2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#441 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 13, 2013 6:08 pm

weatherwindow wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Hey folks,the July MSLP update from ECMWF is out and shows normal pressures in MDR but higher ones in GOM and Western Atlantic. Remember that this model sees El Nino developing and that may be why it has this bias towards higher pressures.

http://i.imgur.com/6rVkmNY.png[/quotehe

Good evening, Luis...I didnt realize the Euro was still hanging onto an El Nino..Im surprised....Rich


Hi Rich. On the 15th,the ECMWF will have a new forecast for ENSO and we will know if it has changed to Neutral or continues with El Nino.
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#442 Postby ninel conde » Sat Jul 13, 2013 6:59 pm

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 7m

Hottest weather of summer coming to east and midwest, but may be last surge of season as major cooling follows, with cool August in works.

i just dont see how he can have 96/99/04/05/54/55 as analogs for this season. someone can check to be sure, but i think they were mostly warm augusts in those years.
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#443 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 13, 2013 7:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:Hey folks,the July MSLP update from ECMWF is out and shows normal pressures in MDR but higher ones in GOM and Western Atlantic. Remember that this model sees El Nino developing and that may be why it has this bias towards higher pressures. As we know by all the information that is being posted at the ENSO Updates thread,there are no signs of El Nino coming anytime soon.

http://i.imgur.com/6rVkmNY.png

The ECMWF has been doing kind of poorly for about the past year around the time when it originally predicted TS Debby to become a minimal hurricane and hit the TX Gulf coast. So it wouldn't shock me at all to see this forecast bust. An El Niño next year seems more likely.
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Re:

#444 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 13, 2013 7:16 pm

ninel conde wrote:Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 7m

Hottest weather of summer coming to east and midwest, but may be last surge of season as major cooling follows, with cool August in works.

i just dont see how he can have 96/99/04/05/54/55 as analogs for this season. someone can check to be sure, but i think they were mostly warm augusts in those years.

Joe Bastardi may be saying a cool August, but I have not seen any mention of more troughiness even though that usually would be the reason for cooler weather.

Also I usually just look at Joe B. for entertainment purposes even though he does sometimes get things right.

Long range patterns are almost impossible to predict more than a week or two in advance anyways. But for some weird reason I feel like the U.S. may escape any major hurricane/storm hits this year. Just a gut feeling.
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Re:

#445 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jul 13, 2013 7:53 pm

ninel conde wrote:Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 7m

Hottest weather of summer coming to east and midwest, but may be last surge of season as major cooling follows, with cool August in works.

i just dont see how he can have 96/99/04/05/54/55 as analogs for this season. someone can check to be sure, but i think they were mostly warm augusts in those years.

Mixed bag.

August 1954 - http://i.imgur.com/KiMeTJg.png
August 1955 - http://i.imgur.com/wTLDE5Z.png
August 1996 - http://i.imgur.com/YccZD4k.png
August 1999 - http://i.imgur.com/5ipp0AY.png
August 2004 - http://i.imgur.com/HYcZWyw.png
August 2005 - http://i.imgur.com/G26Cf5a.png
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Re: Re:

#446 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Jul 13, 2013 8:45 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
ninel conde wrote:Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 7m

Hottest weather of summer coming to east and midwest, but may be last surge of season as major cooling follows, with cool August in works.

i just dont see how he can have 96/99/04/05/54/55 as analogs for this season. someone can check to be sure, but i think they were mostly warm augusts in those years.

Joe Bastardi may be saying a cool August, but I have not seen any mention of more troughiness even though that usually would be the reason for cooler weather.

Also I usually just look at Joe B. for entertainment purposes even though he does sometimes get things right.

Long range patterns are almost impossible to predict more than a week or two in advance anyways. But for some weird reason I feel like the U.S. may escape any major hurricane/storm hits this year. Just a gut feeling.


