TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

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CrazyC83
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#421 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:23 pm

Epsilon_Fan wrote:he's running out of time to make the jump...


I think he's already there.
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#422 Postby carve » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:24 pm

Honestly...it already looks like a cane..not official buttttttttttt it looks good
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#423 Postby tgenius » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:25 pm

With the pressure jump, I can almost assure you it won't be a cane by landfall, possibly in post-storm analysis :)
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#424 Postby marcane_1973 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:28 pm

Mark Sudduth and Jesse Bass just recorded a 53mph wind gust at Carolina Beach.
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#425 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:29 pm

tgenius wrote:With the pressure jump, I can almost assure you it won't be a cane by landfall, possibly in post-storm analysis :)


I'm not sure if they got the eye in that vortex fix.

Looking at the dropsonde reading. It looks like they did get into the actual eye.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#426 Postby carve » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:29 pm

I just went to Cnn's hurricane web site...they have it at a cat 1 right now
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#427 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:30 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
tgenius wrote:With the pressure jump, I can almost assure you it won't be a cane by landfall, possibly in post-storm analysis :)


I'm not sure if they got the eye in that vortex fix.


I can't make out which clear spot is the center of circulation - the right one (that looks like a decent eye) or the left one (which is very ragged)?
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#428 Postby bjackrian » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:30 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
tgenius wrote:With the pressure jump, I can almost assure you it won't be a cane by landfall, possibly in post-storm analysis :)


I'm not sure if they got the eye in that vortex fix.

Their last VM was right on top of the NHC fix--perhaps they were told to investigate that location specifically? Or perhaps the NHC knows that they're doing adn I should keep my mouth shut.
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#429 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:30 pm

carve wrote:I just went to Cnn's hurricane web site...they have it at a cat 1 right now


We have to wait for an NHC update. But I can certainly believe such - I think it has reached Cat 1 myself.
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#430 Postby Stratusxpeye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:32 pm

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/08/31/e ... index.html

CNN Does not have it cat 1
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#431 Postby carve » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:33 pm

This is where they have it at a cat 1.....www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2006/hurricanes
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#432 Postby milfordmawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:34 pm

carve wrote:I just went to Cnn's hurricane web site...they have it at a cat 1 right now

Sure looks good on GRLevel3 loop http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/brloop2.htm
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#433 Postby Stratusxpeye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:35 pm

carve wrote:This is where they have it at a cat 1.....www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2006/hurricanes


bc it was at its hightened point. Thats the overall history of the tc according to the nhc.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/radar-local ... =1&large=1

Nice radar image of ernesto Good circulation. Getting close. Looks like its a little east of original though not by much though looks like the wilmington area call was right. East of there could see some decent exciting weather
Last edited by Stratusxpeye on Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#434 Postby Bane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:42 pm

does it look to anyne else like he has slowed down?
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#435 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:43 pm

Bane wrote:does it look to anyne else like he has slowed down?


shhh.
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#436 Postby artist » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:43 pm

what happened to all the pro mets?? :(
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#437 Postby Deathray » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:44 pm

Wilmington, NC Radar

With that eye, you can see it forming near the end of the loop, looks like it is shifting a bit eastward due to it... gotta wait for more info...
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#438 Postby Bane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:45 pm

someone beat me to it
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#439 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:47 pm

Its define east of the NHC track.
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#440 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:49 pm

somewhat slowing down..imo
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