2022 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Yeah recent model runs almost guarantees the season will end up in above average territory. Models showing the NS count coming up to 16 by the end of September.

[Yellow Evan]

I don’t trust GFS with genesis past 5-7 days especially when it’s been inconsistent past 94E/Lester in terms of which systems develop.

[Yellow Evan]

South of Central America and Southeastern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form over the far eastern portion of
the eastern North Pacific basin early next week. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development
while the system moves west-northwestward near or offshore the coast
of southern Mexico through mid-week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the
southern coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves
generally west-northwestward off the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[weeniepatrol]

I'm old enough to remember the abundant posts here and on other forums about how hyperactive the EPAC is. How can the EPAC be so hyperactive during a La Nina? Wow, this is just so crazy.

EPac ACE has now fallen below normal and major hurricane days is at 31% of climo, well in line with a moderate La Nina

[Kingarabian]

Number wise yeah this season isn't going to be anything like 2014-16/2018. It'll probably be better than 2017 at this point. This is still impressive considering the strength of this La Nina.

Way better than the poor seasons this basin had from 2010-2013.

[dexterlabio]

I'm old enough to remember the abundant posts here and on other forums about how hyperactive the EPAC is. How can the EPAC be so hyperactive during a La Nina? Wow, this is just so crazy.

EPac ACE has now fallen below normal and major hurricane days is at 31% of climo, well in line with a moderate La Nina

https://i.imgur.com/daNoHk3.png

It’s incorrect to say that the EPAC activity so far this year is “hyperactive” but rather “exceeds expectations” given that ATL was the one expected to get really active with a moderate La Niña in 2022 but EPAC still managed to surpass the ATL…well, so far..

[Astromanía]

I'm old enough to remember the abundant posts here and on other forums about how hyperactive the EPAC is. How can the EPAC be so hyperactive during a La Nina? Wow, this is just so crazy.

EPac ACE has now fallen below normal and major hurricane days is at 31% of climo, well in line with a moderate La Nina

https://i.imgur.com/daNoHk3.png

And the ATL it's going to end hyperactive as expected at the beginning or what? I doubt it's going to end active at all

[weeniepatrol]

I'm old enough to remember the abundant posts here and on other forums about how hyperactive the EPAC is. How can the EPAC be so hyperactive during a La Nina? Wow, this is just so crazy.

EPac ACE has now fallen below normal and major hurricane days is at 31% of climo, well in line with a moderate La Nina

https://i.imgur.com/daNoHk3.png

And the ATL it's going to end hyperactive as expected at the beginning or what? I doubt it's going to end active at all

Since this is the EPAC thread. I was talking about the EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

This is the EPAC equivalent of 2015 in the Atlantic.

[Kingarabian]

This is the EPAC equivalent of 2015 in the Atlantic.

14 NS and 8 hurricanes and counting, compared to 11NS and 4 hurricanes????

[Foxfires]

This is the EPAC equivalent of 2015 in the Atlantic.

14 NS and 8 hurricanes and counting, compared to 11NS and 4 hurricanes????

Well the EPAC is more active than the Atlantic, although I'm not sure if this is a good comparison regardless, especially since 2015 ACE was below normal and EPAC ACE is near normal so far. Anyway, in any case I don't think storm count is a fair comparison across basins for an equivalent unless those basins have very similar activity.

Also just mentioning that this year's EPAC currently has as many majors as Atl 2015, so the season seems to be more quantity oriented.

[Kingarabian]

Excellent agreement between the Euro and the GFS on another hurricane in about 5 days.

[Astromanía]

2022 Epac it's now ahead of 2019, 2020 and 2021 hurricane seasons with still two months to go and an active major hurricane, interesting

[Yellow Evan]

South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a disorganized area
of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development during
the next several days. The low is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward during the next couple of days, but could turn
northwestward toward the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Kingarabian]

Models do show a chance for a couple more systems between now and the end of October. I wonder if we'll get to 20 NS.

[Category5Kaiju]

This, overall, seems to be a very quantity-oriented season

[Kingarabian]

Despite the three Nina's, we've hit 100 ACE and 20 NS with seemingly ease.

[cycloneye]

The Julia remnants.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Off the coast of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Tropical Storm Julia is located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
and is forecast to cross portions of Central America Sunday and
Sunday night. Although the system may not survive passage over
Central America, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of the remaining disturbance if it emerges over the far
eastern Pacific basin in a couple of days. More information on
Tropical Storm Julia can be found on the web at hurricanes.gov.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Julia are issued under
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Julia are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Forecaster Latto

[LarryWx]

The Julia remnants.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Off the coast of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Tropical Storm Julia is located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
and is forecast to cross portions of Central America Sunday and
Sunday night. Although the system may not survive passage over
Central America, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of the remaining disturbance if it emerges over the far
eastern Pacific basin in a couple of days. More information on
Tropical Storm Julia can be found on the web at hurricanes.gov.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Julia are issued under
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Julia are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Forecaster Latto

https://i.imgur.com/hYuPWzK.jpg

The 12Z ICON and UKMET bring Julia almost to the S tip of Baja Cal. at the ends of their runs as an intact TC!

[Kingarabian]

The Julia remnants.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Off the coast of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Tropical Storm Julia is located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
and is forecast to cross portions of Central America Sunday and
Sunday night. Although the system may not survive passage over
Central America, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of the remaining disturbance if it emerges over the far
eastern Pacific basin in a couple of days. More information on
Tropical Storm Julia can be found on the web at hurricanes.gov.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Julia are issued under
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Julia are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Forecaster Latto

https://i.imgur.com/hYuPWzK.jpg

The 12Z ICON and UKMET bring Julia almost to the S tip of Baja Cal. at the ends of their runs as an intact TC!

Second crossover in a season? Probably unprecedented.