If one looks at the hurricane history for my area(Boca Raton, FL) then you would see that my area has never gone more then 7 years without significant impacts from a tropical cyclone. If we do not have a impact this year then we would break the record for longest period without a tropical cyclone. So the odds are that South Florida will experience some sort of impact this year. Of course I could be wrong but I do not like the odds stacked against us.
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#447 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 13, 2013 9:57 pm

I'm not expecting any storms until the first week of August, but with the MJO coming back around into the 2\3 area things should pick up like gangbusters then and the ridge in place really doesn't look like its going to change much, ULLs and LLCCs are forming ESE of Bermuda and coming to Florida so that stands the reason that a major Cape Verde system will come to Florida too especially from mid August to mid September

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Re: Re:

#448 Postby beoumont » Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:14 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:If one looks at the hurricane history for my area(Boca Raton, FL) then you would see that my area has never gone more then 7 years without significant impacts from a tropical cyclone. If we do not have a impact this year then we would break the record for longest period without a tropical cyclone. So the odds are that South Florida will experience some sort of impact this year. Of course I could be wrong but I do not like the odds stacked against us.


Please list the significant impacts, and what they were, from any and all tropical cyclones on S. Florida between 1966 and 1991. I don't recall any sustained hurricane winds during that period on record.
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#449 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Jul 14, 2013 12:49 am

beoumont wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:If one looks at the hurricane history for my area(Boca Raton, FL) then you would see that my area has never gone more then 7 years without significant impacts from a tropical cyclone. If we do not have a impact this year then we would break the record for longest period without a tropical cyclone. So the odds are that South Florida will experience some sort of impact this year. Of course I could be wrong but I do not like the odds stacked against us.


Please list the significant impacts, and what they were, from any and all tropical cyclones on S. Florida between 1966 and 1991. I don't recall any sustained hurricane winds during that period on record.



Hurricane Inez hit the Florida Keys in 1966 and Hurricane David hit Palm Beach county in 1979. Both cyclones produced sustained hurricane force winds in South Florida. Hurricane Floyd of 1987 technically showed as making landfall in the Florida Keys as a hurricane...but I dont know for sure if it counts because it was undergoing extra tropical transition right around the time it was making landfall in the Keys. Sustained hurricane force winds would not occur in South Florida again until Andrew in 1992. Not quite the 7 years or so average that Bocadude was referring to...but it did happen in the timeframe you mentioned. Just sayin...

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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#450 Postby beoumont » Sun Jul 14, 2013 3:56 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Hurricane Inez hit the Florida Keys in 1966 and Hurricane David hit Palm Beach county in 1979. Both cyclones produced sustained hurricane force winds in South Florida. Hurricane Floyd of 1987 technically showed as making landfall in the Florida Keys as a hurricane...but I dont know for sure if it counts because it was undergoing extra tropical transition right around the time it was making landfall in the Keys. Sustained hurricane force winds would not occur in South Florida again until Andrew in 1992. Not quite the 7 years or so average that Bocadude was referring to...but it did happen in the timeframe you mentioned. Just sayin...

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Thanks for reminding me about Inez. You are correct on it producing sustained hurricane winds in the Florida Keys; but it did not on the peninsula. I flew to Miami from FSU to "intercept" and was highly disappointed as cold air aloft intruded into the core as the eye sat stationary over the Bahamas and weakened what was once the "Great Hurricane Inez" in the Caribbean. Eventually a ridge built and the center tracked WSW into the upper Keys and by the time it reached Key West the maximum winds were in the order of 125 mph. But when it came south of Miami, beginning to intensify, the highest wind on the mainland was a GUST of 80 mph at Homestead. Hence, this was the first year of a 27 year drought of sustained hurricane winds in the S. Florida peninsula. If anyone is interested in the complete report of Inez the parent folder of many pages is located here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1966-prelim/inez/

I intercepted the eye of Floyd on the Long Key bridge in 1987. The main thing I remember is that the "eye" was concave shaped on the NE side because dry cold air aloft came crashing into the core as the storm came into the Keys from the WSW. The highest sustained winds reported in Florida was 51 knots at Duck Key; which was just a few miles south of where we were perched on the catwalk of the bridge for many hours. Barely rained at all. The preliminary report is here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1987-prelim/floyd/prelim01.gif

David was another super intense hurricane in the Caribbean. Being disappointed that David did not re-intensify as it approached S. Florida I drove north from Miami to intercept the eye at Ft. Pierce inlet; where winds got up to 70 mph sustained---the highest sustained winds reported in the state. It came ashore in N. Palm Beach and the 25 mile eye moved directly along the coast to New Smyrna Beach; hence over many official recording stations. S. Melbourne received the highest gusts, at 75 knts; and Jupiter 74 knots. There were no sustained hurricane winds reported in Florida, as is noted in the NHC report. The preliminary report is here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1979-prelim/david/.

