TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[jhamps10]

probeley reformation to the south.

[miamicanes177]

these are very disturbing findings from recon thus far. It has not even entered a favorable enviornment and it is strengthening. What will it do when it hits the boiling GOM?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Cat 4 or 5 will be possible in the GOM

[mike815]

huh at 11 it was 14.5 north its moving wnw

[CYCLONE MIKE]

KFDM, do you see this potential front coming all the way down and sweeping Ernesto off his feet to the NE through Florida.? As strong as this high has been for the last few weeks and fronts not even making it through ARK I just don't see it happening next week. What are your thoughts?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Doubtful but not impossible. I would say no right now..

[Air Force Met]

Cat 4 or 5 will be possible in the GOM

Is this after it dissipates...or before...

just joking...

[Bailey1777]

Still with every fix no matter what happens all day you are dealing with a storm that continues to the West. As it does that so will the models. What do you think KFDM?

[AL Chili Pepper]

Canadian trended a little west toward New Orleans on the 00Z run...and lots stronger.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Wx_Warrior]

for a model to put a cat 4 @ galv earlier 2nite and that same model shift 2 states east...you never know...

[HouTXmetro]

huh at 11 it was 14.5 north its moving wnw

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0304.shtml

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

Did I get the UTC time wrong? That says 14.8N

[KFDM Meteorologist]

True, but tonight the models are trending a little east.

[miamicanes177]

he slowed down too from 16mph to 14mph...increasing the chances of missing the high shear.

[LaBreeze]

I mentioned the opinion of the front earlier which was mentioned by two local mets. They both seemed to be fairly confident that the front would make it down here and be the saving grace for my area (SW LA).

[Stormcenter]

Absolutely right, and the models (the more reliable ones) are now converging on the North Central Gulf Coast, specifically at this point the area between New Orleans and Panama City. This is not looking good for the Katrina/Ivan/Dennis/Jeanne(2ndary landfall)/Alberto ravaged area of the country...god, the NC Gulf has had just about the worst luck wouldn't you say?...

k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl

Come on folks it's only "early" Saturday and we have this thing already as a Cat. 4-5 and making landfall somewhere along the central GOM.
Let's take a deep breath and step back. All we have now is the "potential" for a bad situation in the GOM but nothing concrete yet.

[Bailey1777]

I'm talking about the next run.

[Stormcenter]

Cat 4 or 5 will be possible in the GOM

Is this after it dissipates...or before...

just joking...

Below the belt.

[Wx_Warrior]

push ernesto madril the beast to the EAST

[crazycajuncane]

I wonder how hard it will be for me to stay away from these forums over the next week! Labor Day weekend is not looking good for some folks!

[Droop12]

Kinda off the topic, but does anyone else find Ernesto very hard to type. I know of all the times I've typed it tonight, I never get it right the first time, its tricky I guess.