Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[windstorm99]

Local news here reporting hurricane hunters have indeed closed of a circulation with 99L.

wow! did not see that coming. Any verification on recon thread?

Phil Ferro on channel seven in miami said it appeared from the info he was getting that hurricane hunters indeed had closed of a circulation and a TD will be named later this evening.

[brunota2003]

According to the guys in Recon thread, mission over, plane is ascending for home.

[Coredesat]

There was no vortex message, so I really doubt recon closed off a circulation. At any rate, 99L looks quite disorganized now, and even if they did, I'm not so sure the NHC would upgrade it given its current state.

[windstorm99]

There was no vortex message, so I really doubt recon closed off a circulation.

We'll see but i doupt Phil was making it up.I was saying the same thing to my self with no vortex message.

[DrewFL]

She posted that two hours ago. I didn't buy it then either!

[dwg71]

It looks ragged to say the least, i just dont see convection over or near a center???

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[RL3AO]

It is advisory time so what do you think? I say no.

[Brent]

It looks ragged to say the least, i just dont see convection over or near a center???

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

That area near Barbados is the one I'm most interested in.

I don't think there is an LLC right now though, and I do not expect an upgrade at 5.

[chadtm80]

Put me down for another No

[Coredesat]

There was no vortex message, so I really doubt recon closed off a circulation.

We'll see but i doupt Phil was making it up.I was saying the same thing to my self with no vortex message.

Reporters can be wrong; it may have been a ratings stunt. Don't believe everything you hear.

[DrewFL]

No!

[tolakram]

Using my untrained eye, I say it's near a TD and will probably be upgraded to one. While the convection is not very organized at the moment the overall visible structure is looking pretty good. I think the final decision will be based on what lies directly ahead of the system. If conditions are not favorable it will get torn up in short order.

[Cyclone1]

Come on guys! It'll be Tropical Storm Dean in 17 minutes! *denial*

[fox13weather]

Where are all the "it's dead posts"...."stick a fork in it"...."next"? Come on, I really want to know.

Well, here is one. This isn't much now. It is barely better organized than this time yesterday. I did not find a VORTEX message and the convection, while slightly more than yesterday, is still very disorganized. It has a long way to go and is entering an area where climatologically development is slow...

[CrazyC83]

We'll see what the TWO says...

[skysummit]

Since it's so close to being one, maybe they'll hold off on it right now and wait to see if convection can increase over the next few hours. If so, they may upgrade it tonight. Just my thoughts.

[Coredesat]

I will say again, this is not a TD:



It lacks organized convection and has no apparent circulation center. NHC will not upgrade a system without either of these two qualities.

[jrod]

definatly still a wave

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Well I thought my decoder broke. Must have been the plane with the error. Reported an extraploated surface pressure of 987.5 mb.

[NONAME]

I'm going to say no because they will not upgrade with out a vortex message because with out that it means it does not have a closed circulation and is not a depression.

But I do think that if the convection burst near Barbados hold and intensifys. It will become on later toinight or tommorow morning. Convection is the key here.