2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[WeatherBoy2000]

I'm not convinced of anything. Every year it seems many use the 'lessons' of last year, which don't really count for much. Wave breaking is 2 years out now and fading from the lexicon, maybe it will make a comeback in August.

And here it is:

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1947820868014375255

[cycloneye]

Looks like a boring peak of season if Eric Webb is right.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1947809336102945138

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I'm not convinced of anything. Every year it seems many use the 'lessons' of last year, which don't really count for much. Wave breaking is 2 years out now and fading from the lexicon, maybe it will make a comeback in August.

And here it is:

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1947820868014375255

Looks like a boring peak of season if Eric Webb is right.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1947809336102945138

Lots of bearishness to go around among the pros...I'm honestly debating whether or not I should rethink my outlook.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's honestly quite interesting how radically different certain perspectives and outlooks are for this season (Webb's very bearish and USTropics's very bullish, for instance).

Personally, I don't see anything that really stands out of the ordinary. I could very well be wrong and not be seeing something that will ultimately matter in the end. But we've already had 3 named storms. The MDR seems to be warming up. And we're already seeing a more convectively active Africa, with an MDR AOI that (while it didn't form into anything) still was somewhat noteworthy enough that it became an invest, let alone what looks to be even more waves exiting Africa in the upcoming days.

If one ought to bring up "wavebreaking" as an issue for this year, then I politely would challenge him or her to explain these down below.






Bottomline is, there's no doubt that conditions are unfavorable right now for robust activity in the Atlantic. But, I think the important question to ask is, is what we're currently seeing just a symptom of the usual hostile July/early August climo, or is it a sign of something more seriously "wrong" that could last weeks, if not months, longer and really impede Atlantic hurricane action? Occam's razor would say the former, but you be the judge.

[LarryWx]

Fwiw, Joe Bastardi is outrightly predicting above avg activity Aug 5-20.

[WeatherBoy2000]

It's honestly quite interesting how radically different certain perspectives and outlooks are for this season (Webb's very bearish and USTropics's very bullish, for instance).

Personally, I don't see anything that really stands out of the ordinary. I could very well be wrong and not be seeing something that will ultimately matter in the end. But we've already had 3 named storms. The MDR seems to be warming up. And we're already seeing a more convectively active Africa, with an MDR AOI that (while it didn't form into anything) still was somewhat noteworthy enough that it became an invest, let alone what looks to be even more waves exiting Africa in the upcoming days.

If one ought to bring up "wavebreaking" as an issue for this year, then I politely would challenge him or her to explain these down below.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2025/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20250721.png

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2022/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20220722.png


Bottomline is, there's no doubt that conditions are unfavorable right now for robust activity in the Atlantic. But, I think the important question to ask is, is what we're currently seeing just a symptom of the usual hostile July/early August climo, or is it a sign of something more seriously "wrong" that could last weeks, if not months, longer and really impede Atlantic hurricane action? Occam's razor would say the former, but you be the judge.

Atm there's not much to indicate that this upcoming wave breaking period is going to be as prolonged or as suppressive as 2022's. Despite ssts, this is the pattern that's being predicted by models for the last leg of July into August.

[NotSparta]

I'm not convinced of anything. Every year it seems many use the 'lessons' of last year, which don't really count for much. Wave breaking is 2 years out now and fading from the lexicon, maybe it will make a comeback in August.

And here it is:

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1947820868014375255

Thought it would be funny to bring the term back. There is indeed a fairly well-defined ACWB anyway.

I'm not convinced of anything. Every year it seems many use the 'lessons' of last year, which don't really count for much. Wave breaking is 2 years out now and fading from the lexicon, maybe it will make a comeback in August.

And here it is:

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1947820868014375255

Looks like a boring peak of season if Eric Webb is right.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1947809336102945138

Lots of bearishness to go around among the pros...I'm honestly debating whether or not I should rethink my outlook.

