That's on the NRL.