99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Grease Monkey]

I will take my chances and continue napping.

[perk]

Wxman57 don't you think the NHC have enough to worry about without having to quantify the chance of a system forming.

[wxman57]

Here's this afternoon's quikSCAT pass. In my professional opinion, it shows absolutely NO LLC. Actually, it shows no circulation of any kind as of about 21Z:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 1_99ds.png

That's because you aren't looking at the QuikSCAT ambiguities. They clearly show the closed circulation centered at 10.2N 47.5W at 21Z. Never rely on the retrieved vectors to determine the existence, or lack of existence, of a closed circulation in a tropical wave.

Did you look at the image above?

[cheezyWXguy]

Is it a joke? theres nothing there...it either completely missed or you made an error copying the link

[Rainband]

I have some good advice. Listen to the Pros. They are pros for a reason. They will teach us a lot if we are willing to learn. I appreciate everything they do for S2K. Thanks Guys

[JonathanBelles]

25 kts is a td is it not?

[WindRunner]

Is it a joke? theres nothing there...it either completely missed or you made an error copying the link

Yeah, I'm not seeing anything either, wxman57. Just a blank quickscat pass generated at 21:42Z.

[cheezyWXguy]

that doesnt make it one...it needs a closed circulation(which it may have) and a large area of deep convection

[brunota2003]

Is it a joke? theres nothing there...it either completely missed or you made an error copying the link

Yeah, I'm not seeing anything either, wxman57. Just a blank quickscat pass generated at 21:42Z.

I third that...it tis be completely blank...

[Dean4Storms]

25 kts is a td is it not?

In a closed circulation yes, thats the problem here, there is no evidence of a closed circulation at the surface of the wind field.

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS tries to close off this wave I believe and heads it toward the northern islands. Interesting.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[abajan]

25 kts is a td is it not?

Not necessarily. We once had a strong tropical wave pass over Barbados with winds in excess of 50 mph.

There needs to be a closed circulation.

[gatorcane]

I think 99L is nearly at the point of being placed in the Atlantic graveyard of waves that never made it. I honestly can't believe how much attention this wave is still getting.



As Brent says: next please

[Thunder44]

I have some good advice. Listen to the Pros. They are pros for a reason. They will teach us a lot if we are willing to learn. I appreciate everything they do for S2K. Thanks Guys

Yeah, but that doesn't mean they are always right and don't make mistakes. Some of us have learned somethings too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just to remind everyone from the 8:05pm discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 8N47W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW/WAVE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 46W-49W. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

There IS a closed low.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is it a joke? theres nothing there...it either completely missed or you made an error copying the link

Yeah, I'm not seeing anything either, wxman57. Just a blank quickscat pass generated at 21:42Z.

I third that...it tis be completely blank...

I think it was a joke.

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok you people write of a storm at each and every move that it makes. Why don't we just observe it and it's conditions and try to determine what it's going to do rather than passing judgment everytime a new sat pic comes in. This is not directed at any one in particular but, people are saying lets move on to the next one already and 99L still has a chance to develop in the next few days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB continues to say that he thinks this IS a depression. And this was the definition he gave for a depression:

A tropical depression is designated when the first appearance of a lowered pressure and organized circulation in the center of the thunderstorm complex occurs.

He thinks this will turn more NW in the short term and then back W in the future. Just something to think about.

[cycloneye]

JB continues to say that he thinks this IS a depression. And this was the definition he gave for a depression:

A tropical depression is designated when the first appearance of a lowered pressure and organized circulation in the center of the thunderstorm complex occurs.

He thinks this will turn more NW in the short term and then back W in the future. Just something to think about.

Already it has turned WNW per 00:00z BAM models that I posted at page 22.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Still needs more convection over the center if 99L wants to be a TD.