TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[Emmett_Brown]

ok... here goes... I dont think we have a well defined LLC at this time... i think there is an LLC, but it is weak, and it could reform. In the short term, i am focusing on the overall movement of the entire cloudmass, which clearly appears to be moving W/NW. Winds at 500 amd 300 mb are increasing from the E/SE, and this is driving the convestion W/NW. Just like before, when Ernie was kicked N in contstant center reformations, i believe we are now seeing Easterly shear in the short term that could force center reformations in a more W direction.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_12.gif

That is also why he is slow to strengthen... shear. I think there is a good chance he "reforms" in Westerly hops, and ends up meandering around Key West tonight.

That's my take.

[Droop12]

I guess thats true, but Im just basing what I said on personal obs.

[miamicanes177]

It does not look as piss poor this afternoon, but it is still looking very good for florida. It will not have enough time to strengthen past a minimal cat 1 hurricane, and even that is very doubtful.

[Sanibel]

WNW'ers. Just wait, the center will become more clear when it gets closer. Trust me, I have a REAL STAKE in it skirting the west coast after intensifying over the Straits.

The problem here is the radar beam shoots straight out while the horizon curves away. At that distance you think you are seeing the surface center, but you are not. You are seeing the higher clouds that are obscuring the real center behind them at that distance.

I already made some basic mistakes myself while the storm was on the tip of Haiti. It was further south than what I was seeing.

[StJoe]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Ernesto strikes...Getting flared up...Look at at the hot spots...

Put it this way...We, on the east coast, are going to get soaked and some good wind with some nasty gusts. WNW, NW...doesn't matter much...I think us in western Palm Beach County (Wellington) are going to experience Ernie in a way that that we are not quite expecting...Not Wilma, but def. not what I'm hearing people say...

[Aquawind]

New convection firing on the backside..tis organizing alrighty.. pressure drops this afternoon..


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Vandora]

Richard Knabb just confirmed a NW movement

Where/when did he confirm that? Thanks!

Not sure if this is where they saw this, but he's been on our local station (channel 10) a lot this morning, and he's said it the last two times he's been in.

[Myersgirl]

getting interesting lots of flore up betreen frame 14 and 15
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... loope.html

[gtalum]

The whole mass of the storm seems to be moving parallel to the NHC track. I think they may finally have nailed it down pretty well.

[theworld]

The LLC /eye just off the Cuba coast is clearly visible on the last frame of this loop if ya pause it . Anyone else see that ?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... tte=ir.pal

[Droop12]

I cant even make out a well defined center on radar yet. All I see is a big gap where there isnt any convection?

[wxman57]

I'm looking at a GARP radar loop. My cursor position gives me a lat/lon readout. I place the center near 23.7N/79.9W. That's a tad east of the NHC track, but within the range of possible error in the location of the center.

[shawn67]

WNW'ers. Just wait, the center will become more clear when it gets closer. Trust me, I have a REAL STAKE in it skirting the west coast after intensifying over the Straits.

The problem here is the radar beam shoots straight out while the horizon curves away. At that distance you think you are seeing the surface center, but your are not. You are seeing the higher clouds that are obscuring the real center behind them at that distance.

I already made some basic mistakes myself while the storm was on the tip of Haiti. It was further south than what I was seeing.

I don't want to be categorized as a person wanting it to go "WNW". Sanibel I have a REAL STAKE in this stay away from your area as well. My folks live at Burnt Store Marina on the Lee County Line. I just posting what I am observing. And I do understand the issues of earth curveture and radar signal overtopping the center of circulation.

[fox13weather]

Although I really have a lot of faith in the NHC, personally, I am still going to watch BayNews9 locally in Tampa Bay since they are leaving a few options open at least so that viewers are less likely to be caught off guard if the track does shift more. Obviously they have to tow the NHC line a bit, but I have noticed that most of their forecasters tend to also add the other tidbits, like explaining why some of the outlier models may be seeing what they are seeing. That helps teach the interactions too for all the viewers.

Although I catch the other stations too to get their opinions, I find that many of them use a lot of absolutes and seem to casually dismiss other options entirely. That will make thier viewers be caught by suprise if they believe their Mets all the time. (i.e. Fox 13's met spoke with certainty on Thurs and Fri night that it would hit Texas or Louisiana and that we had nothing at all to worry about here in Florida! -I hope people didn't spend money or make big plans based on that! CNN is also notorious for giving no details at all and very absolute ideas; maybe due to their time restraints.)

There was not a met in the business that did not expect a track into the western or central Gulf Of Mexico last Thursday. Looking back on the upper air forecast models last week current this track was an unlikely if not impossible scenario. We all understand that this is an inexact science but we are all paid to make the BEST forecast with the BEST tools available and even then there will be forecasts that will bust. It is more important to acknowledge that a forecast is going to be wrong, explain why it was wrong, and then move on to improve on the forecast. MOST viewers respect that.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

fox13weather,

Your consequences may be lost credibility. Another's consequences could be lost life or property. Again, I appreciate all the view's and opinions of my local forecasters. But, I personally think it is irresponsible for anyone who knows that their words are going to be taken verbatum to take any such stance without a caveat. That's the main point I wanted to make. Nobody's perfect and predicting the weather is certainly not a perfect science. (Heck, I don't think any of us nailed this storm early on!) I will always defer to those who know more than me about it. Some folks defer completely. For those who believe that the science is so modern and perfect now... the weatherguys have to be careful to remind those people that it is not perfect yet and acknowledge that there is at least the possibility that they may be wrong as new data comes in when dealing with poteentially life threatening situations. -just my opinion.

[gatorcane]

if this just had about 24 more hours over water...south florida would be in BIG trouble.

Agreed.. Given this open water in this enviroment we are talkin major intensification.. Hope no slow down occurs for any turn like so often is the case..

I do hope the turn is swift and it does not try to stall or barely move for a bit.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm looking at a GARP radar loop. My cursor position gives me a lat/lon readout. I place the center near 23.7N/79.9W. That's a tad east of the NHC track, but within the range of possible error in the location of the center.

Agreed..

[Sanibel]

Recon: 49KTS flight level

[gatorcane]

Recon: 49KTS flight level

Here we go with the intensification - I think

[deltadog03]

wxman i believe that to be pretty close as well...looks to be around 305 heading?