INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[Aric Dunn]

RECON is on the runway !!!!

385
SXXX50 KNHC 011603
AF307 01BBA INVEST HDOB 01 KNHC
1554 3024N 08855W 00000 0008 360 000 320 198 000 00000 0000000000
1554. 3024N 08855W 00000 0008 360 000 320 196 000 00000 0000000000
1555 3024N 08855W 00000 0008 360 000 320 196 000 00000 0000000000
1555. 3024N 08855W 00000 0008 360 000 316 194 000 00001 0000000000
1556 3024N 08855W 00000 0008 360 000 314 190 000 00000 0000000000
1556. 3024N 08855W 00000 0005 360 000 284 192 000 00000 0000000000
1557 3024N 08855W 00000 0008 360 000 262 194 000 00000 0000000000
1557. 3024N 08855W 00000 0008 360 000 238 196 000 00000 0000000000
1558 3024N 08855W 00000 0008 360 000 242 198 000 00000 0000000000
1558. 3024N 08855W 00000 0008 360 000 256 194 000 00000 0000000000
1559 3024N 08856W 00000 0008 360 000 248 188 000 00000 0000000000
1559. 3024N 08856W 00000 0008 360 000 256 186 000 00000 0000000000
1600 3024N 08856W 00000 0008 360 000 254 188 000 00000 0000000000
1600. 3024N 08856W 00000 0007 360 000 260 190 000 00000 0000000000
1601 3024N 08856W 00000 0007 360 000 274 192 000 00000 0000000000
1601. 3024N 08856W 00000 0008 360 000 286 196 000 00000 0000000000
1602 3024N 08856W 00000 0007 360 000 294 196 000 00000 0000000000
1602. 3024N 08856W 00000 0007 360 000 288 194 000 00000 0000000000
1603 3024N 08856W 00000 0007 360 000 294 200 000 00000 0000000000
1603. 3024N 08856W 00000 0006 360 000 300 202 000 00000 0000000000

[MWatkins]

Looks like there is probably more than one swirl down there around the broader low...not looking overly tropical in satellite imagery (pronounced comma shape with most of the convection well removed from the center)...

Also...vapor imagery shows a lot of dry air from the fron on the western side. If the circulation does become better defined it is likely going to pull some of that in...which should put a lid on development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

GFS has 30+ knots of southwesterly upper level winds on top of it until it goes over Florida...even through relative shear may be less...it's hard to imagine any strengthening when there is no hint of an outflow...

MW

[DrewFL]

So far in Stuart, FL the radar shows light rain but nothing here. Must be virga. Anyone else experiencing this?

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like there is probably more than one swirl down there around the broader low...not looking overly tropical in satellite imagery (pronounced comma shape with most of the convection well removed from the center)...

Also...vapor imagery shows a lot of dry air from the fron on the western side. If the circulation does become better defined it is likely going to pull some of that in...which should put a lid on development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

GFS has 30+ knots of southwesterly upper level winds on top of it until it goes over Florida...even through relative shear may be less...it's hard to imagine any strengthening when there is no hint of an outflow...

MW

agreed it has some issues... but appearance is not everything.... remember alberto.....

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... o_2006.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

cant quite get more comma shaped than that

[MiamiensisWx]

While I look at the latest images, 92L appears to be improving its organization. Because of the tight sfc gradient, we may be observing increasing amounts of banding around the LLC. Take a peak at the latest visible loop. Note the strong sfc ridge over the system. This may aid further structural improvement. In addition, the LLC appears to be moving north-northeast (with one brief northward wobble in the latest frames). As the tropospheric trough over Texas moves east, we may observe the continuation of a north-northeast or northeast path.

Based on the latest data, 92L may have a better opportunity for subtropical or hybrid genesis. In addition, does anyone notice some signs of a smaller secondary windfield developing near the LLC?

[DESTRUCTION5]

So far in Stuart, FL the radar shows light rain but nothing here. Must be virga. Anyone else experiencing this?