There isn't a whole lot of bearishness over the season in general. It's more that August probably won't produce, but the late season looks like it will. I'd imagine an above average season, but kind of a 2024 style weak first half of peak season

[cycloneye]

Tyler has some analogs for this season comparable with the sst profile. 2000, 2001, 2013, and 2022. Yes, among them, that infamous 2013.

 https://x.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1948050639784734862

[USTropics]

It's honestly quite interesting how radically different certain perspectives and outlooks are for this season (Webb's very bearish and USTropics's very bullish, for instance).

Personally, I don't see anything that really stands out of the ordinary. I could very well be wrong and not be seeing something that will ultimately matter in the end. But we've already had 3 named storms. The MDR seems to be warming up. And we're already seeing a more convectively active Africa, with an MDR AOI that (while it didn't form into anything) still was somewhat noteworthy enough that it became an invest, let alone what looks to be even more waves exiting Africa in the upcoming days.

If one ought to bring up "wavebreaking" as an issue for this year, then I politely would challenge him or her to explain these down below.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2025/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20250721.png

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2022/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20220722.png


Bottomline is, there's no doubt that conditions are unfavorable right now for robust activity in the Atlantic. But, I think the important question to ask is, is what we're currently seeing just a symptom of the usual hostile July/early August climo, or is it a sign of something more seriously "wrong" that could last weeks, if not months, longer and really impede Atlantic hurricane action? Occam's razor would say the former, but you be the judge.

I don't want to speak for Eric, but looking at his tweets that were posted above, it seems he was referring to the beginning-mid part of August only (probably in response to Michael Lowry/others discussing the MJO finally propagating into the Atlantic next month). I know for sure Alex was trolling you guys and giving you a 2-3 week forecast for the subtropical Atlantic



In all seriousness, when looking at June and July SSTA data, I look for these main things:
1) What is the ENSO state currently? If we're in weak -> moderate La Nina territory, this is one of the biggest indicators we'll have a busier season.
2) What's the Canary Current looking like? If there is warmth propagating southward in June/July, this is a decent indicator for a busier season.
3) What is the SSTA configuration in the subtropics of the Pacific? +SSTA indicates a busier Atlantic season through teleconnections.

Some things that are giving me pause for this season:
1) Subtropics were really cooking in April-June off the East Coast, near record levels in the dataset I use going back to 1948.
2) MDR and eastern Atlantic are having to play catch up (especially when looking at the 1990-2020 climo period).
3) Canary Current warmth should already be further south in latitude at this point (late July)

Applying these to a statistical model I'm working on for the first 3 weeks of July, I get these analogs (ranked in order of correlation score):
1950
1955
1973
2001
2003

SSTA plots:







Breaking down the analog tracks by month:

June + July



August



September



October



November

[WeatherBoy2000]

Euro indicates a slightly above normal late August:

 https://x.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1948133194274148633

[cycloneye]

Cooler Gulf of Guinea signals a not busy season says Eric Webb. Read his thread at X.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1947978351345619207



 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1947978419725103313



 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1947983558330736872

[cycloneye]

It's honestly quite interesting how radically different certain perspectives and outlooks are for this season (Webb's very bearish and USTropics's very bullish, for instance).

Personally, I don't see anything that really stands out of the ordinary. I could very well be wrong and not be seeing something that will ultimately matter in the end. But we've already had 3 named storms. The MDR seems to be warming up. And we're already seeing a more convectively active Africa, with an MDR AOI that (while it didn't form into anything) still was somewhat noteworthy enough that it became an invest, let alone what looks to be even more waves exiting Africa in the upcoming days.

If one ought to bring up "wavebreaking" as an issue for this year, then I politely would challenge him or her to explain these down below.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2025/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20250721.png

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2022/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20220722.png


Bottomline is, there's no doubt that conditions are unfavorable right now for robust activity in the Atlantic. But, I think the important question to ask is, is what we're currently seeing just a symptom of the usual hostile July/early August climo, or is it a sign of something more seriously "wrong" that could last weeks, if not months, longer and really impede Atlantic hurricane action? Occam's razor would say the former, but you be the judge.

