T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

56 kts at the surface via dropsonde

Like I said on another thread, that surprised me a bit.

[ROCK]

56 kts at the surface via dropsonde

T-numbers at 3.5 that sounds about right.....

[storms in NC]

There is about 305 people on here and I and starting to have trouble once in awhile with page loading.

[x-y-no]

Woah...guys, can you all fill me in, when did all of the models started to trend to the east? What's going on?

When the GFS went insane. Now the other models are following suit and people are buying into the nonsense - page after page.

People and people ...

I see a few people buying into it and I see a whole lot of people explaining over and over again why it's not a plausible scenario.


(I could offer a plausible scenario for the Florida peninsula being affected - but it's not the GFS one exactly and besides I don't give it much chance of happening, so I think I'll leave well enough alone )

[Damar91]

What are the T-numbers usually at for a minimal hurricane?

[gatorcane]

I keep hearing people talk about all this ridging all summer. I think it is just the opposite. Just 1 month ago, the NWS Mia office was talking about how unbelievable it was to have a front push through South Florida?

This summer has seen trough after trough push of the EC. It doesn't take a"winter like front" to turn this thing Northward or even NNE....just some shortwave like we have been seeing all summer.

[JTD]

CNN's met Jacqui Jeras (she's great by the way) just said Ernesto is getting better organized. I agree.

Let's not forget a t.s. is not supposed to look like the 175 mph Katrina.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Does anyone else notice these models all have Ernesto moving NW when he really isn't right now?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Just look at XTRAP, its because of center relocation, but its following these models in the short term. maybe better luck later for you EWG, I'm rooting for you.

I know, that relocation threw everything off. The funny thing is the initial relocation northward was wrong anyway and they changed it back eastward. May be the 0Z runs will be more in check?

[Coredesat]

What are the T-numbers usually at for a minimal hurricane?

4.0 or 4.5.

[mtm4319]

What are the T-numbers usually at for a minimal hurricane?

4.0

[ROCK]

What are the T-numbers usually at for a minimal hurricane?

4.0....


yep, NC page loading is tough attm...

[Damar91]

Thanks, guys!

[brunota2003]

I wouldn't worry, though, certain posters say that there is no way this is hitting the Florida peninsula.

There is NO way this is hitting the FL peninsula.

Never say never...especially when it comes to the Tropics...we all have been proven that we still have alot to learn about the tropics, and that any area near the 5 day cone needs to watch the area...take a look:

You see how close the edge of the cone is? Granted this is 4-5 days out though...but weather is unpredictible and can change at any second. That is why you don't get too concerned/go crazy, however you want to keep a watchful eye on it until the threat is over. Expect the unexpected...just my $0.02

[hsvwx]

While the NAM does not have a good tropical record, it can be relied on for upper air patterns in which we can see the steering currents. If the 12Z NAM is right, that ridge just off the SE coast will steer Ernesto just west of Cuba into the Gulf. Remember, pattern recognition is needed. It's still summertime. Ridges don't break down with weak shortwaves very easily.

[Stratosphere747]

Some of yall truly need to take a pause and wait for the next disco....

Without question the GFS issue will be addressed, and I would not look for any major changes to the forecast track..

The models will continue to be all over the place until the NOAA flights info is ingested.

[Portastorm]

Some of yall truly need to take a pause and wait for the next disco....

Without question the GFS issue will be addressed, and I would not look for any major changes to the forecast track..

The models will continue to be all over the place until the NOAA flights info is ingested.

Good point Strat ... what's the word on when they'll be flying one of those high-altitude jets into the atmosphere, anyone heard?

[JTD]

When will we have a G-IV flight? Is one scheduled?

[N2FSU]

Excerpt from the Tallahassee NWS regarding approaching front next week:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY).
MID AND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SLOWLY EDGES EAST
IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR
CWA CREATING GOOD CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BY WEDNESDAY FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH ERNESTO.
LATEST NHC FORECAST BRINGS ERNESTO INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS BEEN WAFFLING AROUND THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THE GFS IS NOW PREDICTING THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CAUSE THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WOULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION FOR
ERNESTO...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS AS WELL. ONLY TIME WILL
TELL THOUGH ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH ERNESTO...GIVEN THAT THE MODELS
ARE FLIP FLOPPING A BIT.

[wjs3]

Thanks, guys!

For a little more info on t numbers and associated pressures/wind speeds:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/dvorak.txt

[clfenwi]

When will we have a G-IV flight? Is one scheduled?

Sunday afternoon/evening with the data going into the 00Z models Sunday night.