Yep Just drove from Stuart to Teq..Not a drop

[DrewFL]

So far in Stuart, FL the radar shows light rain but nothing here. Must be virga. Anyone else experiencing this?

Yep Just drove from Stuart to Teq..Not a drop

OK....thanks.

[MiamiensisWx]

So far in Stuart, FL the radar shows light rain but nothing here. Must be virga. Anyone else experiencing this?

Yep Just drove from Stuart to Teq..Not a drop

OK....thanks.

The heaviest precipitation is primarily affecting the regions south of Fort Lauderdale. Take a look at the Miami radar. The Keys are receiving a nice dosage of rainfall.

[KQ]

I am in Downtown Stuart. It is lightly sprinkling.
YAY, bring on the rain.

[Jevo]

Looks like there is probably more than one swirl down there around the broader low...not looking overly tropical in satellite imagery (pronounced comma shape with most of the convection well removed from the center)...

Also...vapor imagery shows a lot of dry air from the fron on the western side. If the circulation does become better defined it is likely going to pull some of that in...which should put a lid on development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

GFS has 30+ knots of southwesterly upper level winds on top of it until it goes over Florida...even through relative shear may be less...it's hard to imagine any strengthening when there is no hint of an outflow...

MW

YOUUUUU you're good you...... Imma get the new H3 gassed up... Lets go chase this bastid

good to see ya back in action

[AnnularCane]

agreed it has some issues... but appearance is not everything.... remember alberto.....

I thought at first that this picture was of 92L, and thought it really developed overnight!

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like there is probably more than one swirl down there around the broader low...not looking overly tropical in satellite imagery (pronounced comma shape with most of the convection well removed from the center)...

Also...vapor imagery shows a lot of dry air from the fron on the western side. If the circulation does become better defined it is likely going to pull some of that in...which should put a lid on development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

GFS has 30+ knots of southwesterly upper level winds on top of it until it goes over Florida...even through relative shear may be less...it's hard to imagine any strengthening when there is no hint of an outflow...

MW

YOUUUUU you're good you...... Imma get the new H3 gassed up... Lets go chase this bastid

good to see ya back in action

+


HEY JEV's

[B'hamBlazer]

As I anticipated, the models seem to be now shifting towards the panhandle/big bend area of Florida...

[Flakeys]

It is pouring like crazy down here. We have a lot of wet upset tourists!!

Stan in Tavernier

[Jevo]

Looks like there is probably more than one swirl down there around the broader low...not looking overly tropical in satellite imagery (pronounced comma shape with most of the convection well removed from the center)...

Also...vapor imagery shows a lot of dry air from the fron on the western side. If the circulation does become better defined it is likely going to pull some of that in...which should put a lid on development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

GFS has 30+ knots of southwesterly upper level winds on top of it until it goes over Florida...even through relative shear may be less...it's hard to imagine any strengthening when there is no hint of an outflow...

MW

YOUUUUU you're good you...... Imma get the new H3 gassed up... Lets go chase this bastid

good to see ya back in action

+



HEY JEV's

Aric whats up mannnnn hey we're playing poker at Watkins place tonight come on over ....

Nice to get some rain here....

and I dont feel at all bad about using my sprinklers today!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

lol .. no im in daytona.... you going to be around more this year ?

[Jevo]

lol .. no im in daytona.... you going to be around more this year ?

you know me.... only when the crap hits the fan... or else ill go dizzy keep up with blobcasts....

[Aric Dunn]

lol .. no im in daytona.... you going to be around more this year ?

you know me.... only when the crap hits the fan... or else ill go dizzy keep up with blobcasts....

good stuff... i guess i will see you lot this then lol

[Nimbus]

The low level center is focusing the broad circulation. With the models better initialized the west shift in track should be higher confidence.

Still plenty of shear to pull the rain over Florida yet keep the development down below hurricane strength.

Be interesting to see what recon finds.