2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[NDG]

Lol! I stated in my recent post concerning the mdr it was early and things could and will change.

haha as did I yesterday IRT the hand wringing already starting about SST's. Just wait till that first big plume of SAL hits

Anyway, We are just one week away from NOAA's outlook and I'm very interested to see if it's in a similar position as CSU is.

NOAA is usually not as conservative as the CSU team.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1392978962549297157

[NDG]

I will be really interested in seeing what the UKMET/ECMWF Super Ensemble shows for ASO, it pretty much nailed the busy GOM activity last year.

[AutoPenalti]

I will be really interested in seeing what the UKMET/ECMWF Super Ensemble shows for ASO, it pretty much nailed the busy GOM activity last year.

Any idea when that releases?

[NDG]

I will be really interested in seeing what the UKMET/ECMWF Super Ensemble shows for ASO, it pretty much nailed the busy GOM activity last year.

Any idea when that releases?

It should be coming out over the next few days or weeks.

[Shell Mound]

Actually, in this case I am implying a reduced risk to the entire U.S. East Coast as well as peninsular Florida. The fact that the MDR is currently cooler than the subtropics as well as the global tropics implies that more sinking air, a strongly suppressive factor, will be present over the MDR. Sinking air also tends to indicate a stronger and/or more persistent TUTT, resulting in increased VWS as well as more OTS tracks due to the TUTT inducing weaknesses in the subtropical ridge (Bermuda–Azores High). Note that the ECMWF shows a pronounced TUTT over the central Atlantic, with the ridge displaced well to the north, during August and September, which would encourage more OTS tracks as well. Also, the neutral IOD and warmer Gulf of Guinea would support a weaker African monsoon than we have seen in recent seasons. Given current trends I think the forecasts that call for a very/hyperactive season, notably CSU’s, are increasingly unlikely to verify. ≥ 150 ACE and ≥ four majors? Unlikely.

As an aside, the following is quite interesting:

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392486699830231043

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392915105483001856
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1392942501171015684
Note the strong TUTT imparting enhanced westerly VWS over the eastern Caribbean and portions of the MDR. This could reduce the risk of U.S. MH landfalls.*

*According to HURDAT, roughly 75% of all U.S. MH originated in the MDR, so hostile conditions in the MDR + 2020-type African monsoon → reduced risk.

Ok, then what about major hurricanes like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charley, Opal, Michael, Elena, Camille, King, and Labor Day (1935)? Those are some examples of very notable US major hurricanes that did not really originate in the MDR, so I am not exactly sure how having a hostile MDR would necessarily reduce the risk of landfalling US MHs?

As I mentioned, since 1851 most (not all, but roughly three-fourths) of the MH to make landfall on the CONUS initially developed in the MDR, including:

• 1886 Indianola
• 1893 Sea Islands, Charleston
• 1898 Georgia
• 1899 San Ciriaco
• 1900/1915 Galveston
• 1917 Nueva Gerona
• 1918 Louisiana
• 1926 Miami
• 1928 San Felipe II / Okeechobee
• 1933 Cuba–Brownsville, Treasure Coast
• 1938 New England
• 1945 Homestead
• 1947 Fort Lauderdale
• 1949 Florida
• 1960 Donna
• 1965 Betsy
• 1989 Hugo
• 1992 Andrew
• 1996 Fran
• 2004 Charley,* Ivan
• 2017 Harvey, Irma

*Charley’s initial coordinates were actually in the westernmost MDR

Helene (1958), which did not make landfall yet produced MH conditions in Cape Fear, NC, also developed over the MDR.

So, yes, an active MDR would climatologically, on average, tend to increase the risk of MH landfalls on the CONUS, all other factors being equal.

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392915105483001856
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1392942501171015684
Note the strong TUTT imparting enhanced westerly VWS over the eastern Caribbean and portions of the MDR. This could reduce the risk of U.S. MH landfalls.*

*According to HURDAT, roughly 75% of all U.S. MH originated in the MDR, so hostile conditions in the MDR + 2020-type African monsoon → reduced risk.

Ok, then what about major hurricanes like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charley, Opal, Michael, Elena, Camille, King, and Labor Day (1935)? Those are some examples of very notable US major hurricanes that did not really originate in the MDR, so I am not exactly sure how having a hostile MDR would necessarily reduce the risk of landfalling US MHs?

As I mentioned, since 1851 most (not all, but roughly three-fourths) of the MH to make landfall on the CONUS initially developed in the MDR, including:

• 1886 Indianola
• 1893 Sea Islands, Charleston
• 1898 Georgia
• 1899 San Ciriaco
• 1900/1915 Galveston
• 1917 Nueva Gerona
• 1918 Louisiana
• 1926 Miami
• 1928 San Felipe II / Okeechobee
• 1933 Cuba–Brownsville, Treasure Coast
• 1938 New England
• 1945 Homestead
• 1947 Fort Lauderdale
• 1949 Florida
• 1960 Donna
• 1965 Betsy
• 1989 Hugo
• 1992 Andrew
• 1996 Fran
• 2004 Charley,* Ivan
• 2017 Harvey, Irma

*Charley’s initial coordinates were actually in the westernmost MDR

Helene (1958), which did not make landfall yet produced MH conditions in Cape Fear, NC, also developed over the MDR.

