SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

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drezee
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#421 Postby drezee » Wed May 09, 2007 12:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:LOOKS WORSE NOW THAT IT DID IN THE MORNING:

12:15 UTC (8:15 AM EDT)
http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/ ... TORM21.jpg

16:40 UTC (12:40 EDT)
http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/ ... ANDREA.jpg


You are correct. Convection has diminished considerably since this morning (and it wasn't too good then,either). Winds appear to be dropping. The NHC killed it by calling it Andrea. Looking at the latest buoy reports encircling the storm, I'm seeing more 20-30 kt winds now. Don't see any more 35kts or higher. IF there are any TS-force winds left, they're not covering a large area.


HA HA HA! The deed is done now! First one out of the way...this one counts...at least for NOAA...not for Dr. Gray!
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#422 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 09, 2007 12:21 pm

ONCE AGAIN:

THIS MORNING:
Image

NOW:
Image

I think she may be allergic to smoke!!! or dry air!!!
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#423 Postby Damar91 » Wed May 09, 2007 12:22 pm

Yeah, she's looking pretty sick right now......
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#424 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed May 09, 2007 12:23 pm

No Andrea!! Don't die on me!!!
Please please develop more rain
for Florida and Georgia

If we don't get your rain we
won't see rain until June!!!
We will have to wait another
month for rain and the fires
will rage on

Andrea is our last hope before June
for the fires
because the rainy season is still one month
away...

Come on Andrea please pick up good moisture
I am wish--casting Andrea to grow in rain!!!!!!!!!!
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#425 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 09, 2007 12:23 pm

HA HA HA! The deed is done now! First one out of the way...this one counts...at least for NOAA...not for Dr. Gray!


Why not for Dr Gray?
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#426 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 09, 2007 12:36 pm

Image

We have started even before the official start of the EPAC season. How about that!!!
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#427 Postby cpdaman » Wed May 09, 2007 12:37 pm

bouys indicate weakening (rising everywhere) and visible/water vapor confirm this also looks like a NW drift to me
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#428 Postby MortisFL » Wed May 09, 2007 12:38 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

We have started even before the official start of the EPAC season. How about that!!!


Nice graphic
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#429 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 09, 2007 12:45 pm

MortisFL wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:ATL-EPAC SCOREBOARD 2007

We have started even before the official start of the EPAC season. How about that!!!


Nice graphic


Thanks, I try!!!
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#430 Postby Thunder44 » Wed May 09, 2007 12:50 pm

It's seems to be have been fighting off some dry air on the west side since this morning. Cloud tops have warmed somewhat, but not that much east side, which is the strongest. It's certainly not strenghtening, but I don't see any rapid rises in the buoys either. I would give it through tonight for convection to pulse back up before declaring it dead.
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#431 Postby skysummit » Wed May 09, 2007 12:58 pm

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
200 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

...POORLY-ORGANIZED SUBTROPICAL STORM MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 135
MILES ...220 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY...BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3
MPH. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE U.S. COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ANDREA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ANY LAND AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...30.9 N...80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Evil Jeremy
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#432 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed May 09, 2007 12:59 pm

aw, man! i was just about to post that! oh well lol.
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#433 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed May 09, 2007 1:01 pm

Why is andrea going to stall near the coast and then move SE? is there a High out there that I am not seeing/
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#434 Postby drezee » Wed May 09, 2007 1:10 pm

cycloneye wrote:
HA HA HA! The deed is done now! First one out of the way...this one counts...at least for NOAA...not for Dr. Gray!


Why not for Dr Gray?


Colorado State's numbers only includes purely tropical systems. For example, they did not include STS Nicole from 2004.


They only counted 15 and the NHC had 16.


http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Fore ... 4/dec2004/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004atlan.shtml
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#435 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 09, 2007 1:14 pm

Image

Andrea is not alone in May in this part of the Atlantic.
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#436 Postby drezee » Wed May 09, 2007 1:17 pm

nice rain for C FL
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084m.gif
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#437 Postby Jevo » Wed May 09, 2007 1:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Right now I am sensing an around-and-out track...slowly inching towards NE Florida, possibly making landfall, then the oncoming front turns it back into the Atlantic, racing it out to sea...


Ah the jedi meteorological sense.....

The Force is strong in this one
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#438 Postby punkyg » Wed May 09, 2007 1:23 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... =yes&ATCF_
BASIN=al&BASIN=ATL&NAV=tc&ATCF_YR=2007&ATCF_FILE=/data/www/atcf_web/public_html/i
mage_archives/2007/al012007.07050912.gif&CURRENT=20070509.1815.goes12.x.vis1km_high.01LANDREA.
40kts-1003mb-309N-800W.100pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&CURRENT_ATCF=al012007.07050912.
gif&ATCF_NAME=al012007&ATCF_DIR=/data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2007&YEAR=2007&YR=07&ACTION=
Latest_Photos&ARCHIVE=active&MO=MAY&STORM_NAME=01L.ANDREA&STYLE=tables&AREA=indian/winds&DISPLAY=
Latest&PRODUCT=vis&DIR=/TC/tc07/ATL/01L.ANDREA/vis/geo/1km_zoom&TYPE=vis&PROD=geo&SUB_PRODUCT
=geo&SUB_SUB_PRODUCT=1km_zoom&SIZE=full
In the picture do you think the convection is starting to cover the storm's center :?:
Last edited by punkyg on Wed May 09, 2007 1:42 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#439 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 09, 2007 1:26 pm

Image

Rainband over the SE coast.
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#440 Postby chris_fit » Wed May 09, 2007 1:28 pm

In the picture do you think the convection is starting to over the storm's center :?:


Ughh please fix your LINK
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