ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Hurricaneman]

Joe Bastardi is still honking the idea of a madoki and mostly basing it off of the SOI while somewhat fundamentally right you have to take in all factors like the subsurface while in slight decay on the eastern side is still quite potent which would probably ultimately make his ENSO forecast a bit flawed

If I were to go with an ENSO forecast I think that Mike Ventrice has a better handle on ENSO at the moment and how everything is working out

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[euro6208]

With no help from another STY Isa, this developing el nino is all on it's own relying on WWB and MJO which is a huge disadvantage compared to 1997. Now i think this el nino will be *weaker* by a slight margin but going for this year against 1997 will be it's record subsurface temps.

Now we wait...

[Hammy]

Nino 1+2 is positive for the first time so far.

[Kingarabian]

Nino 1+2 is positive for the first time so far.

With the approaching sub-surface pool, the trend @ Nino 1+2 for the past month has been borderline neutral. If you take a look at previous months, Nino1+2 would take massive swings. It would shoot up to neutral, and then tank to negative, shoot back up to neutral, and tank again.

[cycloneye]

SOI doesn't care if El Nino is looming.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Alyono]

SOI doesn't care if El Nino is looming.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

meaningless... there is a tropical disturbance near Darwin

[Ntxw]

28C isotherm is making it's way towards Nino 3.4. I know we tout about anomalies but once you understand the thermocline and how it works, it's all about the movement of water. That is 2-3C worth of above normal water immediately below the surface. The heat doesn't just come out of nowhere and create the anomalies, it comes from the push and shove of water from one region to another as the anomalies represent how far the warm western waters have made it to the east.





In response to the warm water, we have seen dramatic rises in the sea level all across the equatorial Pacific. Especially just off the South American coast. Rising sea levels is indicative of warming.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A Modoki-type El Nino is now extremely unlikely. Warmer anomalies now appearing at the equatorial Eastern Pacific as a result of the surfacing of the subsurface warm pool.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Warm pool going back in shape. It is not shrinking anymore.

Last update: 4/24 but date shows 4/18

Currently: 4/26 but date shows 4/18

[cycloneye]

The latest data of 2014 reveals that it has fallen slightly behind the 1997 pace for late April.Let's see how things evolve in the next couple of weeks as May rolls.

Nino 1+2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4

23APR1997 26.6 1.4 27.8 0.4 28.4 0.6 29.5 0.9

16APR2014 24.8-0.7 27.7 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.1 0.6

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[Ntxw]

Here comes the Nino.



Tao has risen steadily this week, we are no longer at 0.2C but higher



What looked like shrinking of the central Pacific warm pool a few days ago is looking more like simply a new down-welling warm pool from the wpac that is once again expanding. What this does if it continues will simply supply the El Nino more warm water beyond just summer.

[Ntxw]

The latest data of 2014 reveals that it has fallen slightly behind the 1997 pace for late April.Let's see how things evolve in the next couple of weeks as May rolls.

Nino 1+2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4

23APR1997 26.6 1.4 27.8 0.4 28.4 0.6 29.5 0.9

16APR2014 24.8-0.7 27.7 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.1 0.6

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

16APR centered 1997 was 0.3, this year is 0.2. That is within margin of error. 23rd centered updated will be on Monday's update. We will be close to the 0.6C.

[dexterlabio]

The Pacific being in a cold PDO state since 2007 is a good enough reason for me to bet against a strong EN this year...but 1972 existed so there's also enough reason to say that a strong one is just as possible to happen.. Also, all this warmup and SOI tanking (a month ago) happened early this year. Seeing progress towards EN during Spring is quite impressive IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

The Pacific being in a cold PDO state since 2007 is a good enough reason for me to bet against a strong EN this year...but 1972 existed so there's also enough reason to say that a strong one is just as possible to happen.. Also, all this warmup and SOI tanking (a month ago) happened early this year. Seeing progress towards EN during Spring is quite impressive IMO.

PDO is warm right now.

1965-66 was also in -POD era and was a super Nino.

[Ntxw]

2009 was also a moderate borderline strong in a -PDO era. Moral of the story is, the background influence is less Nino's in the -PDO, compared to Nina's. But spikes in the PDO during the era is possible and have happened several times to allow decent Nino's to go. They usually happen when the PDO loosens it's grip and equates some positive values as we are seeing.

April and likely May will see +PDO readings continue

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I expect strong but not super. CPC temperatures of +2.0ºC and up.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The El Niño of 1997 had anomalies of over +4.0ºC in Niño 1+2 and over +3.5ºC in Niño 3.

[Yellow Evan]

I expect strong but not super. CPC temperatures of +2.0ºC and up.

That's super.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I expect strong but not super. CPC temperatures of +2.0ºC and up.

That's super.

Oh soorry I'm confused. They say that 2009 was a moderate El Niño when it had anomalies of 1.9C and I thought super starts at 2.5C.

[Yellow Evan]

I expect strong but not super. CPC temperatures of +2.0ºC and up.

That's super.

Oh soorry I'm confused. They say that 2009 was a moderate El Niño when it had anomalies of 1.9C and I thought super starts at 2.5C.

2009 had anomalies of 1.6, not 1.9