So, yes, an active MDR would climatologically, on average, tend to increase the risk of MH landfalls on the CONUS, all other factors being equal.

Well, it's also statistically probable that out of the many waves you see from an active MDR, one of them will develop as a major and make landfall.

[Cpv17]

Ok, then what about major hurricanes like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charley, Opal, Michael, Elena, Camille, King, and Labor Day (1935)? Those are some examples of very notable US major hurricanes that did not really originate in the MDR, so I am not exactly sure how having a hostile MDR would necessarily reduce the risk of landfalling US MHs?

As I mentioned, since 1851 most (not all, but roughly three-fourths) of the MH to make landfall on the CONUS initially developed in the MDR, including:

• 1886 Indianola
• 1893 Sea Islands, Charleston
• 1898 Georgia
• 1899 San Ciriaco
• 1900/1915 Galveston
• 1917 Nueva Gerona
• 1918 Louisiana
• 1926 Miami
• 1928 San Felipe II / Okeechobee
• 1933 Cuba–Brownsville, Treasure Coast
• 1938 New England
• 1945 Homestead
• 1947 Fort Lauderdale
• 1949 Florida
• 1960 Donna
• 1965 Betsy
• 1989 Hugo
• 1992 Andrew
• 1996 Fran
• 2004 Charley,* Ivan
• 2017 Harvey, Irma

*Charley’s initial coordinates were actually in the westernmost MDR

Helene (1958), which did not make landfall yet produced MH conditions in Cape Fear, NC, also developed over the MDR.

So, yes, an active MDR would climatologically, on average, tend to increase the risk of MH landfalls on the CONUS, all other factors being equal.

Well, it's also statistically probable that out of the many waves you see from an active MDR, one of them will develop as a major and make landfall.

The MDR usually doesn’t even come to life till mid September and October. The trend over recent years has been systems stay weak till they get towards the western Caribbean or the Bahamas and then they explode. I’m more concerned about that area than the MDR. The MDR doesn’t interest me much because a lot of those storms go ots. Also, there’s homegrown storms that can give us way more of an impact than any wave moving off Africa.

[cycloneye]

As I mentioned, since 1851 most (not all, but roughly three-fourths) of the MH to make landfall on the CONUS initially developed in the MDR, including:

• 1886 Indianola
• 1893 Sea Islands, Charleston
• 1898 Georgia
• 1899 San Ciriaco
• 1900/1915 Galveston
• 1917 Nueva Gerona
• 1918 Louisiana
• 1926 Miami
• 1928 San Felipe II / Okeechobee
• 1933 Cuba–Brownsville, Treasure Coast
• 1938 New England
• 1945 Homestead
• 1947 Fort Lauderdale
• 1949 Florida
• 1960 Donna
• 1965 Betsy
• 1989 Hugo
• 1992 Andrew
• 1996 Fran
• 2004 Charley,* Ivan
• 2017 Harvey, Irma

*Charley’s initial coordinates were actually in the westernmost MDR

Helene (1958), which did not make landfall yet produced MH conditions in Cape Fear, NC, also developed over the MDR.

So, yes, an active MDR would climatologically, on average, tend to increase the risk of MH landfalls on the CONUS, all other factors being equal.

Well, it's also statistically probable that out of the many waves you see from an active MDR, one of them will develop as a major and make landfall.

The MDR usually doesn’t even come to life till mid September and October. The trend over recent years has been systems stay weak till they get towards the western Caribbean or the Bahamas and then they explode. I’m more concerned about that area than the MDR. The MDR doesn’t interest me much because a lot of those storms go ots. Also, there’s homegrown storms that can give us way more of an impact than any wave moving off Africa.

Earlier, by mid August MDR starts to jell.

[Shell Mound]

As I mentioned, since 1851 most (not all, but roughly three-fourths) of the MH to make landfall on the CONUS initially developed in the MDR, including:

• 1886 Indianola
• 1893 Sea Islands, Charleston
• 1898 Georgia
• 1899 San Ciriaco
• 1900/1915 Galveston
• 1917 Nueva Gerona
• 1918 Louisiana
• 1926 Miami
• 1928 San Felipe II / Okeechobee
• 1933 Cuba–Brownsville, Treasure Coast
• 1938 New England
• 1945 Homestead
• 1947 Fort Lauderdale
• 1949 Florida
• 1960 Donna
• 1965 Betsy
• 1989 Hugo
• 1992 Andrew
• 1996 Fran
• 2004 Charley,* Ivan
• 2017 Harvey, Irma

*Charley’s initial coordinates were actually in the westernmost MDR

Helene (1958), which did not make landfall yet produced MH conditions in Cape Fear, NC, also developed over the MDR.

