Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[philnyc]

What do I think? I personally think this is a 25-30 knot TD right now, pretty much in steady state.

Agreed. Since it's all about the dry air for the time being, we should look at the 700mb RH forecasts, and see what they portend for the next few days.

Question: I am a computer systems guy, but it's all UNIX and application oriented. How do I get a URL for images I've edited on my own PC? i.e. they are not out on the web. When I want to insert an IMG here that I've annotated, I don't know how to get a URL for it, so I can't insert it. Any help?

[Aric Dunn]

Thanks Aric I didn't bother reading above posts.

no prob.. lol .. i just got done typing that .. so i figured i would just direct you to it

[cheezyWXguy]

This may sound silly but why is the quickscat so out of sync. The center is at 9.5N and 42W, but quickscat is at 36W?

The center isnt at 9.5N, just because the center of the convection is...in fact its almost an entire degree north of there and is very common to have a misplaced center in a weak storm...in fact Id almost call it misplaced if it were in the middle of the convection because in a moderately sheared and dry environment, its very difficult to have it symmetrical

[WindRunner]

You have to upload it to a site like imageshack or photobucket (which is far better). Both are free to register at, though neither require it before uploading images.

[philnyc]

However, the convection associated with this system has never been very deep or extensive to begin with.

Which is why this has been and will likely continue to be a slow developing process. Chances are this system has enough going for it to hold together or develop slowly, which is why is must be closely watched if it moves into a more favorable environment. But I don't see this thing breaking any intensification records anytime soon. The idea here is that if we assume it can at least maintain itself as a closed low with moderate convection at times, then such will open the door for concern as it moves west of 55º; an area that may allow for a more favorable environment for intensification. As said before, it's not uncommon to get a system or depression form east of the Windwards, only to have it get shredded in the graveyard that is typical of the Caribbean this time of year. Talk of dry air is going to be a thing of redundancy ad nausea. Must look west young man, haven't you been told?...what's the environment going to be like in a day or so...

Hey guy, I like your thinking all the way. But we've already analyzed the shear and SSTs ahead for the next few days already. They look good. Isn't the only critical thing we need to look at now the forecast mid level RHs for tomorrow, and the next several days. Clearly, the shear will increase as it enters, as you so aptly called it, the graveyard for many storms in the eastern Caribbean. So the question is how well will it do between now and then? I just think it's fun to to speculate, and right now the only truly tough paramter to analyze is the mid level moisture. Everything else looks copasetic until that possible heavy shear as it hits the windwards. So I am "looking west, young man". And don't want to be "Ad nauseum".

[philnyc]

You have to upload it to a site like imageshack or photobucket (which is far better). Both are free to register at, though neither require it before uploading images.

Thanks, windrunner. I'll go check it out.

[Aric Dunn]

However, the convection associated with this system has never been very deep or extensive to begin with.

Which is why this has been and will likely continue to be a slow developing process. Chances are this system has enough going for it to hold together or develop slowly, which is why is must be closely watched if it moves into a more favorable environment. But I don't see this thing breaking any intensification records anytime soon. The idea here is that if we assume it can at least maintain itself as a closed low with moderate convection at times, then such will open the door for concern as it moves west of 55º; an area that may allow for a more favorable environment for intensification. As said before, it's not uncommon to get a system or depression form east of the Windwards, only to have it get shredded in the graveyard that is typical of the Caribbean this time of year. Talk of dry air is going to be a thing of redundancy ad nausea. Must look west young man, haven't you been told?...what's the environment going to be like in a day or so...

Hey guy, I like your thinking all the way. But we've already analyzed the shear and SSTs ahead for the next few days already. They look good. Isn't the only critical thing we need to look at now the forecast mid level RHs for tomorrow, and the next several days. Clearly, the shear will increase as it enters, as you so aptly called it, the graveyard for many storms in the eastern Caribbean. So the question is how well will it do between now and then? I just think it's fun to to speculate, and right now the only truly tough paramter to analyze is the mid level moisture. Everything else looks copasetic until that possible heavy shear as it hits the windwards. So I am "looking west, young man". And don't want to be "Ad nauseum".

copacetic great word.. its spelled wrong but i know what you meant..

never mind it can be spelled both ways.. wow never knew that..

[Aric Dunn]

the first sign that A TD maybe coming soon

its TCFA

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040001Z JUL 07//
WTNT01 KNGU 040000
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 39.8W TO 11.2N 46.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL. SYNOPTIC
DATA 031800Z DOES INDICATE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, A WELL DEFINED
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS AND GOOD CYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. CURRENT MOVEMENT IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS DERIVED FROM HIGH
RESOLUTION QUICKSCAT PASS AND INFARED SATELLITE DERVIED WINDS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPS ARE ESTIMATED AT 82F FROM SST ANALYSIS AND WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 050000Z JULY 2007.//



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/al962007.gif

[wxman57]

the first sign that A TD maybe coming soon

its TCFA

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040001Z JUL 07//
WTNT01 KNGU 040000
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 39.8W TO 11.2N 46.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

Have to highlight that 2nd latitude, too.

[wxman57]

again i assure you its not that far north,,, i personally dont pay much attention to where models initalize systems(especially with such new systems.and one that are not TD yet ).. becasue if you remember they dont do to well at all .. and the nHC at 805.. said near 10N

oh and as for a mid level circ.. there has not been much of one all day because only recently .. has there been convection.. i have been tracking the exposed center all day and as it became dark it was still clearly visible.. now it has been clouded over.. but not when those microwave imges came in.. so they had a clear shot to the surface almost

I'm back from my ride. Still looks like 10.5N or farther north than that now. Even that QS/satellite link you posted had the LLC a tad north of 10.5N. NHC says 10.5, but it's just about impossible to see the LLC on satellite. It could be that we are looking at a MLC farther south and the LLC is ahead and farther north. Won't be sure until morning, though.

I see that every model either doesn't develop a low at all or dissipates it within 72 hours. GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and NOGAPS all show increasing shear in its path beyond about 48 hours. Nice blob of convection south of the center. How far south is the big question. If the center is exposed to the NW of where you put it (as I think it could well be), then it's less organized than earlier. But I have seen such systems "throw out" an LLC and have the LLC redevelop closer to convection. It would appear I need to get up at 5:45 to update our discussion on this system. It's clear NHC will not do anything until they look at it in visible imagery tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

the first sign that A TD maybe coming soon

its TCFA

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040001Z JUL 07//
WTNT01 KNGU 040000
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 39.8W TO 11.2N 46.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

Have to highlight that 2nd latitude, too.

lol yeah .. they have it .. 10.4 on the graphic though.. lol your funny

[Aric Dunn]

again i assure you its not that far north,,, i personally dont pay much attention to where models initalize systems(especially with such new systems.and one that are not TD yet ).. becasue if you remember they dont do to well at all .. and the nHC at 805.. said near 10N

oh and as for a mid level circ.. there has not been much of one all day because only recently .. has there been convection.. i have been tracking the exposed center all day and as it became dark it was still clearly visible.. now it has been clouded over.. but not when those microwave imges came in.. so they had a clear shot to the surface almost

I'm back from my ride. Still looks like 10.5N or farther north than that now. Even that QS/satellite link you posted had the LLC a tad north of 10.5N. NHC says 10.5, but it's just about impossible to see the LLC on satellite. It could be that we are looking at a MLC farther south and the LLC is ahead and farther north. Won't be sure until morning, though.

I see that every model either doesn't develop a low at all or dissipates it within 72 hours. GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and NOGAPS all show increasing shear in its path beyond about 48 hours. Nice blob of convection south of the center. How far south is the big question. If the center is exposed to the NW of where you put it (as I think it could well be), then it's less organized than earlier. But I have seen such systems "throw out" an LLC and have the LLC redevelop closer to convection. It would appear I need to get up at 5:45 to update our discussion on this system. It's clear NHC will not do anything until they look at it in visible imagery tomorrow.

i do agree..

[Aric Dunn]

its actaully starting to pop out from underneath the recent convection as it flares down.. i think that we might get a better look at the center here in the next few images on the shortwave. before the next convective burst.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[philnyc]

Wow, these discussions are really first rate right now. I'm really enjoying this. Loved the comment about the system "throwing out an LLC" and redeveloping another, wxman57. It's a privilege to join this. I just hope I can contribute some meaningful insights.
BTW, regardless of what this one does, it sure seems like conditions are setting up for an early start to the season.

[philnyc]

its actaully starting to pop out from underneath the recent convection as it flares down.. i think that we might get a better look at the center here in the next few images on the shortwave. before the next convective burst.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

BTW, Aric, often not a good sign when the convection dies out at night...

[miamicanes177]

I see that every model either doesn't develop a low at all or dissipates it within 72 hours. GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and NOGAPS all show increasing shear in its path beyond about 48 hours.

As I said, you have to nowcast this. Shear is not an issue. Period. Forget about it. Don't even discuss increasing shear. Shear is 5-10kts. Worry about dry air if you are going to give reason for its demise. Everybody please stop worrying about shear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[hurricanefloyd5]

I have to bet that this is/will be a TD#3 buy 5 am in the AM!!!!!!!!!!!!

[philnyc]

Also, decent equatorward outflow in the upper levels, but practically none poleward right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[philnyc]

I see that every model either doesn't develop a low at all or dissipates it within 72 hours. GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and NOGAPS all show increasing shear in its path beyond about 48 hours.

As I said, you have to nowcast this. Shear is not an issue. Period. Forget about it. Don't even discuss increasing shear. Shear is 5-10kts. Worry about dry air if you are going to give reason for its demise. Everybody please stop worrying about shear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You are 100% correct. Good point. We'll worry about shear at +48 hours.

[miamicanes177]

its actaully starting to pop out from underneath the recent convection as it flares down.. i think that we might get a better look at the center here in the next few images on the shortwave. before the next convective burst.

Yes it is and it's so not even close to 10.65N.