Personally, my disappointment was tempered greatly soon thereafter, as I experienced 135 mph+ wind gusts in Mobile, AL during Frederick, nine days later. As we drove into Mobile and stupidly, but luckily, sat at a red light, half a prefab. gas station broke loose in a nasty gust, and rolled through the intersection in front of our car. We soon found shelter at a school, and I painfully learned that it takes about 85 mph winds to abruptly knock a stout man off his feet.

Of course, the definition of "significant" effects on the mainland of Florida is a subjective judgement in all cases; but what I was questioning was the often referred to 27 year drought of sustained hurricane winds in the Florida "Peninsula" from 1965-1992. I painfully lived through that drought, mostly in Miami.

From 1850 or so till present day, it is the accepted "average" that a hurricane does hit S. Florida once every 7 years; so as Bocadude accurately pointed out, S. Florida is "overdue".
Last edited by beoumont on Sun Jul 14, 2013 9:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#451 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Jul 14, 2013 7:58 am

beoumont wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Hurricane Inez hit the Florida Keys in 1966 and Hurricane David hit Palm Beach county in 1979. Both cyclones produced sustained hurricane force winds in South Florida. Hurricane Floyd of 1987 technically showed as making landfall in the Florida Keys as a hurricane...but I dont know for sure if it counts because it was undergoing extra tropical transition right around the time it was making landfall in the Keys. Sustained hurricane force winds would not occur in South Florida again until Andrew in 1992. Not quite the 7 years or so average that Bocadude was referring to...but it did happen in the timeframe you mentioned. Just sayin...

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Thanks for reminding me about Inez. You are correct on it producing sustained hurricane winds in the Florida Keys; but it did not on the peninsula. I flew to Miami from FSU to "intercept" and was highly disappointed as cold air aloft intruded into the core as the eye sat stationary over the Bahamas and weakened what was once the "Great Hurricane Inez" in the Caribbean. Eventually a ridge built and the center tracked WSW into the upper Keys and by the time it reached Key West the maximum winds were in the order of 125 mph. But when it came south of Miami, beginning to intensify, the highest wind on the mainland was a GUST of 80 mph at Homestead. Hence, this was the first year of a 27 year drought of sustained hurricane winds in the S. Florida peninsula. If anyone is interested in the complete report of Inez the parent folder of many pages is located here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1966-prelim/inez/

I intercepted the eye of Floyd on the Long Key bridge in 1987. The main thing I remember is that the "eye" was concave shaped on the NE side because dry cold air aloft came crashing into the core as the storm came into the Keys from the WSW. The highest sustained winds reported in Florida was 51 knots at Duck Key; which was just a few miles south of where we were perched on the catwalk of the bridge for many hours. Barely rained at all. The preliminary report is here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1987-prelim/floyd/prelim01.gif

David was another super intense hurricane in the Caribbean. Being disappointed that David did not re-intensify as it approached S. Florida I drove north from Miami to intercept the eye at Ft. Pierce inlet; where winds got up to 70 mph sustained---the highest sustained winds reported in the state. It came ashore in N. Palm Beach and the 25 mile eye moved directly along the coast to New Smyrna Beach; hence over many official recording stations. S. Melbourne received the highest gusts, at 75 knts; and Jupiter 74 knots. There were no sustained hurricane winds reported in Florida, as is noted in the NHC report. The preliminary report is here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1979-prelim/david/.

Personally, my disappointment was tempered greatly soon thereafter, as I experienced 135 mph+ wind gusts in Mobile, AL during Frederick, nine days later. As we drove into Mobile and stupidly, but luckily, sat at a red light, half a prefab. gas station broke loose in a nasty gust, and rolled through the intersection in front of our car. We soon found shelter at a school, and I painfully learned that it takes about 85 mph winds to abruptly knock a stout man off his feet.

Of course, the definition of "significant" effects on the mainland of Florida is an objective judgement in all cases; but what I was questioning was the often referred to 27 year drought of sustained hurricane winds in the Florida "Peninsula" from 1965-1992. I painfully lived through that drought, mostly in Miami.

