Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[Stratton23]

12z GEFS ensembles support a stall, with some looping over the NE gulf and then going up the east coast , and then some stalling, going back south and then turning west towards lousiana and even texas lol

[NDG]

https://i.postimg.cc/T2kHr28m/bnbnb.gif

One thing that the Euro has been correct with days ago, this TW start blooming with convection as soon as it started approaching the Lesser Antilles while the GFS took some time to adjust.

[NDG]

GFS remains the only model that predicts a closed low center in the Gulf. It's 12z run looks quite odd. Let's hope something like that doesn't materialize. I'm still thinking east of Florida is more likely.

Not odd at all if indeed tracks further west and the shortwave trough leaves it behind then getting influenced by the building ridge coming across the central US.

[chaser1]

Here's an Irony. Typically, the Greater Antilles are what often disrupt existing or developing storms and influence their tracks often protecting Florida. Presently, these same islands might just be the hinderance to earlier development possibly resulting in a significant impact to Florida or the N. GOM coastline.

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

Good post from Dr Levi Cowan.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1818692018652258394

[hipshot]

12z GEFS ensembles support a stall, with some looping over the NE gulf and then going up the east coast , and then some stalling, going back south and then turning west towards lousiana and even texas lol

Wow, that would be really wild, I know it has happened before, at least the loop around and back through again behavior, but I haven't
seen it before since I've been following this stuff!!

[TomballEd]

A lot of social media posts mentioning land interaction hindering development, or "breaking up the disturbance". Usually however, it is the land interaction that can act as a focusing mechanism to disturb the structure of the large envelop and focus it. Someone mentioned similarities to Elena; I am getting similar vibes. Elena formed from an African wave hindered by SAL. The wave crossed the big Greater Antilles islands, and a depression formed near the western tip of Cuba, and actually strengthened into a TS while over Cuba. Where the low level center actually forms is really a toss up, so the next couple of days are going to be interesting to watch.

TS Dorian moving through the L. Antilles had an MLC well N of the LLC. One of the islands disrupted the LLC enough that a new LLC could develop below the MLC, and Dorian strengthen rapidly. If the MLC and LLC had been competing to be the primary center, intensification would have been delayed.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro seems to being a 12z GFS'ish stall in nearly the same area as the GFS. Very weak though. Then floats S across the central FL peninsula and out into the Atlantic where it strengthens moving NE

[weeniepatrol]

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

There continues to be some model support for my preferred wishcast: the wave splutters on without significant development and nothing much comes from this at all.

[toad strangler]

That's 4 plus days of tropical rains for much of the Florida peninsula on the 12z GFS and the 12z Euro

[Ubuntwo]

There continues to be some model support for my preferred wishcast: the wave splutters on without significant development and nothing much comes from this at all.

If the wave energy tracks directly up the spine of Florida and stalls over land rather than near the coast or offshore, that is still a distinct possibility.

[Stratton23]

And to no ones surprise, the euro caves to the GFS, showing a stall in the NE gulf now

[SouthFLTropics]

With all of the scenarios that the models keep throwing out, I sure do hope this gets tagged soon. It will be nice to start seeing the hurricane model output to see what they are thinking.

[SFLcane]

Copy and paste NHC 2PM TWO.

[cycloneye]

Copy and paste NHC 2PM TWO.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas:
A large tropical wave located over the Lesser Antilles continues to
produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
While development in the short-term is not anticipated as the system
moves over portions of the Greater Antilles, environmental
conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for
development as the system moves generally west-northwestward towards
the Bahamas and Cuba. A tropical depression could form this weekend
or early next week when the system is in the vicinity of the Greater
Antilles, Bahamas, or near Florida. Interests in the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Landsea

[3090]

Latest Euro caving to GFS big time with a weak 1011 low in the southern/SE GOM off the NW end of Cuba. Interesting.

[wzrgirl1]

Copy and paste NHC 2PM TWO.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas:
A large tropical wave located over the Lesser Antilles continues to
produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
While development in the short-term is not anticipated as the system
moves over portions of the Greater Antilles, environmental
conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for
development as the system moves generally west-northwestward towards
the Bahamas and Cuba. A tropical depression could form this weekend
or early next week when the system is in the vicinity of the Greater
Antilles, Bahamas, or near Florida. Interests in the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Landsea

Has the "development cone" changed since this morning?

[LarryWx]

Is there any model that doesn’t at least get into the Gulf now? Euro, GFS, ICON, UKMET, CMC, and JMA all do with at least GFS, UKMET, and latest available JMA never going back into the Atlantic. Today’s 12Z JMA past 72 hours still not out yet.