TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[jwayne]

GFDN is IDENTIAL to the GFDL, just with NOGAPS initial and boundary conditions instead of GFS conditions. I perfer this version of the GFDL than the GFS based one as GFS is having major problems

derek, very interesting forecast. You say your not going as far west as you are inclined with your track. How far west are we talking about?

[canegrl04]

In this case,bigger is not better.It means a wider swath of the Gulf coast will feel Ernesto's wrath

[mtm4319]

Again, this is thread #11. I'm changing it again

[Trugunzn]

thats is not good!

[cycloneye]

Again, this is thread #11. I'm changing it again

oops,it's hard to keep count with all the activity here.

[ConvergenceZone]

Is it my imagination, or is it getting bigger...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

I'm more thinking about land interaction with Hispanola. It seems to be less organised.

I agree that due to the land interaction, strengthening will be slower than normal. I don't think it will really take off until it gets into the GULF, but I think it will strengthen very very slowly, but the land will disrupt the outflow to keep it from intensifying rapidly...

[Stormcenter]

The CONU has shifted to near NOLA.

Link please.

[Scorpion]

Is it my imagination, or is it getting bigger...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

I'm more thinking about land interaction with Hispanola. It seems to be less organised.

I agree that due to the land interaction, strengthening will be slower than normal. I don't think it will really take off until it gets into the GULF, but I think it will strengthen very very slowly, but the land will disrupt the outflow to keep it from intensifying rapidly...

Land interaction is not affecting the storm. The core is safe over the water, and thats what counts. Dennis was just fine.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The CONU has shifted to near NOLA.

Link please.

It's on this image:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

[Stormcenter]

The CONU has shifted to near NOLA.

Link please.

It's on this image:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

The ONLY reason that is the case is due the model having Ernesto heading toward TX.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt2.html
Convection is over the center now according to the Dvorak estimate.



----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 AUG 2006 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 16:13:03 N Lon : 72:13:34 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.4 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -62.7C Cloud Region Temp : -61.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[superfly]

The ConU solution does not bode well. I just went back to visit NOLA a couple weeks ago and the city is nowhere near ready for another hurricane.

[canegrl04]

The 8pm graph still showing a projection to NOLA. The path to NOLA happens to be where the warmest water is

[Extremeweatherguy]

The CONU has shifted to near NOLA.

Link please.

It's on this image:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

The ONLY reason that is the case is due the model having Ernesto heading toward TX.

However, that model is a very good one according to Derek.

[ConvergenceZone]

Is it my imagination, or is it getting bigger...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

I'm more thinking about land interaction with Hispanola. It seems to be less organised.

I agree that due to the land interaction, strengthening will be slower than normal. I don't think it will really take off until it gets into the GULF, but I think it will strengthen very very slowly, but the land will disrupt the outflow to keep it from intensifying rapidly...

Land interaction is not affecting the storm. The core is safe over the water, and thats what counts. Dennis was just fine.

well if it stays far enough away from the land you re right Scorpion. But if it gets closer it will effect it... Here's what the latest discussion said on the matter:

"One potential problem
with the intensity forecast is interaction with land...as Ernesto
might not strengthen as much as forecast if it gets too close to
Hispaniola or Cuba.

[Stormcenter]

The CONU has shifted to near NOLA.

Link please.

It's on this image:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

The ONLY reason that is the case is due the model having Ernesto heading toward TX.

However, that model is a very good one according to Derek.

Texas though?

[skysummit]

That 8pm track on Wunderground is not correct. That's the old track from today. I just checked the raw data and it's the same as the 5pm track. Plus, they don't change forecast tracks on Intermediate Advisories.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The CONU has shifted to near NOLA.

Link please.

It's on this image:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

The ONLY reason that is the case is due the model having Ernesto heading toward TX.

However, that model is a very good one according to Derek.

Texas though?

Go check out Derek's latest forecast in the Tropical Analysis section. He has it going toward the TX/LA border ATM.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

thats is not good!
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... 5_5day.gif

I don't like that at all!!!

[El Nino]

995mb ... 53 kts.