Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[DunedinDave]

12z eps..

https://i.postimg.cc/65Y1dYDJ/bbb.jpg

So basically everyone from Bermuda to Nicaragua be on alert.

[chris_fit]

Hope I'm wrong but Charley and Ian vibes with this one. Very similar initial position and guidance.

[Category5Kaiju]

I disagree as the high latitude ITCZ, prevalence of SAL, and reversed upper level winds off Africa the basin was struggling with are more in line with an exaggerated August climo.

eh, conus pattern i meant. Both GFS/EURO want to remove that East Coast ridge all together.

Gotcha. A trough dipping down into the Gulf/SE region isn't too out of season for early Sept... Irma, Dorian, Idalia just for a few recent cases were all tugged north around this time of year. Now early August as with Charley? Nuts.

Ivan in 2004 too was a classic example of a powerful September Caribbean system being tugged northward. Outside of that, there are indeed many other examples of recurving September storms (Igor, Floyd, etc.)

[Ivanhater]

This is looking very ominous for the Gulf Coast

[Teban54]

This is looking very ominous for the Gulf Coast

Yeah, at this point the US Gulf Coast probably has to hope that the system doesn't develop due to taking forever to sort out its internal dynamics, or developing too late and not entering the Gulf (though such a scenario will still be damaging outside of CONUS). But if the 12z models suite showed us anything, it's that the system can take its sweet time until Western Caribbean and still have a high ceiling.

[cycloneye]

Around 51W there is more convection than the 47W turning but is dmin.

[TomballEd]

This is looking very ominous for the Gulf Coast

Ensemble mid level heights suggest Central and Eastern Gulf at highest risk. Storms that move a bit faster than the ensemble means and comes in a bit S could still menace Texas and Mexico, but this looks like SE Louisiana and points E.

Huge caveat, 8 or 12 days away the ensembles may have shifted one way or the other, or ECUSA or W. GOMEX could wind up in danger.

[Ubuntwo]

Around 51W there is more convection than the 47W turning but is dmin.

https://i.imgur.com/BM7wNrd.gif

This convection has spawned a little area of mid level/500mb spin. GFS and the Euro caught it on the latest runs. Is expected to persist overnight and die out going into Sunday. If convection does not move to the east, late development/no development becomes more likely.

[Iceresistance]

A 906 mb member has been discovered on the 12z EPS related to this TW.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SooQ9.png

[Kohlecane]

A 906 mb member has been discovered on the 12z EPS related to this TW.

One of the ensembles has a whopping 909 Cat 5 slamming the Yucatán in 204h…

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1158173473861025862/1279154729800433766/eps_slp_qpf_e10_atlantic_204.png?ex=66d3692d&is=66d217ad&hm=75bf4b247bbdb602fde5bade7232d53f2b6f6c8f998fcf14d32192132efc4ad4&

I believe this might be your member

[AnnularCane]

Lots of 505 ERRORS today on S2K.

Server overload with the latest models? Lol

I haven't had any errors but I did notice it was a bit slow earlier. Maybe the server hasn't seen this level of activity in a while?

[DunedinDave]

Hope I'm wrong but Charley and Ian vibes with this one. Very similar initial position and guidance.

Same. I feel like this one may move a little more west than those two based on the latest and euro and GfS but still too early to tell.

[ConvergenceZone]

What does it usually take to get an invest going out of a tropical wave? Just curious.

[Hammy]

What does it usually take to get an invest going out of a tropical wave? Just curious.

Usually they'd tag them pretty early but now it seems like they need to reach 60% in the 5-7 day before they're tagged

[hipshot]

What does it usually take to get an invest going out of a tropical wave? Just curious.

Usually they'd tag them pretty early but now it seems like they need to reach 60% in the 5-7 day before they're tagged

I've noticed the same thing.

[SouthFLTropics]

It would appear that the 18z GFS is going to go to the Eastern GOM and possibly slide up and over the peninsula. The system developing off the eastern seaboard plays a huge role in eroding the ridge.

[toad strangler]

Looks like another classic 18z Happy Hour GFS OP ramping up
Now at the 9 day mark just S of western Cuba.

[SouthFLTropics]

It would appear that the 18z GFS is going to go to the Eastern GOM and possibly slide up and over the peninsula. The system developing off the eastern seaboard plays a huge role in eroding the ridge.

Then again, I could be wrong. It looks like it moves out and the ridge starts filling back in. Very complicated setup with multiple players on the board.

[toad strangler]

It would appear that the 18z GFS is going to go to the Eastern GOM and possibly slide up and over the peninsula. The system developing off the eastern seaboard plays a huge role in eroding the ridge.

Then again, I could be wrong. It looks like it moves out and the ridge starts filling back in. Very complicated setup with multiple players on the board.

18z GFS OP hits the very NE tip of the Yucatán similar to the 12z Euro OP. Difference is it keep sliding west instead of turning north. This is past 240 hours now, So take with a grain of salt. Take the whole run with the grain of salt for that matter being there is no cohesive system yet. Just commenting on verbatim Run of this individual model.

[Frank P]

18z EURO looks way west at h258 will it repeat the 06z? actually more west then 06z