Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That strong wind near the wave is just my amateur assumption that
tropical waves bring some wind and that I'm sure some of those
awesome thunderstorms are putting out some exciting downbursting
winds.

I'll make sure to include a disclaimer in every forecast so that
readers know my forecasts are not Official/fact based, etc.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I, for one, am quite concerned about development in the western Caribbean with this system, but NOT in the next couple of days. Wind shear is just too strong. Once it passes Jamaica late Tue or Wed, wind shear will be gone and high pressure will dominate aloft Great environment for development. Could well be a west or northwest Gulf threat late this week, and I don't mean just a TS.

Again, NO DEVELOPMENT NEXT 2 DAYS, just some storms. Have to wait for it to pass the TUTT.

thanks for your perspective/opinion- good to read promet opinions.

but wxman you just destroyed my hopes of a tropical storm wind possibly impacting me
in the next 7 days by saying WGOM. Forecast something near me PLEASE
I would do ANYTHING for a tropical storm

My mom/dad told think I'm crazy because I keep wishing
for tropical storms

[jhamps10]

I, for one, am quite concerned about development in the western Caribbean with this system, but NOT in the next couple of days. Wind shear is just too strong. Once it passes Jamaica late Tue or Wed, wind shear will be gone and high pressure will dominate aloft Great environment for development. Could well be a west or northwest Gulf threat late this week, and I don't mean just a TS.

Again, NO DEVELOPMENT NEXT 2 DAYS, just some storms. Have to wait for it to pass the TUTT.

yeah that's my thinking too wxman, that actually makes my thoughts feel better, plus you have back up from one of the mets at accuweather, not JB. although it was yesterday and hinted at more of a florida threat,

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.a ... log=strait

2nd video deals with the tropics.

[ROCK]

Some model updates--

12Z GFS has found the low again and brings it into LA
12Z NOGAPS has it shooting the channel
12Z UKMET / 12Z CMC dont see it yet.(CMC sees a cut off low again passing over Fl and heading into LA. Second run in a row)
NAM takes south if Cuba in 84 hrs....

[jhamps10]

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND T.D. INGRID
IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS 15N-17N BETWEEN
87W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS W OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N75W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONVECTION W OF 70W MOSTLY DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

twd

[Brent]

Something is starting down there... this looks like the next system, and I think it will be a big problem eventually.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z Euro has Louisiana.

[Sanibel]

In general the Caribbean looks like something is trying to spin in high shear.

[ROCK]

12Z Euro has Louisiana.

Yeah I didn't check the EURO.... But that run looks odd as it hit SFL then does a quick right turn and runs it to LA at warp speed...

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps...Looks like a general area from New Orleans to Pensacola hit....



GFS..general Apalachicola hit

[PhillyWX]

I, for one, am quite concerned about development in the western Caribbean with this system, but NOT in the next couple of days. Wind shear is just too strong. Once it passes Jamaica late Tue or Wed, wind shear will be gone and high pressure will dominate aloft Great environment for development. Could well be a west or northwest Gulf threat late this week, and I don't mean just a TS.

Again, NO DEVELOPMENT NEXT 2 DAYS, just some storms. Have to wait for it to pass the TUTT.

I would agree with this assessment. Could be a formidable threat to Northern Mexico, TX, or LA late week. IF the front that moves east through the Midwest in the THU-FRI timeframe is a bit stronger and the trough a bit deeper behind it, the threat might be more LA or East TX.

[crownweather]

I found a few interesting things about the 12Z European model.

1. It continues to hold onto the idea of Caribbean development which is pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico.

2. It appears to strengthen the "storm" right before landfall, which has happened already this season with Humberto, Felix and Dean.

3. The European model holds onto Ingrid and forecasts that Ingrid will be located near the southeastern Bahamas as a strengthening storm by next Tuesday. The timespan between 216 and 240 hours indicates a possible northwest course with a strengthening Ingrid.

For me personally (And I am sticking my neck out here waiting for it to be chopped off) I think we will have a storm coming out of the Caribbean in 3 to 4 days from now that tracks northwestward towards LA or TX this coming weekend. I also think Ingrid won't turn out to sea, but instead track much more westward as is being progged by the BAM models and also the European model.

It should be noted that the European model has been consistent in one way or another (I don't look at strength) that something will be pulled north out of the Caribbean this week.

[wxman57]

based upon the way things look now, the chances of development look slim. The UL continues to dig over the W Carib

Hopefully, I will finally have a week with no TC and I can worry about the important hings, like learning Salsa

Derek,

I can find you something to do over here.

[skysummit]

Crown, that's basically what I'm doing to with this system....keeping a very close eye on the EURO. The EURO was dead on days ahead for both Dean and Felix as far as the setup is concerned. If something were to occur, I'll also go with northwest gulf (Texas) to northern Gulf (Louisiana). If a front is a little quicker...then further east toward Mobile/Pensacola.

[Vortex]

18Z NAM rolling in...

H+18 Formation of low..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_018l.gif

[skysummit]

GFS..general Apalachicola hit

That's not general Apalachicola...

[Ivanhater]

GFS..general Apalachicola hit

That's not general Apalachicola...

Ah your right...Southeast Louisiana hit...what the hell was I looking at then?

[ROCK]

Yeah, Summit that is the 12Z run for sure. He was looking at long range as whats left gets shunted east....at least that is what I think he was looking at....

[Vortex]

Nam H+30

a little stronger

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030l.gif

[crownweather]

Wanted to add something to this. Last night I was bored (I don't have a life...I know!! ) I took a look at the daily weather maps from September 3rd to September 11th, 1961 with Hurricane Carla and compared them with yesterday's 12Z Euro model and there were quite a few similarities in the upper level setup. Only thing that wasn't evident was the progged ULL that was progged by yesterday's 12Z Euro model. If you're bored, just visit http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/dat ... _maps,html