Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[SFLcane]

Even Jim is wondering why this isn’t an invest yet.

 https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1304031945689632768

[cycloneye]

Even Jim is wondering why this isn’t an invest yet.

https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1 ... 5689632768?

I guess we have to tweet Eric Blake.

[TheStormExpert]

Euro ends here

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200910/6e0dac1c4859876440e6fe07e9d753e3.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What a cliffhanger!

[Blown Away]

00z GFS with many impacts...

[plasticup]

Surprised this isn't an Invest yet. 60/90 almost always is.

[StPeteMike]

Not liking that latest GFS. Pretty much catastrophic forecasting for the whole Tampa Bay Area.

[chris_fit]

https://i.imgur.com/UCTqLPt.gif
00z GFS with many impacts...

Very Charley-esque

[TheStormExpert]

https://i.imgur.com/ObeCSwt.gif

Irma 2.0

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/UCTqLPt.gif
00z GFS with many impacts...

That is the 00z run.

[aspen]

What's extremely concerning is that the last few GFS runs, as well as the Euro and CMC runs that have a low-rider scenario, have future Sally go right through an area of exceptionally high SSTs east of the Lesser Antilles that is capable of supporting a <900 mbar, >150 kt Cat 5 hurricane. This is 5-6 days out, so the track could shift to the north (especially if Sally develops faster than these runs show), but this consensus from the three most reliable global models is very worrying.

[northjaxpro]

Not liking that latest GFS. Pretty much catastrophic forecasting for the whole Tampa Bay Area.

If this run were to come to fruition, it would be devastating for virtually the entire peninsula.

[cycloneye]

Visible loop.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... HyT53X_Kk#

[SconnieCane]

So from "guaranteed fish" (from a couple posters in particular) yesterday to "GOM is in play" today. Of course, it could be completely different tomorrow, or even by the time today's 12Z runs finish coming in. This is why I tell people not to get hung up on model runs 10+ days in advance. Focus on teleconnections and ensembles, with a heavy dose of skepticism due to subtle/un-model-able-at-long-range factors such as interaction with the other TCs.

This is the fun part, folks. Buckle up.

[Kazmit]

This is ridiculous.

[ConvergenceZone]

So from "guaranteed fish" (from a couple posters in particular) yesterday to "GOM is in play" today. Of course, it could be completely different tomorrow, or even by the time today's 12Z runs finish coming in. This is why I tell people not to get hung up on model runs 10+ days in advance. Focus on teleconnections and ensembles, with a heavy dose of skepticism due to subtle/un-model-able-at-long-range factors such as interaction with the other TCs.

This is the fun part, folks. Buckle up.

My “fish” post, as I had mentioned was due to the fact of believing this would develop rapidly. Obviously if that DOESN’T happen, then “fish” is much less likely. We shall see

[curtadams]

Wondering why the NHC has the 2-day so high. A very vigorous wave, for sure, and likely to develop something, but it doesn't look imminent. The globals give a more plausible prediction with a median development at 3-4 days. I'd say 30/80 rather than 60/90. What would drive them to put it so high? Rene's wave looked *much* better when it splashed down.

Also, don't get too concerned about exact landfalls in a 400 hour ahead forecast. An amorphous wave just off Africa could go anywhere in the basin, including the open Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

This is ridiculous.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200910/two-atl-5d0.png

It's peak season day! But what's the record number of areas of interest on that map? I don't think I've seen more than six at a time.

[NDG]

This is ridiculous.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200910/two-atl-5d0.png

If at least one of the disturbances in the GOM develops next week along with the emerging AEWs we could have 5 tropical systems in the Atlantic basin next week, incredible.
Does anyone what is the record?

[GCANE]

This is the largest moisture convergence I have seen all year.
Pulling everything out of the ITCZ all the way to South America.
Even cutting off Rene and Paulette.
Its the whole monsoon trough rolled up into a powder keg.

[GCANE]

Anything that rolls into the W Carib as a Cat 1 will roll out as a Cat 4 or 5.