Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[JonathanBelles]

posible cushion to the fall of daniel?

[Cyclenall]

posible cushion to the fall of daniel?

Yes. If Daniel continued west after reaching Hawaii, he might have a chance at staying alive until the WPAC which is very rare. Hurricane John of 1994 is the most famous of doing this and the only one I can think of. I haven't looked into more TC's doing this.

[Lori]

When was the last time a system hit Hawaii from the ESE?

Hurricane Iniki 1992

Hurricane Dot 1959

[HURAKAN]

posible cushion to the fall of daniel?

Yes. If Daniel continued west after reaching Hawaii, he might have a chance at staying alive until the WPAC which is very rare. Hurricane John of 1994 is the most famous of doing this and the only one I can think of. I haven't looked into more TC's doing this.

Dora in 1999.

[Epsilon_Fan]

if he can hold together for the next 36 hrs I think he may well take a shot at Hawaii... although I can't see him being more than a Cat1

[Brent]

AS DANIEL APPROACHES
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN.
CONSEQUENTLY...DANIEL COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN FIVE DAYS.

BTW... Iniki was well south of Hawaii and then turned due northward and hit Kauai, so it technically didn't come in from the East like this is forecast to.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... /track.gif

[Derek Ortt]

Hawaii is much like Miami in that it usually gets hit from the south, when the first guess would be that it would most likely be hit from the east

[P.K.]

Daniel is just crossing to the Central North Pacific so the next advisory will be from RSMC Honolulu.

WTPZ45 KNHC 240831
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2006

THE EYE DISAPPEARED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AROUND 0100 UTC.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A SYMMETRICAL PRESENTATION WITH
FAIRLY COLD CENTRAL CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 77 TO 90 KT AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF DANIEL DO NOT
CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND HOVER AROUND 25 DEG
C...ALTHOUGH THE WATERS DO WARM A LITTLE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER A SOMEWHAT MORE
STABLE AIR MASS AND LOWER MID-TROPOSPHERIC HUMIDITIES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO...THE EVOLUTION OF VERTICAL SHEAR ON DANIEL IS
AN IMPORTANT FACTOR. CURRENTLY...UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND WEAK
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL ARE SPREADING
WESTWARD WITH THE HURRICANE...BUT THERE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS 200 MB WIND FORECAST
INDICATES THAT...OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD IN TANDEM
WITH DANIEL AND THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY
FORECASTING UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROPICAL FLOWS. HOWEVER IF THE GFS
SCENARIO WERE TO VERIFY...VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD REMAIN LOW AND THE
MAIN FACTORS THAT WOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OF DANIEL WILL BE
THERMODYNAMIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DANIEL COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN 4-5 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...285/13. DYNAMICAL
MODELS GENERALLY CALL FOR A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS SHOWS
DANIEL MAKING LITTLE WESTWARD PROGRESS AFTER CROSSING 140W...AND
ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN 4-5 DAYS. THIS SOLUTION
CANNOT BE CONSIDERED REALISTIC AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY
THAT DANIEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW IN
THE VICINITY OF 30N150W MIGHT BE A FACTOR IN THE FUTURE PATH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS FEATURE COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD
MOTION A FEW DAYS FROM NOW. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ENOUGH OF
A RIDGE...ALBEIT A NARROW ONE...WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN THE LOW AND
DANIEL SO THE TRACK WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS.

DANIEL HAS ALMOST REACHED 140W LONGITUDE...AND IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE BASIN BY 1200 UTC TODAY. THEREFORE
THE NEXT...1500 UTC...ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. FORECAST/ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HNLTCMCP1. PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPA31 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HNLTCPCP1. TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER HNLTCDCP1.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 16.1N 139.8W 85 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 141.2W 80 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 16.9N 142.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 17.3N 144.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 17.7N 146.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 154.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 158.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Jim Cantore]

Ok, just a reference, the last Major threat to Hawaii was Jimena in 2003 but it passed to the south, before that it was ironicly DANIEL in 2000 but it fell apart and drifted north. Hopefully something simular happens here

best case scenario: Nothing happens
worst case scenario: Cat 5 into Oahu
most likely: Nobody knows, too far out

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Daniel has crossed 140w,which means is no longer at the Eastern Pacific basin but now is in the Central Pacific.NHC no longer issues advisories.Now the responsability goes to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center,and their first advisory issued will be the 15:00z one.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/

[Derek Ortt]

Jimena was the last serious threat, threatened Hawaii as a cat 2

[HURAKAN]

Jimena was the last serious threat, threatened Hawaii as a cat 2

To illustrate you statement!!!