From 1850 or so till present day, it is the accepted "average" that a hurricane does hit S. Florida once every 7 years; so as Bocadude accurately pointed out, S. Florida is "overdue".


I quoted your post and it specifically said S. Florida. South Florida includes palm beach county and even they keys. If you actually meant Florida peninsula, then I apologize because that is something different which I did not take into consideration.

Your discussions about the hurricanes bring up an important point however. I think that strike frequency should not really be measured by recorded wind speeds only because we all know that hurricane events are sooo much more then winds alone. You have storm surge, flooding and everything else that comes with it

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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#452 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Jul 14, 2013 11:52 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
beoumont wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:If one looks at the hurricane history for my area(Boca Raton, FL) then you would see that my area has never gone more then 7 years without significant impacts from a tropical cyclone. If we do not have a impact this year then we would break the record for longest period without a tropical cyclone. So the odds are that South Florida will experience some sort of impact this year. Of course I could be wrong but I do not like the odds stacked against us.


Please list the significant impacts, and what they were, from any and all tropical cyclones on S. Florida between 1966 and 1991. I don't recall any sustained hurricane winds during that period on record.



Hurricane Inez hit the Florida Keys in 1966 and Hurricane David hit Palm Beach county in 1979. Both cyclones produced sustained hurricane force winds in South Florida. Hurricane Floyd of 1987 technically showed as making landfall in the Florida Keys as a hurricane...but I dont know for sure if it counts because it was undergoing extra tropical transition right around the time it was making landfall in the Keys. Sustained hurricane force winds would not occur in South Florida again until Andrew in 1992. Not quite the 7 years or so average that Bocadude was referring to...but it did happen in the timeframe you mentioned. Just sayin...

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE


Im sorry I should have been more specific, I was referring to tropical storm conditions as "significant impacts". The longest period without tropical storm conditions that I am aware of is the period from 1967-1973.
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#453 Postby ninel conde » Sun Jul 14, 2013 5:36 pm

Back in march when Joe Bastardi made his seasonal forecast he made a big deal out of how super favorable the 400mb was. Now, not so much. I think he is going to start backing off. JMO.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

ACE this year NHEM 62% of normal and 400 mb temp/rh shows why. Temps not far from norm, but rh below!

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 80/photo/1
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#454 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 15, 2013 8:16 am

Here is the July ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO and it has normal pressures in most of the North Atlantic except in the Western Atlantic and in part of GOM.

Image
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#455 Postby crownweather » Mon Jul 15, 2013 8:37 am

cycloneye wrote:Here is the July ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO and it has normal pressures in most of the North Atlantic except in the Western Atlantic and in part of GOM.

Image


Interesting. Perhaps a blocking ridge over Texas with a Bermuda high offshore setting up a hurricane corridor into Florida & central/eastern Gulf. Drew it out based on that Euro image. Area circled in red would be the "hurricane corridor".

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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#456 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jul 15, 2013 9:25 am

Ouch! :uarrow: Very persistent high pressure thus far this early on might indeed spell trouble for Florida and the gulf come the meat of the season.
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#457 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jul 15, 2013 10:42 am

That looks like sea level pressures. Arent hurricanes primarily steered by the mid levels such as the 500mb flow for example?

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#458 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Jul 15, 2013 10:50 am

I'm kind of curious what time this year we can expect the season to pick up big-time? I know the prediction center is expecting big numbers, so I'm wondering how early in the season it needs to pick up in order for those large numbers to still verify?? I know early to mid July is probably way too early still.... This is more of a question of curiosity is all....
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#459 Postby baytownwx » Mon Jul 15, 2013 10:50 am

Levi Cowan posted this on twitter:
@TropicalTidbits: CPTEC precip anomaly shows active MDR for ASO - makes more sense than Euro given cool EPAC, cool IO, Atlantic tripole http://t.co/BotoAlh2vi
Image
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ninel conde

#460 Postby ninel conde » Mon Jul 15, 2013 10:52 am

if we are lucky maybe dry air will make this a slow season. Joe Bastardi has made alot of negative tweets lately. this is today's.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 32m

Meanwhile Global ace has tanked as dry air rules the tropics. Globally about 60% normal,opposite IPCC trapping theory pic.twitter.com/td43pvivsb
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