TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

[miamicanes177]

If it hasn't been classified by the professionals yet, don't title your threads like that. False advertising.

18Z models initialized it as a TS...NRL is calling it Ernesto...Recon confirms tropical storm force winds and a closed LLC. It is not false advertising.

[Steve H.]

Ernesto is moving basically at 275 but will adjust to 280/285 during the next 36 hours. The ULL well to his WNW is moving west at a decent pace, and the shear should slowly abate. You can see the ULL clearly on the W' Atlantic WV loop. Eventually, when the ULL is west of Ernesto, he should take a turn to 290/300 degrees. Where he goes after 72 hours is highly dependent on future evolution of ridging to the north and the longevity and strenght of the ridge. This motion is what the GFDL is basically showing, though I haven't seen the 18z run yet. I don't yet buy the models showing him hitting the Yucatan, but right now its looking like he a GOMer.

[P.K.]

If it hasn't been classified by the professionals yet, don't title your threads like that. False advertising.

BTW...i'm editing the title back to TD # until official word.

It is down as TS Ernesto in the ICAO.

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060825/2100Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: ERNESTO
NR: 005
PSN: N1418 W06736
MOV: WNW 14KT
C: 1004HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 260600 N1500 W06942
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 261200 N1530 W07057
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 261800 N1600 W07212
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 040KT
NXT MSG: 20060826/0300Z

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

99.0 percent of the time when NRL/Models have a name on the system thats what its going to be. I only seen it not to once in that was for a pacific system last year.

[Brent]

If it hasn't been classified by the professionals yet, don't title your threads like that. False advertising.

BTW...i'm editing the title back to TD # until official word.

OK... that's fine. I just know in the past thread titles have gotten changed on the same information before the NHC officially said anything.

[Derek Ortt]

it has been classified though

NHC coordinated that change with the NRL. The upgrades are made at synoptic time and are not released until advisory time

[CajunMama]

ok p.k. ... i looked around and didn't see any official name change and i was just going by what s2k policy asks for. I guess i was waiting for the official announcement.

[Mac]

Sanibel, while I respect your observations : heart is simply unscientific and should not be used. Even if it means much more typing. A storm actually is the sum of its environmental conditions. The exact same storm in a different environment will not be the exact same storm. I am not well versed in meteorology, but there is no such thing as a storm 'fighting shear'.

Sometimes shear enhances convection, which is one reason I think this is a popular view.

Essential to human communication is a phenomena known as "figurative language." One form of "figurative language" is "anthropomorphism", which is the attribution of human qualities and emotions to non-human things.

I understood what Sanibel meant. Saying that a storm has "heart" is short hand for saying "this storm has continued to exist in the face of adverse conditions, and we should not discount the possiblity that, for reasons currently unknown to us, it will continue to exist."

Personally, I'd rather say that the storm has "heart." I think an English teacher would agree.

Absaloopa! I personally don't understand why many people get so caught up in langauge/terminology hang-ups. My mantra has always been, "Words only have so much power as we ascribe to them." Saying that a hurricane "has heart" is simply saying it is tenacious...persisent...that it just doesn't want to die. I mean, if we're not supposed to say "it has heart," then I suppose we also shouldn't say "the shear is going to kill this this." After all, how can you kill something that is not living to begin with???

[tallbunch]

i believe this storm is going to Mexico (and my record is 8 out of ten right)

[wjs3]

and how can a surface cyclone fujiwarah around an upper level cyclone

Answer:

They can't. Fujiwhara is between two vortices at the same level. It's fluid dynamics in action.

The upper cyclone can change the mean steering flow and make it look like a Fujiwhara--but a classic Fujiwhara where two vortices rotate around a common center has to be two vortices at the same level.

Did I pass your quiz?

[CronkPSU]

have there been any Fujiwhara's in the Atlantic or Carribean?

[P.K.]

ok p.k. ... i looked around and didn't see any official name change and i was just going by what s2k policy asks for. I guess i was waiting for the official announcement.

The ICAO has been out for about 30 minutes but when the name changes on the NRL page that usually means the NHC have upgraded, as well as changing to TS status in the SHIPs output.

[Brent]

It's really official now...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...

[mempho]

These boards get hilarious at times like this. Everyone in Texas sees it going west, however, people in Florida sees it going NW.

Please...This thing is going to tighten up to a mile wide and go up the Mississippi River and make landfall in Memphis as a Category 3. Sheesh! Are you people looking at the same storm that I am?

[Wx_Warrior]

Tallbunch..In poker terms, You going all in on the prediction???

If so, I'll give you my bank!

[canegrl04]

Finally we can stop calling it TD 5 .

[CronkPSU]

These boards get hilarious at times like this. Everyone in Texas sees it going west, however, people in Florida sees it going NW.

Please...This thing is going to tighten up to a mile wide and go up the Mississippi River and make landfall in Memphis as a Category 3. Sheesh! Are you people looking at the same storm that I am?

[Brent]

75 kt at 120 hours... 24.5 N 88.0 W

[WxGuy1]

ok p.k. ... i looked around and didn't see any official name change and i was just going by what s2k policy asks for. I guess i was waiting for the official announcement.

Upgrading the system before an official NHC announcement is certainly a source for confusion... We've probably had 5 posts in the past 3 pages that show this confusion -- "is it Ernesto or TD5?". I'd vote to just continue with the official NHC word until notified otherwise. Shouldn't we try to eliminate source of confusion at this time?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest track also seems to turn it more WNW toward the end of the track. I am not liking the look of that in terms of a TX impact!