Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[rnbaida]

we should get an advisory by 10:45

[Acral]

The GFDL seems to drag it right across almost the entire length of Cuba, and I suspect that would weaken it before emerging into the GoM. The question is, would such a track weaken it enough to dissapate? At this very early point I am thinking NOPE. Weaken then re-intensify, methinks.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am not really seeing the trend mentioned. Look at the time those models were run! Some were run as long ago as 8am this morning! At this point, I think the Mets are a more reliable source.

[rockyman]

That's the whole point...the older models were off track...By the way, the "Mets" are not some unified force who speak with a single voice...unless, of course, you are referring to the Mets who are saying just what certain people want to hear

[Praxus]

Wow what are the odds that almost exactly one year after katrina, we're looking a another potentially powerful hurricane landfalling in the gulf so close to the anniversary.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Yeah, you know what is crazy??? I was driving to work today (I work in Houma) and people were already boarding up their windows! The storm is not even in the gulf yet! People are freaking out this early. But, I am a little nervous about this system. I live in Terrebonne Parish and it flooded really bad from Rita which hit 200 miles away.

[jawdrop]
Wow! That's so early!!!!

[Josephine96]

Lets just pray this storm is nowhere near like a Katrina

[6SpeedTA95]

Wow what are the odds that almost exactly one year after katrina, we're looking a another potentially powerful hurricane landfalling in the gulf so close to the anniversary.

It'll be interesting to see how this bears out. Some of the models are showing a strong system 4 and 5 days from now and given its location and projected path this could be a significant storm by sunday.

[Acral]

Wow what are the odds that almost exactly one year after katrina, we're looking a another potentially powerful hurricane landfalling in the gulf so close to the anniversary.

Crappy in that there is that potential.

I love the fish storms, but the GoMers always seem to get somebody. But, since the since seems bound and determined to visit the Gulf, lotsa watching to be done (and possibly packing, storing, running, et al)

[Bailey1777]

No but the mets on here are saying look West young man. Things will change of course but that is the majority opinion of the pro's here right now.

[skysummit]

I am not really seeing the trend mentioned. Look at the time those models were run! Some were as late as 8pm last night! At this point, I think the Mets are a more reliable source.

Which models? Every model I've seen so far has been the latest release.

[6SpeedTA95]

The GFDL seems to drag it right across almost the entire length of Cuba, and I suspect that would weaken it before emerging into the GoM. The question is, would such a track weaken it enough to dissapate? At this very early point I am thinking NOPE. Weaken then re-intensify, methinks.

Does it weaken it enough to go extratropical though? give the fact that there'd still be ample moisture being pulled into the storm that would definately weaken it but it could re emerge into the gulf and ramp back up to TS or hurricane strength.

[hicksta]

hmm, i think no matter what i cant change where the storm is going so im just gonna chill for 2 days then il get back to this site. I pray i aint gotta do another rita.

[ROCK]

That's the whole point...the older models were off track...By the way, the "Mets" are not some unified force who speak with a single voice...unless, of course, you are referring to the Mets who are saying just what certain people want to hear

not sure what your implying with that remark. Mets contribute a great deal especially in here. Mets look at the models as we do. So stating that they tell certain people what they want to hear is off base, IMO....

[NONAME]

I wouldn't be suprise if it took a Dennis Type track threw the Carribean.

[Stormcenter]

Wow what are the odds that almost exactly one year after katrina, we're looking a another potentially powerful hurricane landfalling in the gulf so close to the anniversary.

I wouldn't even compare this to Katrina, night and day.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I hope that the Bermuda High holds strong and no
troughs come and the high keeps this away from
Florida...
I am not wishing this storm on anyone else...but I just
hope that the High will keep whatever becomes of TD #5
away from Florida.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am not really seeing the trend mentioned. Look at the time those models were run! Some were run as long ago as 8am this morning! At this point, I think the Mets are a more reliable source.

Which models? Every model I've seen so far has been the latest release.

The times are on the upper right side of this image:

One thing that concerns me (as a central Gomer)...check out this model map and notice how the system is consistently north of each model run (first NOGAPS, then GFS, then GFDL)

[Praxus]

Refreshed the IR http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg and it looks like the cloud tops are getting cooler...at least I'm pretty sure I see a couple of pixels of brown there hehe..

[skysummit]

I am not really seeing the trend mentioned. Look at the time those models were run! Some were as late as 8am this morning! At this point, I think the Mets are a more reliable source.

Which models? Every model I've seen so far has been the latest release.

The times are on the upper right side of this image:

One thing that concerns me (as a central Gomer)...check out this model map and notice how the system is consistently north of each model run (first NOGAPS, then GFS, then GFDL)

Yea...they're all from today. Also, the 00z tropical models have moved more inline with these. I'm not sure what they're seeing though.