I don't want to speak for Eric, but looking at his tweets that were posted above, it seems he was referring to the beginning-mid part of August only (probably in response to Michael Lowry/others discussing the MJO finally propagating into the Atlantic next month). I know for sure Alex was trolling you guys and giving you a 2-3 week forecast for the subtropical Atlantic

https://i.imgur.com/I2Pcsew.png

In all seriousness, when looking at June and July SSTA data, I look for these main things:
1) What is the ENSO state currently? If we're in weak -> moderate La Nina territory, this is one of the biggest indicators we'll have a busier season.
2) What's the Canary Current looking like? If there is warmth propagating southward in June/July, this is a decent indicator for a busier season.
3) What is the SSTA configuration in the subtropics of the Pacific? +SSTA indicates a busier Atlantic season through teleconnections.

Some things that are giving me pause for this season:
1) Subtropics were really cooking in April-June off the East Coast, near record levels in the dataset I use going back to 1948.
2) MDR and eastern Atlantic are having to play catch up (especially when looking at the 1990-2020 climo period).
3) Canary Current warmth should already be further south in latitude at this point (late July)

Applying these to a statistical model I'm working on for the first 3 weeks of July, I get these analogs (ranked in order of correlation score):
1950
1955
1973
2001
2003

SSTA plots:
https://i.imgur.com/CBltKf2.png
https://i.imgur.com/Y04ZBwP.png
https://i.imgur.com/mcUdtZc.png
https://i.imgur.com/W0GEkPx.png
https://i.imgur.com/TMbglim.png
https://i.imgur.com/i3Hssmm.png

Breaking down the analog tracks by month:

June + July
https://i.imgur.com/aX2HJF3.png
https://i.imgur.com/NicyuaW.png

August
https://i.imgur.com/PE4xDwl.png
https://i.imgur.com/2P2pVZO.png

September
https://i.imgur.com/1Hz9Hw2.png
https://i.imgur.com/JdMXISE.png

October
https://i.imgur.com/JRsFDFx.png
https://i.imgur.com/5hdpMxe.png

November
https://i.imgur.com/YUwbDiT.png
https://i.imgur.com/XvtXPAJ.png

As always, another excellent analysis. I ask you if you have considered the Gulf of Guinea an important factor on how the season may turn out to be? I ask because of Webbs post.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1948348237116498123

[USTropics]

As always, another excellent analysis. I ask you if you have considered the Gulf of Guinea an important factor on how the season may turn out to be? I ask because of Webbs post.

That's a good question, and the short answer is no I wouldn't use it as a leading indicator in July. Here are the first 3 weeks of July for the top 10 most active Atlantic years (1948-current). I've moved the central longitude to 0 so we can see more of these features near Africa. We can see the main signal for all these years is still:

1) ENSO region is -SSTA
2) Canary current region in the NE Atlantic is +SSTA
3) Kuroshio current region in the NW Pacific is +SSTA












So 1/2 the years the Gulf of Guinea was -SSTA or neutral the first 3 weeks of July (1950, 1961, 2004, 2005, 2020). I do think this becomes more of an issue if it is not just a sub seasonal signature and more longterm ( The climate models are a bit split on how much this will warm by September, with the CANSIPS being aggressive +SSTA, NMME -SSTA, and CFS neutral). In my post here I outlined in one of the images how the warm, moist flow from the south (over the Gulf of Guinea) interacts with the dry, Saharan air from the north. That moisture flow from the south is critical peak season (especially for the MDR), so if we have air being transported over cooler waters, the air temperature is cooler, and therefore the air cannot hold as much water vapor (i.e., through Clausius–Clapeyron relation, PWAT lessens, which these waves need while moving over Africa). To what degree though? 2005 definitely didn't have an issue overcoming a cooler Gulf of Guinea in July if other parameters downstream are a go.

[cycloneye]

Good discussion from Andrew Moore about thr dry air, wavebreaking, orientation of the Azores high and more.

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1948418515624427627



 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1948419331190079935



 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1948417805533020633



 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1948421243532640723

[Woofde]

Cooler Gulf of Guinea signals a not busy season says Eric Webb. Read his thread at X.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1947978351345619207



 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1947978419725103313



 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1947983558330736872

I honestly don't believe it could be a significant detractor. Of the last 5 hyperactive seasons (2005, 2010, 2017, 2020, 2024), not one had a particularly warm Gulf of Guinea. The two most active seasons ever (2005, 2020) were both pretty chilly when peak season rolled through.

