ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CLIPER initially forecasted a moderate El Niño in 1997. Base was December 1996 and pointing towards 1997 and 1998. Seems accuate for such an early timeframe, as Alyono has stated.

[Yellow Evan]

CLIPER initially forecasted a moderate El Niño in 1997. Base was December 1996 and pointing towards 1997 and 1998. Seems accuate for such an early timeframe, as Alyono has stated.

What are they forecasting now?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CLIPER initially forecasted a moderate El Niño in 1997. Base was December 1996 and pointing towards 1997 and 1998. Seems accuate for such an early timeframe, as Alyono has stated.

What are they forecasting now?

I wonder. I could not find any link for a present link. I think they are forecasting a moderate El Niño this time.

[Kingarabian]

CLIPER initially forecasted a moderate El Niño in 1997. Base was December 1996 and pointing towards 1997 and 1998. Seems accuate for such an early timeframe, as Alyono has stated.

Because the CLIPER model makes forecasts on what it CURRENTLY sees. It's a statistical model with minimum dynamics. If SST's are borderline Nino, it's going forecast anywhere between a warm-neutral to weak El-Nino. Vice versa with La-Nina.

It does not factor any sub-surface conditions for it to predict major events.

It's like watching a Basketball/Football game and then choosing the team that is already winning, to win the game.

So whether this makes the CLIPER model good or not in your eyes, it's up to you. 2012 and 2014, as of now have proven that our skill in forecasting ENSO is pretty poor. So maybe it's better for us to follow models like the CLIPER who take safe bets.

[ninel conde]

SOI+19.5 today.

[Yellow Evan]

CLIPER initially forecasted a moderate El Niño in 1997. Base was December 1996 and pointing towards 1997 and 1998. Seems accuate for such an early timeframe, as Alyono has stated.

Because the CLIPER model makes forecasts on what it CURRENTLY sees. It's a statistical model with minimum dynamics. If SST's are borderline Nino, it's going forecast anywhere between a warm-neutral to weak El-Nino. Vice versa with La-Nina.

It does not factor any sub-surface conditions for it to predict major events.

It's like watching a Basketball/Football game and then choosing the team that is already winning, to win the game.

So whether this makes the CLIPER model good or not in your eyes, it's up to you. 2012 and 2014, as of now have proven that our skill in forecasting ENSO is pretty poor. So maybe it's better for us to follow models like the CLIPER who take safe bets.

CLIPER is a typical 1980's model. I also note that the 1997 El Nino was easy for a model like to predict, given that it was our 7th nino in a little over 20 years, so it makes much more sense back then that when you have a warm neutral, you forecast an el Nino. Now, due to -PDO, there is more uncertainty, given that warm neutral's sometimes bust.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CLIPER initially forecasted a moderate El Niño in 1997. Base was December 1996 and pointing towards 1997 and 1998. Seems accuate for such an early timeframe, as Alyono has stated.

Because the CLIPER model makes forecasts on what it CURRENTLY sees. It's a statistical model with minimum dynamics. If SST's are borderline Nino, it's going forecast anywhere between a warm-neutral to weak El-Nino. Vice versa with La-Nina.

It does not factor any sub-surface conditions for it to predict major events.

It's like watching a Basketball/Football game and then choosing the team that is already winning, to win the game.

So whether this makes the CLIPER model good or not in your eyes, it's up to you. 2012 and 2014, as of now have proven that our skill in forecasting ENSO is pretty poor. So maybe it's better for us to follow models like the CLIPER who take safe bets.

CLIPER is a typical 1980's model. I also note that the 1997 El Nino was easy for a model like to predict, given that it was our 7th nino in a little over 20 years, so it makes much more sense back then that when you have a warm neutral, you forecast an el Nino. Now, due to -PDO, there is more uncertainty, given that warm neutral's sometimes bust.

Yes there is a negative PDO phase which started in 2007, but remember that there was an El Nino that occurred in this -PDO era. 2012 turned out to be a bust due to a negative PDO. 2014 has a HIGHER monthly PDO for the month of April compared to past El Nino years though.

2012 had warm anomalies over 1+2 but cooler on the others due to a large area of cold water over south of Alaska and is having a typical PDO of a La Nina. Now, we are having a different situation. But, definitely, this will not end up like 2012.

