98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

markymark8 · #441 Postby **markymark8** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:03 pm

Unless this thing sits here for days it can't strengthen into a 5 if it has to pass over Cuba and hit southern Florida. If the track takes it up the west coast of Florida then it is possible to be close or as strong as Charley. If it does decide to stall out for a long period of time it could also upwell cooler water and weaken it a little. Everything will have to pan out like the track of charley to really get cranking and not make a southern Florida landfall. I don't see this storm having a chance for a Cat 5 unless it stays off the coast and moves all the way up the west coast of Florida and hits the panhandle or does a track similar to Katrina or Rita.

thermos · #442 Postby **thermos** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:03 pm

ivanhater wrote:
stormandan28 wrote:Betty Davis

well if she said it would then it must be true

She is a storm genius 8-)

WindRunner · #443 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:05 pm

I can't get the text for it, but the NRL backup site shows a TCFA for 98L.

#444 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:06 pm

thermos wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
stormandan28 wrote:Betty Davis

well if she said it would then it must be true

She is a storm genius

haaaaaaaaaaa

#445 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:08 pm

WindRunner wrote:I can't get the text for it, but the NRL backup site shows a TCFA for 98L.

That was posted at this thread long ago by me.

WindRunner · #446 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:
WindRunner wrote:I can't get the text for it, but the NRL backup site shows a TCFA for 98L.

That was posted at this thread long ago by me.

OOPS! Sorry about that, I really haven't been following this thread very closely today.

MiamiensisWx · #447 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:30 pm

The system is now looking rather raggedy and not very healthy on infra-red or visible imagery. This might mean a possible, at least temporarily, TD 19-type scenario.

Here is the system...

It has pretty good outflow; however, convection has gotten less organized. Also, shear has increased (see below), potentially weakening the system... shear is now starting to approach 15KT to 20KT...

In addition, there is a large amount of dry air to the north of the system, likely contributing to less organization (disorganization).

Looks like the storm may have been, for now, overhyped slightly.

truballer#1 · #448 Postby **truballer#1** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:33 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Looks like the storm may have been, for now, overhyped slightly.

anything can happen!

jkt21787 · #449 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:34 pm

Wilma Cancel :lol:

MiamiensisWx · #450 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:36 pm

truballer#1 wrote:anything can happen!

True... however, shear is increasing. Looks like the environment was previously favorable, but is now getting unfavorable.

wxmann_91 · #451 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:37 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:It has pretty good outflow; however, convection has gotten less organized. Also, shear has increased (see below), potentially weakening the system... shear is now starting to approach 15KT to 20KT...

Center is south of Jamaica at this time, where shear is actually decreasing.

Thunder44 · #452 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:39 pm

Convection is increasing now. It's not unusual for convection to decrease during the day.

MiamiensisWx · #453 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:39 pm

waxmann_91 wrote:Center is south of Jamaica at this time, where shear is actually decreasing.

True... however, some of (parts of) the main banding convection is within the increasing shear.

#454 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:40 pm

i recall the same discussion about rita.."to much dry air"..OPPS :lol:

truballer#1 · #455 Postby **truballer#1** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:40 pm

actually shear is decreasing and shear supposed to be decreasing the next several days

JamesFromMaine2 · #456 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:40 pm

Its during the day and normally the convection dies down during the day! Wait until tonight and convection will refire! Looks like theres already a new blow up of convection forming! IMO we already have a depression since they have found west winds so that means theres a LLC. most storms don't go from nothing to Tropical storm so just give it time! Just b/c convection looks to be dieing down doesn't mean anything in the long run right now!

markymark8 · #457 Postby **markymark8** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:40 pm

Starting to look like it might get sheared apart. It looked alot better earlier. looks like it has a chance to become a weak Cat 1 in time.

Scorpion · #458 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:41 pm

markymark8 wrote:Starting to look like it might get sheared apart. It looked alot better earlier. looks like it has a chance to become a weak Cat 1 in time.

I think we have had enough of your incessant trolling. I recall you also said the season was dead several times.

x-y-no · #459 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:45 pm

LOL! No sense jumping at every little fluctuation.

This thing doesn't look too bad at all. Tons better than, say, TD 12 did 36 hours before it made landfall in Florda as a Cat 1 Katrina.

(Not that I'm saying this will be another Katrina)

#460 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:45 pm

Guessing is not this forum objective, lets wait for the NHC to comment on the current situation and possible future.

98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Re: Betty Davis

Re: Betty Davis

Who is online