ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Niño regions as of now from Tropical Tidbits

1+2: +0.404
3: +0.461
3.4: +0.45
4: +0.651

Dramatic equatorial warming evident in the Niño regions especially Niño 1+2.

[Ntxw]

Niño regions as of now from Tropical Tidbits

1+2: +0.404
3: +0.461
3.4: +0.45
4: +0.651

Dramatic equatorial warming evident in the Niño regions especially Niño 1+2.

Per the CPC update 1+2 warmed 0.8c difference from a week ago, over 1c rise using daily data. The other regions take a month or more for this kind of rise which happened over a week.

We are a little behind 97's 0.6c for the same week. The next week things slowed down, so lets see if we can catch up.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting comment by Eric Blake about the MJO and the start of the season.


Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 3h
MJO influence on start of EPac seas interesting to watch-- too far e by 5/15? If slower, than early start potential?

Help the warming continue?

[Ntxw]

SOI and ESPI are in opposite directions still, though daily SOI is coming down. ESPI is at +1.22, nearing 2009 at it's peak. What that says is simply the Pacific Ocean is very wet relative to the Maritime Continent.

Nino 1+2 after being the big question mark for weeks, is rapidly becoming the front and center of warming it's already warmer than 3 and 3.4

[xtyphooncyclonex]

By July Niño 1+2 is expected to reach strong status according to CFSv2

[Yellow Evan]

Could Tepah help generate another WWB?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Could Tepah help generate another WWB?

Let's see if Tapah will intensify to a category 2. It could also be upgraded by JMA to a typhoon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Where is the MJO now and where is it going to?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Niño 1+2 now at El Niño status, at +0.511°C. Typical of a non Modoki El Niño as it becomes more and more unlikely. Not surprised if it could reach +1°C within the next 2 weeks. All those cool anomalies are replaced by very warm waters.

[cycloneye]

Interesting conversation between pro mets.


Allan Huffman @RaleighWx · 2h
ENSO region 1.2 really warmed in the last few days.




Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 56m
@RaleighWx the downwelling Kelvin wave is finally impacting South America... took a long time but the effects are pretty dramatic


Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 4m
@EricBlake12 @RaleighWx Took awhile to emerge at the surface thanks to the easterly wind phase of the MJO which is strong in upper lvl winds

[cycloneye]

NOAA graphic shows that large warm pool at sub-surface reaching the surface.

NOAA Research
‏@NOAAResearch Slow slosh of warm water across Pacific hints El Niño is brewing. http://go.usa.gov/kfSP Via @NOAAClimate

[Kingarabian]

So it'll be Ninos 1+2 and 3 that will warm up first, correct? Gonna have to wait a bit until 3.4 starts warming.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Niño 1+2 is the warmest at +0.635ºC followed by Niño 4 which is at +0.634ºC then Niño 3 at +0.404ºC then finally Niño 3.4 at +0.37ºC. Full basin El Niño currently in the making.

[Ntxw]

Niño 1+2 is the warmest at +0.635ºC followed by Niño 4 which is at +0.634ºC then Niño 3 at +0.404ºC then finally Niño 3.4 at +0.37ºC. Full basin El Niño currently in the making.

This should be framed as to how easily/quickly changed and volatile 1+2 is. It was only a matter of time without a cold source and coming warm pool. However the important stat is still 3.4 as this determines ENSO. It's been stable so far this week, but in due time 1+2's warmth from the surfacing warm pool will spread into 3 and eventually 3.4 while Nino 4 will likely stay not too far from it is now the rest of the way. TAO buoys is already showing +1C areas within eastern parts of 3 and 1+2, while 0.5C is overspreading 3.4. The Nino ball is already rolling, how strong is the question now.



ESPI is running high, SOI is finally coming down after spending a good part of this month up there as Darwin is losing MJO influence.

[Ntxw]

Putting 1997 aside, lets compare it to the same dates of the three El Nino's post 2000. 2009 had the signature cold PDO Nino look during this time, 2004 and 2006 looks mixed while 2004 was definitely warmer PDO but not a strong looking as this year in that department. So we can call this a -PDO era Nino, but the North Pacific Ocean looks nothing like it at this time. April is going to see a big +PDO reading and all signs are pointing the same for May, no fluke.











Edit: I added 2002, forgot about that one, it was coming off a series of -PDO readings too post 1997.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2014 is definitely going to be at least a strong El Niño for now, but may fluctuate near moderate status at times.

El Niño could be declared by the CPC by mid June or earlier, or July by the BOM. By August, it is expected to intensify to moderate then have that status until late September. IT MAY intensify to strong then could even strengthen more near 2.0 of even higher! It will peak anytime in Winter then weaken. The warm pool starts to be replaced by the cold pool then a La Niña could happen.


The posts in this forum are not official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the CPC and BOM products.

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, that is astonishing. The PDO has lost its grip.

Do you folks think the CPC will raise the odds to 100% and declare a warning?

[cycloneye]

It appears bigtime upwelling is going on at Nino 3.4 and 4.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Niño update next week by the CPC should have 1+2 at El Niño status.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw, that is astonishing. The PDO has lost its grip.

Do you folks think the CPC will raise the odds to 100% and declare a warning?

Not in the May 8th update as Nino 3.4 has not been at or above +0.5C for a long period of time. Let's see if it reach that line sometime in May or June. July looks better for a warning but 3.4 has to stay at or above the +0.5C line and not fall back as it has done right now.