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Derek Ortt wrote:SHIPS has about 15KT of shear over it. It's just that the other parameters are so favorable
Derek Ortt wrote:the idea of no development once in the E Caribbean wont hold water this time. If conditions are favorable, as they were with Dennis and will be wiht this, this can develop, even if it is just a wave when it enters
We have seen quite a few storms in recent years develop in the E Carib
recmod wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:the idea of no development once in the E Caribbean wont hold water this time. If conditions are favorable, as they were with Dennis and will be wiht this, this can develop, even if it is just a wave when it enters
We have seen quite a few storms in recent years develop in the E Carib
Since 2000, the following hurricanes found the Eastern Caribbean to be anything but "the graveyard of storms":
Hurricane Iris in 2001 formed into a depression just as the system was entering the Eastern Caribbean
Hurricane Isidore in 2002 also became a depression in the extreme southeastern Caribbean
Hurricane Charley in 2004 also became a depression as the system was entering the Eastern Caribbean
Hurricane Jeanne in 2004, while reaching tropical depression stage just before entering the Caribbean, strengthened into a tropical storm while traversing the Eastern Caribbean
Hurricane Emily in 2005 strengthened significantly as the system moved into the Eastern Caribbean, jumping from a 50 knot tropical storm into an 80 knot hurricane
--Lou
recmod wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:the idea of no development once in the E Caribbean wont hold water this time. If conditions are favorable, as they were with Dennis and will be wiht this, this can develop, even if it is just a wave when it enters
We have seen quite a few storms in recent years develop in the E Carib
Since 2000, the following hurricanes found the Eastern Caribbean to be anything but "the graveyard of storms":
Hurricane Iris in 2001 formed into a depression just as the system was entering the Eastern Caribbean
Hurricane Isidore in 2002 also became a depression in the extreme southeastern Caribbean
Hurricane Charley in 2004 also became a depression as the system was entering the Eastern Caribbean
Hurricane Jeanne in 2004, while reaching tropical depression stage just before entering the Caribbean, strengthened into a tropical storm while traversing the Eastern Caribbean
Hurricane Emily in 2005 strengthened significantly as the system moved into the Eastern Caribbean, jumping from a 50 knot tropical storm into an 80 knot hurricane
--Lou
TSmith274 wrote:For what it's worth, Dan Millham, a veteran meteorologist with the NBC affiliate in New Orleans just predicted that we'll have a hurricane in the GOM somewhere between Cuba and the Yucatan. He's not an alarmist, so I was suprised that he made a graphic for this thing already. His personal graphic has a cat 1 dead center between Cuba and the Yucatan. Don't remember the timeframe. Just wanted to pass it along.
EDIT: This was on Channel 6's late show 6 On Your Side Live. Comes on after the regular news broadcast. Today was "Weather Wednesdays".
Stormcenter wrote:TSmith274 wrote:For what it's worth, Dan Millham, a veteran meteorologist with the NBC affiliate in New Orleans just predicted that we'll have a hurricane in the GOM somewhere between Cuba and the Yucatan. He's not an alarmist, so I was suprised that he made a graphic for this thing already. His personal graphic has a cat 1 dead center between Cuba and the Yucatan. Don't remember the timeframe. Just wanted to pass it along.
EDIT: This was on Channel 6's late show 6 On Your Side Live. Comes on after the regular news broadcast. Today was "Weather Wednesdays".
I'm sorry but I find it amazing that predictions are being made like that and we don't even have a TD yet. I heard the same type of hype with Chris and we all know what happened there. Yeah I know every storm is different but come on we are talking over a week out here.
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:I'm sorry but I find it amazing that predictions are being made like that and we don't even have a TD yet. I heard the same type of hype with Chris and we all know what happened there. Yeah I know every storm is different but come on we are talking over a week out here.
Vortex wrote:It's not a surprise that the models indicate a more wnw/nw movement during Ernestos trek across the carribean. Most guidance I've analyzed during the day/evening indicate a general weakness along the east coast in 4-6 days. The overall synoptic environment in 3-5 days indicates a more amplitude pattern along the east coast with weak ridging at best. This set-up will become crucial in determing what area comes under the gun. In addition, some guidance is also indicating multiple short waves late this weekend which would further erode heights to the north of the storm when it enters the western carribean. All these factors will become critical deterning where Ernesto ends up.
In terms of intensity, it's likely we will be dealing with a major cane in the western carribean early next week. Favorable atmosheric conditions, high oceanci heat content, and the time of year all spell the perfect recipe for a significant hurricane in the NW carribean in 4-5 days. Anyone from Texas to the Florida Keys should realy begin monitoring this situation.
teal61 wrote:CalmBeforeStorm wrote:I'm sorry but I find it amazing that predictions are being made like that and we don't even have a TD yet. I heard the same type of hype with Chris and we all know what happened there. Yeah I know every storm is different but come on we are talking over a week out here.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg
I'm not sure it's not a TD already.
Cyclenall wrote:skysummit wrote:Bob Breck in NOLA said it shouldn't be anything to worry about because it'll soon be encountering lots of shear. I tell ya....that boy will never learn.
If he really said that which I doubt he did, then he wouldn't be on TV.
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