Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[sevenleft]

Code: Select all

   DATE/TIME     LAT     LON    CLASSIFICATION        STORM
  08/1145 UTC    12.6N   46.7W    T1.5/1.5              91L
  07/1745 UTC    12.2N   41.9W    T1.0/1.0              91L
  07/1145 UTC    12.2N   40.5W    T1.0/1.0              91L
  07/0545 UTC    11.7N   38.2W    TOO WEAK              91L
  06/1745 UTC    11.7N   36.0W    T1.0/1.5              91L
  06/1145 UTC    12.0N   33.1W    T1.5/1.5              91L


These are the estimates issued so far on 91L
What determines at what intervals, or if at all, these are done? Are they simply arbitrary? I know sometimes they are also done at 23:45.

Every 6 hours.

[bvigal]

But they haven't been done every 6 hours, hence my question.

[sevenleft]

Lazy? No discernable surface low? Not sure. But when they are done its in those 6 hour increments.

[webke]

It looks like the coldest cloud tops are dying off, can this system still regenerate with cooler cloud tops as long as the moisture is there?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Buck]

It's certainly looking alot better than it was a few hours ago. Can't see much in the way of a strong circulation though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[Derek Ortt]

it apepars that it was just a convective flare up, nothing more

[Buck]

But if it sustains that (doesn't look great for that right now)... it strengthens its chances of developing later on.

[Bailey1777]

Derek are you saying there is no LLC associated with the convection?

[ConvergenceZone]

don't ya think you are discounting it too quickly Derek? True some of the coldest cloud tops have warmed a bit, but that doesn't mean the entire convective burst will dissipate. That even happens with the strongest of tropical systems doesn't it?

Now if in 5 hours, the convection is all but gone and no new convection to replace it, THEN perhaps you are correct, but we aren't psychics here

[Derek Ortt]

the LLC likely dissipated (though one of my officemates does not agree)

[ConvergenceZone]

Personally, I think if the convection comes back stronger than the time it did before, then perhaps we have something here. This latest burst was healthier and stronger than the previous one. Now if this one dies out, we'll have to see if the next one will be stronger and hold together longer than this one.

[ConvergenceZone]

the LLC likely dissipated (though one of my officemates does not agree)

but if it dissipated, wouldn't the latest TWO have reflected that, as opposed to saying that it COULD develop into a depression later tonight? (I'm speaking of the LLC, not the convection)

[Bailey1777]

I think its still there but concealed by the SW Quad of the convection.

[StormWarning1]

But they haven't been done every 6 hours, hence my question.

If there was not a T number for that time period(i.e. 2345) then it means there was nothing to classify.
If it is listed as 'to weak' then it means something is there in terms of convection but does not meet the qualifications for a T number.

[Nimbus]

We won't know till morning for sure. If the convection stays my guess is it will be a depression at the 11AM update.

[Bailey1777]

Buoy 41040

Wind-ENE
Wind Speed-17.5
Gust-21.4
Pressure-29.89

[Derek Ortt]

I believe the TWO was not correct

I did see an MLC, but any surface circulation would need to redevleop. If it does, it probably would be just south of the convection (if it persists)

[StormWarning1]

the LLC likely dissipated (though one of my officemates does not agree)

but if it dissipated, wouldn't the latest TWO have reflected that, as opposed to saying that it COULD develop into a depression later tonight? (I'm speaking of the LLC, not the convection)

They use to do that. A few years ago they got burned by a couple of systems that spun up to a tropical storm, de-generated to a open wave then re generated the next day. So, now they are slower to kill off a system that has fallen apart (i.e. Chris) and slower to upgrade weak systems out in the open Atlantic that have a questionable future.

[Bailey1777]

What's you gut on this system Derek if you were forcasting it as you see it and it's future?

[brunota2003]

Is it just me or does the NRL no longer have Invest 91L? the main site...