Of the three major climate models only the NMME keeps a cold Gulf as well. The sentiment I get is that people are looking for reasons this season should be slow, but the major indicators (AMO & ENSO) are firmly supportive of an above average season.

[chaser1]

It's honestly quite interesting how radically different certain perspectives and outlooks are for this season (Webb's very bearish and USTropics's very bullish, for instance).

Personally, I don't see anything that really stands out of the ordinary. I could very well be wrong and not be seeing something that will ultimately matter in the end. But we've already had 3 named storms. The MDR seems to be warming up. And we're already seeing a more convectively active Africa, with an MDR AOI that (while it didn't form into anything) still was somewhat noteworthy enough that it became an invest, let alone what looks to be even more waves exiting Africa in the upcoming days.

If one ought to bring up "wavebreaking" as an issue for this year, then I politely would challenge him or her to explain these down below.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2025/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20250721.png

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2022/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20220722.png


Bottomline is, there's no doubt that conditions are unfavorable right now for robust activity in the Atlantic. But, I think the important question to ask is, is what we're currently seeing just a symptom of the usual hostile July/early August climo, or is it a sign of something more seriously "wrong" that could last weeks, if not months, longer and really impede Atlantic hurricane action? Occam's razor would say the former, but you be the judge.

I don't want to speak for Eric, but looking at his tweets that were posted above, it seems he was referring to the beginning-mid part of August only (probably in response to Michael Lowry/others discussing the MJO finally propagating into the Atlantic next month). I know for sure Alex was trolling you guys and giving you a 2-3 week forecast for the subtropical Atlantic

https://i.imgur.com/I2Pcsew.png

In all seriousness, when looking at June and July SSTA data, I look for these main things:
1) What is the ENSO state currently? If we're in weak -> moderate La Nina territory, this is one of the biggest indicators we'll have a busier season.
2) What's the Canary Current looking like? If there is warmth propagating southward in June/July, this is a decent indicator for a busier season.
3) What is the SSTA configuration in the subtropics of the Pacific? +SSTA indicates a busier Atlantic season through teleconnections.

Some things that are giving me pause for this season:
1) Subtropics were really cooking in April-June off the East Coast, near record levels in the dataset I use going back to 1948.
2) MDR and eastern Atlantic are having to play catch up (especially when looking at the 1990-2020 climo period).
3) Canary Current warmth should already be further south in latitude at this point (late July)

Applying these to a statistical model I'm working on for the first 3 weeks of July, I get these analogs (ranked in order of correlation score):
1950
1955
1973
2001
2003

SSTA plots:
https://i.imgur.com/CBltKf2.png
https://i.imgur.com/Y04ZBwP.png
https://i.imgur.com/mcUdtZc.png
https://i.imgur.com/W0GEkPx.png
https://i.imgur.com/TMbglim.png
https://i.imgur.com/i3Hssmm.png

Breaking down the analog tracks by month:

June + July
https://i.imgur.com/aX2HJF3.png
https://i.imgur.com/NicyuaW.png

August
https://i.imgur.com/PE4xDwl.png
https://i.imgur.com/2P2pVZO.png

September
https://i.imgur.com/1Hz9Hw2.png
https://i.imgur.com/JdMXISE.png

October
https://i.imgur.com/JRsFDFx.png
https://i.imgur.com/5hdpMxe.png

November
https://i.imgur.com/YUwbDiT.png
https://i.imgur.com/XvtXPAJ.png

1973? Interesting. Nope, 2025 would seem "hyper-active" in comparison. Think I'll stick with 2013 (though 2025 has now fallen "behind" that year for the moment). Atlantic MDR SST's ARE warming though so it's just a matter of time, right?

[LarryWx]

It's honestly quite interesting how radically different certain perspectives and outlooks are for this season (Webb's very bearish and USTropics's very bullish, for instance).

