2015 Global model runs discussion

#441 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:28 am

GFS is full throttle, depicting stronger and stronger disturbances rolling of Africa as time goes on:

First one rolls off Africa in about 5-7 days (183 hours shown):

Second one is more robust and farther into the future (384 hours shown below):

lordkev · #442 Postby **lordkev** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:43 am

gatorcane wrote:GFS is full throttle, depicting stronger and stronger disturbances rolling of Africa as time goes on:

That GFS run has it down to 996mb already at 384h by the Cape Verde islands. :eek:

TheStormExpert · #443 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:45 am

Here is a better look at it @ 384hrs. Is this a sign of things to come or just the GFS being it's old self? Only time will tell! But interesting nonetheless.

Looks like there is also something else behind it. :darrow:

#444 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:51 am

Gatorcane,

Do you think the Gfs is doing this because of climatology only because current conditions are just outright hostile out there?? Or maybe it sees conditions improving??

#445 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 11:32 am

The wave train starts picking up in August so its not surprising that the long range GFS is showing it. However, I'm very skeptical about conditions being favorable for the waves...

#446 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 11:41 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Gatorcane,

Do you think the Gfs is doing this because of climatology only because current conditions are just outright hostile out there?? Or maybe it sees conditions improving??

The GFS is not a climatology-based model so whatever it is seeing could be some better conditions out in the MDR for these waves.

Latest 12Z GFS run one week out with 94L heading west (doesn't kill it off until around 220+ hours into the run which is too far out to have any confidence) and another larger system behind it. Looking active in the MDR if you ask me. August has arrived folks:

168 hours below:

#447 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:32 pm

What is left of 94L reaches PR and it would be good to bring some very needed rain.

#448 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:40 pm

RL3AO wrote:The wave train starts picking up in August so its not surprising that the long range GFS is showing it. However, I'm very skeptical about conditions being favorable for the waves...

Even if things are not going to be too favorable at least PR and many of the islands that are going thru the drought need at least a couple of strong waves that dump plenty of rain.

Hammy · #449 Postby **Hammy** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:06 pm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015073012/gfs_z850_vort_nafr_51.png

Nice to see the annual parade of GFS phantom storms has begun, complete with an 80 mph hurricane forming over desert. :lol:

#450 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:18 pm

lol Hammy pretty funny. We know that won't verify!

boca · #451 Postby **boca** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 5:06 pm

I actually miss Florida getting hit by phantom storms from the GFS.

#452 Postby **jlauderdal** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 5:47 pm

boca wrote:I actually miss Florida getting hit by phantom storms from the GFS.

no worries..even in these hostile conditions sofla will get nailed by the gfs by oct 1

#453 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:04 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
boca wrote:I actually miss Florida getting hit by phantom storms from the GFS.

no worries..even in these hostile conditions sofla will get nailed by the gfs by oct 1

GFS has gone from overdoing genesis to underdoing it. That problem has been corrected. The only thing that hasn't seem to fix is the MJO forecasting issues.

#454 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:24 pm

Latest GFS develops low behind 94l and moves it far west through the Caribbean and the run ends with it hitting Hispaniola.

Next run it should have it hitting Florida :lol:

TheStormExpert · #455 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:25 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
boca wrote:I actually miss Florida getting hit by phantom storms from the GFS.

no worries..even in these hostile conditions sofla will get nailed by the gfs by oct 1

GFS has gone from overdoing gensis to underdoing it. That problem has been corrected. The only thing that hasn't seem to e fixes is the MJO forecasting issues.

So this is a MJO forecasting issue?

#456 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:32 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:So this is a MJO forecasting issue?

Maybe but I was talking short-range above.

#457 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:Latest GFS develops low behind 94l and moves it far west through the Caribbean and the run ends with it hitting Hispaniola.

Next run it should have it hitting Florida

long-range GFS - system heading WNW through NE Leewards and an active MDR:

Development starts near the Cape Verde islands in about 1 week:

Hurricaneman · #458 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 11:28 pm

The 0z GFS forms something behind 94L at 132hrs

The 18zGFS forms the same area at 144hrs

The 12zGFS forms the same area at 132hrs

The 6zGFS forms the same area at 132hrs

so its really not moving up its timetable so it may be hard to believe that system will come to fruition now if it starts moving up in timetable then it may be something to talk about

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Hurricaneman · #459 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 11:39 pm

The 0zGFS has a much better organized system 168 than the 18z at 174 so thats a trend that needs to be watched but since there isn't much in the wave where this comes from at the moment it may be a phantom storm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

TheStormExpert · #460 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:27 am

06z GFS 384hrs.

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