91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[Rainband]

I have to close tonight. I will be back 2am or so to see what has changed. Thanks again Rockyman for that link.

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 241831
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060624 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060624 1800 060625 0600 060625 1800 060626 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.6N 77.4W 28.0N 79.0W 28.7N 80.5W 29.9N 81.6W
BAMM 27.6N 77.4W 28.0N 79.0W 28.7N 80.7W 29.6N 82.1W
A98E 27.6N 77.4W 27.9N 78.9W 28.3N 80.3W 29.3N 81.1W
LBAR 27.6N 77.4W 28.0N 78.8W 29.1N 80.1W 30.7N 81.0W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060626 1800 060627 1800 060628 1800 060629 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.9N 82.1W 39.6N 80.1W 49.2N 74.2W 53.0N 57.5W
BAMM 31.0N 83.3W 35.9N 83.3W 41.9N 80.1W 47.9N 74.7W
A98E 30.9N 81.2W 37.1N 79.3W 45.5N 70.5W 48.1N 48.2W
LBAR 33.1N 81.4W 41.4N 78.6W 50.8N 66.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 44KTS 58KTS 65KTS 63KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.6N LONCUR = 77.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 27.3N LONM12 = 75.8W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 27.1N LONM24 = 74.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

I wonder what will happen when it gets over the Gulf stream current?

I will watch this area closely tonight and Sun. night. As it moves over warmer waters, sometimes you see a rapid blow up convection during the late night and early AM hours. Let's see if this happens.

[gatorcane]

You can see what the Gulf stream did to help convection fire between SE Florida and the Bahamas last night - when the low gets over the Gulf stream I think we could see a blow up of convection...

[mvtrucking]

Quikscat: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

[ronjon]

Looks like the tropical moisture is firing off some severe weather.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
314 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

FLC105-241930-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-060624T1930Z/
POLK-
314 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR WESTERN POLK COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...

AT 314 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A FUNNEL
CLOUD NEAR THE GROUND NEAR LAKELAND HIGHLANDS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
THE TORNADO MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
HIGHLAND CITY.
LAKELAND HIGHLANDS.
FOUNTAIN HEIGHTS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! ACT QUICKLY. GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER
YOUR HEAD WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SIGHTED. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING IMMEDIATELY...AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2799 8175 2811 8190 2795 8206 2777 8192

[shortwave]

with the mid/upper low basically sitting a bit off center and moving in tandem with the lower vorticy, upper level winds are beating down the persistence and developement of the convergence bands.

[wxman57]

"He's dead, Jim!"

[boca]

I said that this morning and people jumped down my throat so I'm glad you said it.

[drezee]

"He's dead, Jim!"

HA HA HA! Trekie...nice downpour here in East Orlando

I guess it is about that time for my main course...what's behind door #91

Code: Select all

No crows were harmed in the making of this cartoon.

[rockyman]

Question...what would/could cause this upper low to fill in, weaken, or move away?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

[boca]

Maybe the interaction with the trough along the east coast.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah its dead as a door step. I would put all my energy into 92L.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like the tropical moisture is firing off some severe weather.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
314 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

FLC105-241930-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-060624T1930Z/
POLK-
314 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR WESTERN POLK COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...

AT 314 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A FUNNEL
CLOUD NEAR THE GROUND NEAR LAKELAND HIGHLANDS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
THE TORNADO MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
HIGHLAND CITY.
LAKELAND HIGHLANDS.
FOUNTAIN HEIGHTS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! ACT QUICKLY. GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER
YOUR HEAD WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SIGHTED. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING IMMEDIATELY...AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2799 8175 2811 8190 2795 8206 2777 8192

good instability this afternoon on the penninsula, doesnt take a deep low to get things going over florida in the summertime..

[jlauderdal]

I said that this morning and people jumped down my throat so I'm glad you said it.

start taking names and calling them out,lol

[drezee]

JB is still saying not to count it out...could there be a formation near 30N and 76W?

I will just bring up the point that we turned out back on Alberto overnight and he had another idea...it still has to make it past the Gulf Stream...

[ronjon]

More severe weather spawned by the moisture from 91L. I was mowing the lawn here in Hernando County and got chased inside by a strong storm about 30 minutes ago. Torrential downpours, lots of lightning, and gusts to 40 mph.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC049-242030-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0026.060624T1959Z-060624T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
359 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 359 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...OVER
WAUCHULA...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...
ZOLFO SPRINGS.
ONA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR HIGHER...AND
HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

[jdray]

This is definitely something to watch. Winds across South Florida have veered to the west today indicating a low level circulation is getting going. Winds were NE yesterday.

Notice all South Florida locations are indicating pressures are falling

NAPLES MOSUNNY 87 69 54 W13 29.93F
W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 88 71 57 N8 29.92F
FT LAUDER-EXEC CLOUDY 85 69 58 W9 29.91F
FT LAUDERDALE CLOUDY 85 68 56 W9 29.91F
POMPANO BEACH CLOUDY 84 71 65 W10 29.92F
PEMBROKE PINES CLOUDY 85 70 60 N9 29.94F
OPA LOCKA CLOUDY 86 69 56 W10 29.93F
MIAMI CLOUDY 86 68 54 VRB5 29.92F
MIAMI BEACH N/A 85 73 68 CALM 29.90F
WEST KENDALL CLOUDY 87 69 54 N6 29.91F

My barometer has fallen from 30.00 to 29.94 as well since noon.

[drezee]

I think the 30N 76W LLC is taking over now...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

Has turned NW and pressure is falling faster than all the others (in the last hour that is)

[gatorcane]

Also, we are finally starting to see some convection blowing up near the center now - take a look at the last few frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Overall I think 91L is starting to slowly get its act together. Look closely at that sat pic above and the visible and you will that the dry air is being phased out with more moisture. Lots of low clouds are suddenly forming near and around the center.