So, yes, an active MDR would climatologically, on average, tend to increase the risk of MH landfalls on the CONUS, all other factors being equal.

Well, it's also statistically probable that out of the many waves you see from an active MDR, one of them will develop as a major and make landfall.

The MDR usually doesn’t even come to life till mid September and October. The trend over recent years has been systems stay weak till they get towards the western Caribbean or the Bahamas and then they explode. I’m more concerned about that area than the MDR. The MDR doesn’t interest me much because a lot of those storms go ots. Also, there’s homegrown storms that can give us way more of an impact than any wave moving off Africa.

Well, I respectfully agree to disagree. I merely made an observation that an active MDR tends to produce more MH landfalls on the CONUS than an inactive MDR. This is based on long-term climatology, going back to 1851. Even since 1900 most of the MH to strike the CONUS have developed first in the MDR. Also, it should not be overlooked that most of the legendary MH to strike the U.S. began in the MDR. Sure, there have been some exceptions (i.e., 1935 Labor Day and 1969 Camille), but on average most of the MH originated in the MDR. 1886 Indianola, 1893 Sea Islands, 1898 Georgia, 1899 San Ciriaco, 1900/1915 Galveston, 1926 Miami, 1928 Okeechobee, 1938 New England, 1960 Donna, 1965 Betsy, 1989 Hugo, 1992 Andrew, 2004 Charley/Ivan, and 2017 Harvey/Irma form quite a roster of “who’s who” in MH impacts. All of these initially developed in the MDR. I don’t know why it seems controversial to merely present the observation that, factually speaking, an inactive MDR tends to reduce the risk of the MH impact on the CONUS, while an active MDR tends to increase it. I am speaking of averages here; obviously, exceptions such as 2010 can and do occur, but on average MH landfalls and MDR activity tend to be positively correlated to each other. There is reason why the old adage “August, look out you must; / September, remember; / October, all over” applies to U.S. MH landfalls: because MDR-based activity peaks in late August and the first half of September, and most U.S. MH landfalls were associated with storms that developed in the MDR.

[toad strangler]

There is reason why the old adage “August, look out you must; / September, remember; / October, all over” applies to U.S. MH landfalls:.

Never heard of this saying and just in the last 16 years Wilma and Michael would like to have a word with whoever came up with that one.

[NotSparta]

There is reason why the old adage “August, look out you must; / September, remember; / October, all over” applies to U.S. MH landfalls:.

Never heard of this saying and just in the last 16 years Wilma and Michael would like to have a word with whoever came up with that one.

Zeta, too

[Steve]

The biggest indicator is the calendar. It’s May14th. We’re just over 2 weeks out from the “start” of the Atlantic season. Last year had so many brush by’s and close calls that it doesn’t seem like 6 months have passed since the last threat here (Zeta). 197 days.

[Category5Kaiju]

There is reason why the old adage “August, look out you must; / September, remember; / October, all over” applies to U.S. MH landfalls:.

Never heard of this saying and just in the last 16 years Wilma and Michael would like to have a word with whoever came up with that one.

Zeta, too

And Opal

[toad strangler]

There is reason why the old adage “August, look out you must; / September, remember; / October, all over” applies to U.S. MH landfalls:.

Never heard of this saying and just in the last 16 years Wilma and Michael would like to have a word with whoever came up with that one.

Zeta, too

Yes, my lord how did I forget Zeta! Too recent

[AnnularCane]

Never heard of this saying and just in the last 16 years Wilma and Michael would like to have a word with whoever came up with that one.

Zeta, too

Yes, my lord how did I forget Zeta! Too recent

It was an old saying of the British West Indies, I think. Should we add Lenny to the list?

[Iceresistance]

Zeta, too

Yes, my lord how did I forget Zeta! Too recent

It was an old saying of the British West Indies, I think. Should we add Lenny to the list?

Lenny was in November . . .

[Category5Kaiju]

Zeta, too

Yes, my lord how did I forget Zeta! Too recent

It was an old saying of the British West Indies, I think. Should we add Lenny to the list?

Eta and Iota...yes, they did not make landfall in the US or West Indies as a major, but it shows how November can still be a terrible month for Atlantic residents

[AnnularCane]

Yes, my lord how did I forget Zeta! Too recent

It was an old saying of the British West Indies, I think. Should we add Lenny to the list?

Lenny was in November . . .

That's right,the saying says all over by October.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Appears we're getting another period of weak trades in the Atlantic MDR in a few days. The last period was ineffective in boosting SSTs, so we'll need to see if this upcoming spell will help warm things up before the official start of the hurricane season.