Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

At 48 hours the 00z NAM has the low just NW of the big Lake Okechobee.

[brunota2003]

and a secondary low over cuba?

[cycloneye]

A solo low in GOM by 60 hors at 00z NAM.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still cold core at the 200 mb level per NAM at 60 hours


But apparently developing a warm core at 850 mb per NAM

[Aric Dunn]

Still cold core at the 200 mb level per NAM at 60 hours


But apparently developing a warm core at 850 mb per NAM

well still stacked. at least..

72 hrs nearly all Warm core..

[cycloneye]

What about more stronger at 72 hours with 1000 mbs?

[Aric Dunn]

What about more stronger at 72 hours with 1000 mbs?

yeah.. but the upper low is off to its east and looking at the 200 Mb level there is a lot of shear .. but will see how strong that upper trough is.

[Aric Dunn]

all i can say is that A lot of rain is coming, and just tonight here near daytona just received per doppler estimates over 6 inches of rain!!!

[Aric Dunn]

also if that thing sits in the gulf that long .. watch out for some serious coastal flooding especially the prone area..

[boca]

With our luck here in S FL this low will go around us and not thru us and will probably get a 1/2" of rain.

[AdamFirst]

All we want is rain...and lots of it

my grass has been brown for as long as I can remember

[Extremeweatherguy]

I was noticing this system while looking at the models tonight. Looks like something could try to form in the vicinity of Florida (either east or west depending on the model you look at) sometime this week. I wouldn't at all be surprised if we wind up seeing one of those rare May sub-tropical or tropical storms develop out of this one, but who knows. The only thing that does look certain is that many areas will be getting lots of rain and some breezy winds over the coming days. The forecast for most of Central Florida, for instance, is calling for wind gusts to 30mph+ on Tuesday and into Wednesday, with rain chances at or above 50% in several areas. Overall this system will be a major blessing for a state desperately needing the precipitation ( http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/drmon.gif )!

[gatorcane]

With our luck here in S FL this low will go around us and not thru us and will probably get a 1/2" of rain.

A couple of models most notably the NAM -- which has performed well in forecasting POPS for Southern FL over the past few weeks -- really want to bring in *alot* of rain.

But I agree, I just won't believe it yet until I see the radar echos with all of the rain over our area. There appears to be a pretty good shot of a major rain event this time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

SUNDAY 7 PM

FLORIDA TO BE BATTERED BY NON NAMED STORM



Now NHC will have to name it just to confound him. Maybe.

[boca]

One of the local channels said that most likely that system south of Cuba would deepen and most likely move thru the Bahamas, less likely the GOM. This would put S FL on the dry side of this sytem.Although we could get afternoon storms it wouldn't be a wash out which is what we need.

[AtlanticWind]

Storm to Slam Florida could Gain Tropical Characteristics
A storm system is expected to emerge into the Straits of Florida Monday and pummel the state throughout the upcoming week. Torrential rainfall will likely produce flooding across the peninsula, while high winds blast the coastline of Florida and some neighboring states. AccuWeather.com meteorologists are monitoring the potential for this storm to gain tropical characteristics and become the first named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

From Accuweather

[Aric Dunn]

SUNDAY 7 PM

FLORIDA TO BE BATTERED BY NON NAMED STORM



Now NHC will have to name it just to confound him. Maybe.

whats that from?

[Evil Jeremy]

One of the local channels said that most likely that system south of Cuba would deepen and most likely move thru the Bahamas, less likely the GOM. This would put S FL on the dry side of this sytem.Although we could get afternoon storms it wouldn't be a wash out which is what we need.

Are those the same local channels that said that Wilma would be a Cat 1, and generally end up predicting the opposite of what is going to happen sometimes lol?

This is Florida, and this is the tropics. Anything can happen.

[AdamFirst]

One of the local channels said that most likely that system south of Cuba would deepen and most likely move thru the Bahamas, less likely the GOM. This would put S FL on the dry side of this sytem.Although we could get afternoon storms it wouldn't be a wash out which is what we need.

Don't all the models having it go east of Florida cross over the peninsula eventually?

[brunota2003]

Storm to Slam Florida could Gain Tropical Characteristics
A storm system is expected to emerge into the Straits of Florida Monday and pummel the state throughout the upcoming week. Torrential rainfall will likely produce flooding across the peninsula, while high winds blast the coastline of Florida and some neighboring states. AccuWeather.com meteorologists are monitoring the potential for this storm to gain tropical characteristics and become the first named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

From Accuweather

Yeah...30 mph gusts...quick! To the bat cave!