[HURAKAN]

Hurricane Jimena (HAWAII'S OVERVIEW)

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/ ... jimena.php

[Derek Ortt]

6 hourly recon starting Wednesday at 18Z

Also, don't want that wave in the Atl doing anything, G-IV seems to be heading to Hawaii

[Thunder44]

Statement as of 5:00 am HST on July 24, 2006


...Hurricane Daniel enters the central Pacific...

at 500 am HST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Daniel was located
near latitude 16.3 north...longitude 140.8 west or about 970 miles
east-southeast of Hilo...Hawaii and about 1170 miles east-southeast
of Honolulu...Hawaii.

Daniel is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph. Daniel is
expected to move slightly slower later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts. Some
weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90
miles.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.
All interests in and around the Hawaiian islands should monitor the
progress of Daniel this week.

Repeating the 500 am HST position...16.3 N...140.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...90
mph. Minimum central pressure...980 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center at 1100 am HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston

[cycloneye]

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 26/1800Z
NEAR 18.0N 148W ON HURRICANE DANIEL.
3. REMARKS: POSSIBLE G-IV FLIGHT FOR 27/0000Z.
CDL


Recon to Daniel,starting at 26/18:00z..

[Jim Cantore]

This is a VERY small Hurricane, if Hawaii is going to get any real effects this will have to pass very close or hit direct.

[P.K.]

WTPA41 PHFO 241510
TCDCP1

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006
500 AM HST MON JUL 24 2006

BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 0901 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS
RECEIVED FROM THE NRL AND FNMOC WEB SITES...AND IMAGERY FROM THE
GOES-WEST SATELLITE...ALL AGENCIES HAVE AGREED THAT DANIEL CROSSED
140W LONGITUDE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC PRIOR TO 1200 UTC.
UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HURRICANE EYE SEVERAL HOURS
AGO...THE EXACT POSITION OF THE HURRICANE IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285 DEG AT 12 KT.

THE FORECAST TRACK FOR DANIEL IS AN UPDATE OF THE ORIGINAL 0600 UTC
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...NHC...PROJECTION. SLIGHT MODIFICATION
OF THE TRACK WAS MADE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON DAYS 4 AND 5.
THIS TRACK CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS...GUNS...GUNA AND CONU. HOWEVER...THE TRACK IS BEING KEPT
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THESE CONSENSUS MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE UKMET AND NOGAPS TRACK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE
BEST SKILL SO FAR FOR THE TRACK OF DANIEL ACCORDING TO NHC.

THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS RANGING FROM 3.5 AT
JTWC TO 5.0 AT SAB AND AFWA. CPHC INDICATED A T NUMBER OF 4.5. THE
PREVIOUS WEAKENING TREND MAY HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY...SINCE
THERE WAS A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DROPPED SLIGHTLY TO 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHARTS INDICATE 25 DEGREE C SURFACE WATER
ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF DANIEL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE WATERS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE VICINITY
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF DANIEL REMAINS RELATIVELY
LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 9 KT FROM THE EAST
ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL 0-HOUR COMPUTES. THE UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLIES SOUTH OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL ARE PROJECTED TO
SPREAD WESTWARD WITH THE HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE UW/CIMSS WEB SITE
INDICATES THERE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE AS
DANIEL APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE PREVIOUS NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS THEREFORE BEING MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. THIS FORECAST
WOULD BRING DANIEL NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A RELATIVELY STRONG
TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS WEEK.

THE RADII OF 12 FOOT SEAS WERE DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE PACKAGE
DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF DANIEL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.3N 140.8W 80 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 16.6N 142.2W 75 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.1N 143.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 17.5N 145.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 17.9N 147.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 18.7N 151.2W 50 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 19.6N 154.9W 50 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 21.3N 159.7W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[HURAKAN]

HOUSTON, WE HAVE PROBLEM.

[JonathanBelles]

lol