Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

A heads up Post to NOLA Craigslist
http://neworleans.craigslist.org/rnr/198969802.html

[Noles2006]

FWIW, I adjusted the color and contrast of my monitor. That dot in the center of the convection appears to be lighter, not darker, in color.

Not saying it's an eye, just pointing that out.

I disagree. On the GHCC site, you can clearly see that dot is indicating colder tops.

[Bailey1777]

(Pro-Mets) can one of you please give a heading.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here is the Dvorak estimated center.

[Steve H.]

That is not an eye.....sorry. On the other hand, that circled area is not the center either, but the very western edge of the LCC. The LCC is under the canopy of the convection, but just barely. It is on the very western edge of the convection, which is why you see a flattening of the convection area from the shear pushing up against the western edge of the LCC.

[Air Force Met]

Is the center located near that convection? Last visible shot I saw showed the convection moving over the center. I'd say if convection persist over the center then Ernesto will survive the shear thats ahead.

MI to the rescue!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc06/A ... W.55pc.jpg

You can clearly see the displacement of the LLC to the NW of the deep convection.

Thank goodness...now they don't have to take our work for it...

[Regit]

FWIW, I adjusted the color and contrast of my monitor. That dot in the center of the convection appears to be lighter, not darker, in color.

Not saying it's an eye, just pointing that out.

I disagree. On the GHCC site, you can clearly see that dot is indicating colder tops.

On the picture provided in this thread, the color is a lighter one. It probably is colder cloud tops, but the coloring is strange. To be specific, it appears to be a shade of light blue.

Adjust your monitor a little. If you have a laptop, tilt the screen back farther.

[cpdaman]

hmm where is the LLC , since derek said the mid level shear which was displacing the llC from the MLC was abating maybe the llc did move under the convection?

[curtadams]

MI to the rescue!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc06/A ... W.55pc.jpg

You can clearly see the displacement of the LLC to the NW of the deep convection.

Perfect data, thanks. But - the LLC is connected to the cold cloudtops by some really obvious convection. It's slanted, but the heat engine is fully operational.

[destro34]

usaf under command of

LIEUTENANT GENERAL WILLIAM A. DONAHUE

a3 awacs 82 2d.

[Stratosphere747]

AFM and AJC3 just gave a good indication where the center is......

[Noles2006]

FWIW, I adjusted the color and contrast of my monitor. That dot in the center of the convection appears to be lighter, not darker, in color.

Not saying it's an eye, just pointing that out.

I disagree. On the GHCC site, you can clearly see that dot is indicating colder tops.

On the picture provided in this thread, the color is a lighter one. It probably is colder cloud tops, but the coloring is strange. To be specific, it appears to be a shade of light blue.

Adjust your monitor a little. If you have a laptop, tilt the screen back farther.

Okay, I see what you're saying.

[AJC3]

Is the center located near that convection? Last visible shot I saw showed the convection moving over the center. I'd say if convection persist over the center then Ernesto will survive the shear thats ahead.

MI to the rescue!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc06/A ... W.55pc.jpg

You can clearly see the displacement of the LLC to the NW of the deep convection.

Thank goodness...now they don't have to take our work for it...

As a side note, that has GOT to be a record for speed at which an MI pass was posted on the NRL site. The 0103 UTC (903 PM EDT) pass didn't even take 40 minutes before being posted. It was just in the process of coming in on the site about a minute before I posted the link.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

usaf under command of

LIEUTENANT GENERAL WILLIAM A. DONAHUE

a3 awacs 82 2d.

WOW!

Why is a gereral living in that country?

[AJC3]

MI to the rescue!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc06/A ... W.55pc.jpg

You can clearly see the displacement of the LLC to the NW of the deep convection.

Perfect data, thanks. But - the LLC is connected to the cold cloudtops by some really obvious convection. It's slanted, but the heat engine is fully operational.

Oh, I won't take issue with ya there. Just with the opinion posed by some that the new convective blowup was directly over the center. Pretty obvious that there is good vertical continuity, just displaced (or tilted as you say) toward the SE.

[Brent]

If the center gets under that convection this thing is going to strengthen very quickly. It looks impressive.

[Air Force Met]

(Pro-Mets) can one of you please give a heading.

Certainly. Using the microwave data...the center is very clear and is at about 14.7/68.9 at 0103Z

From the 21Z advisory...this yields a movement of 287 degrees and is right on track with the NHC path.

For those who thing its moving more north...its not...its an illusion because that is the way the convection is building.

[cpdaman]

LLC is where?

[Bailey1777]

Thanks AFM. If you don't mind where do they station you'll in Pearland?

[cpdaman]

ACJ3

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc06/A ... W.55pc.jpg



AJC 3 there is an inconsitency on your maps on the two bottom pictures it appears the convection (colder cloud tops) cuts off at 68 west while on the top two pictures the convection is expanded past 68 west. somethings off or am i just on crack