Personally, I don't see anything that really stands out of the ordinary. I could very well be wrong and not be seeing something that will ultimately matter in the end. But we've already had 3 named storms. The MDR seems to be warming up. And we're already seeing a more convectively active Africa, with an MDR AOI that (while it didn't form into anything) still was somewhat noteworthy enough that it became an invest, let alone what looks to be even more waves exiting Africa in the upcoming days.

If one ought to bring up "wavebreaking" as an issue for this year, then I politely would challenge him or her to explain these down below.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2025/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20250721.png

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2022/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20220722.png


Bottomline is, there's no doubt that conditions are unfavorable right now for robust activity in the Atlantic. But, I think the important question to ask is, is what we're currently seeing just a symptom of the usual hostile July/early August climo, or is it a sign of something more seriously "wrong" that could last weeks, if not months, longer and really impede Atlantic hurricane action? Occam's razor would say the former, but you be the judge.

I don't want to speak for Eric, but looking at his tweets that were posted above, it seems he was referring to the beginning-mid part of August only (probably in response to Michael Lowry/others discussing the MJO finally propagating into the Atlantic next month). I know for sure Alex was trolling you guys and giving you a 2-3 week forecast for the subtropical Atlantic

https://i.imgur.com/I2Pcsew.png

In all seriousness, when looking at June and July SSTA data, I look for these main things:
1) What is the ENSO state currently? If we're in weak -> moderate La Nina territory, this is one of the biggest indicators we'll have a busier season.
2) What's the Canary Current looking like? If there is warmth propagating southward in June/July, this is a decent indicator for a busier season.
3) What is the SSTA configuration in the subtropics of the Pacific? +SSTA indicates a busier Atlantic season through teleconnections.

Some things that are giving me pause for this season:
1) Subtropics were really cooking in April-June off the East Coast, near record levels in the dataset I use going back to 1948.
2) MDR and eastern Atlantic are having to play catch up (especially when looking at the 1990-2020 climo period).
3) Canary Current warmth should already be further south in latitude at this point (late July)

Applying these to a statistical model I'm working on for the first 3 weeks of July, I get these analogs (ranked in order of correlation score):
1950
1955
1973
2001
2003

SSTA plots:
https://i.imgur.com/CBltKf2.png
https://i.imgur.com/Y04ZBwP.png
https://i.imgur.com/mcUdtZc.png
https://i.imgur.com/W0GEkPx.png
https://i.imgur.com/TMbglim.png
https://i.imgur.com/i3Hssmm.png

Breaking down the analog tracks by month:

June + July
https://i.imgur.com/aX2HJF3.png
https://i.imgur.com/NicyuaW.png

August
https://i.imgur.com/PE4xDwl.png
https://i.imgur.com/2P2pVZO.png

September
https://i.imgur.com/1Hz9Hw2.png
https://i.imgur.com/JdMXISE.png

October
https://i.imgur.com/JRsFDFx.png
https://i.imgur.com/5hdpMxe.png

November
https://i.imgur.com/YUwbDiT.png
https://i.imgur.com/XvtXPAJ.png

1973? Interesting. Nope, 2025 would seem "hyper-active" in comparison. Think I'll stick with 2013 (though 2025 has now fallen "behind" that year for the moment). Atlantic MDR SST's ARE warming though so it's just a matter of time, right?

Atlantic MDR stability has been dominant I assume due largely to the warmer subtropics than tropics. After all, the main function of TCs is to bring warmth from the tropics to higher latitudes.

Does tropical stability tend to be stable? Is the rest of this season likely going to be dominated by similar levels of stability or does the early season not have much predictive power?

Does anyone have any links to tables with measures of stability for each month going back many years? If so, I’d love to study it to try to help me get a feel for whether or not stability levels tend to remain stable throughout a season. Maybe yes or maybe no. I’d love to research historical data to get a better idea as I love analyzing data to try to find trends.

[Category5Kaiju]

Whoa, where did King TUTT go?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Every year around the 1st to the 15th of August when everyone is quite certain that the season is bust, I am always looking at the coast of Africa to see when those winds blowing the dust across the Atlantic start to migrate north, and if you look right now, it is starting to happen. Those huge plumes of dust are aimed more to the north than they were at the beginning of the month. I expect that will continue to progress. That is generally when the MDR "wakes up"