NOTE:
-When I said warm PDO it meant per month.
-Cold phase is what is happening overall for the past few years.

[South Texas Storms]

The CFSv2 has been consistent in showing a WWB moving slowly east across the equatorial Pacific in the next few weeks.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Yellow Evan]

Because the CLIPER model makes forecasts on what it CURRENTLY sees. It's a statistical model with minimum dynamics. If SST's are borderline Nino, it's going forecast anywhere between a warm-neutral to weak El-Nino. Vice versa with La-Nina.

It does not factor any sub-surface conditions for it to predict major events.

It's like watching a Basketball/Football game and then choosing the team that is already winning, to win the game.

So whether this makes the CLIPER model good or not in your eyes, it's up to you. 2012 and 2014, as of now have proven that our skill in forecasting ENSO is pretty poor. So maybe it's better for us to follow models like the CLIPER who take safe bets.

CLIPER is a typical 1980's model. I also note that the 1997 El Nino was easy for a model like to predict, given that it was our 7th nino in a little over 20 years, so it makes much more sense back then that when you have a warm neutral, you forecast an el Nino. Now, due to -PDO, there is more uncertainty, given that warm neutral's sometimes bust.

Yes there is a negative PDO phase which started in 2007, but remember that there was an El Nino that occurred in this -PDO era. 2012 turned out to be a bust due to a negative PDO. 2014 has a HIGHER monthly PDO for the month of April compared to past El Nino years though.

2012 had warm anomalies over 1+2 but cooler on the others due to a large area of cold water over south of Alaska and is having a typical PDO of a La Nina. Now, we are having a different situation. But, definitely, this will not end up like 2012.

NOTE:
-When I said warm PDO it meant per month.
-Cold phase is what is happening overall for the past few years.

I question the fact that negative PDO started in 2007, but I've seen it listed in several sources, so ill trust them.

Contrary to what I've once and a while heard, we have more of a +PDO setup right now, which increases our chances of a strong El Nino. As for 2009, that was a Modoki.

[cycloneye]

I let those who know more than me to do the analizing thing so I can only post the data. The 30 day SOI continues to go up tonight at +2.2.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[stormkite]

Aussie media is now reporting the progression to El Niño is a 70% chance by late winter that information would have to be from the BOM.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Warm pool slightly getting back in shape. Nino 1+2 cooled slightly at -0.297, Nino 3 warmed at now at +0.44 and Nino 3.4 is at +0.51. We are really ahead of other Nino years, at this day April 24th.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There has been fishkill in parts of Luzon Island and PAGASA finally noticed this and they say that an El Nino will occur in the later parts of the year.

[NDG]

Definitely a big warm up at Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 this week.

[Ntxw]

Modoki becomes even more less likely. That warm pool has fully made it's way up the thermocline in the span of 4 months, starting in the far west ending in the shallow east. Will we get another push down from the west as seen in the animations?

[Ntxw]

The warm pool definitely looks to be shrinking with the latest update

I see it too, and it looks like it isn't making any further progress towards the surface either.

This is partially not true. It is surfacing in the east. In 1997 and many other standard Nino's heading into May areas from 160W on westward flipped to cold values. We are actually warmer than 1997 in this region as +2 and +3C still remains there while the warm pool is surfacing. In 1997 heading into May this region saw -1C to -2C as the warm pool was surfacing in the east.





As you can see in terms of movement of the sub-surface we are still locked with 1997 currently. At the surface 1+2 needs to warm a little faster.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Definitely a big warm up at Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 this week.

Wow. That's some huge warming right there, at a very fast rate. Probably because of the subsurface warm waters reaching the surface. I expect it to reach its first positive values within the next <5 days. CFSv2 makes this area warm unusually fast because of the shallower waters here compared to other regions such as Nino 3.4. Nino 3 really close to Nino threshold.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

El Nino really is closer to reality. The NOAA and BOM should PROBABLY declare it sometime in June or July, as we currently see rapid warming.

[Ntxw]

El Nino really is closer to reality. The NOAA and BOM should PROBABLY declare it sometime in June or July, as we currently see rapid warming.

CPC will probably do it before BOM. My guess is late May or June while BOM will be July as BOM has El Nino threshold being 0.8C rather than 0.5C.

[cycloneye]

SOI is still going up but the pace has slowed.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt