TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

HouTXmetro · #441 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:14 am

I'm just excited about football this weekend. Ernesto was an unwanted distraction I thought I might have to deal with.

southerngale · #442 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:14 am

Kevin_Cho wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:True, but tonight the models are trending a little east.

Exactly, right where we need them to go the least...the NCGC. However, it's still 5 days out and fairly unreliable. We've got a few days until crunchtime.

Where do we need them to go more? There were a lot of areas affected by hurricanes last year, not just where Katrina hit. I would think anywhere is really bad....for someone.

sevenleft · #443 Postby **sevenleft** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:15 am

Stormcenter wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Cat 4 or 5 will be possible in the GOM
Is this after it dissipates...or before...

just joking...

Below the belt.

Credibility is such a funny thing.

Wx_Warrior · #444 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:16 am

yes houtx metro....got the classic, bayou bucket, hs football double header in Reliant Stadium!

#445 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:18 am

517
WHXX01 KWBC 260616
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060826 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060826 0600 060826 1800 060827 0600 060827 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 69.5W 15.8N 71.7W 16.9N 73.9W 17.9N 76.2W
BAMM 14.6N 69.5W 15.8N 72.0W 16.7N 74.4W 17.8N 76.9W
A98E 14.6N 69.5W 15.3N 71.9W 16.1N 74.1W 17.0N 76.4W
LBAR 14.6N 69.5W 15.7N 71.7W 17.0N 74.0W 18.3N 76.3W
SHIP 40KTS 46KTS 54KTS 65KTS
DSHP 40KTS 46KTS 54KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060828 0600 060829 0600 060830 0600 060831 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 78.2W 19.6N 82.4W 20.5N 86.3W 21.5N 89.6W
BAMM 18.7N 79.0W 20.1N 83.1W 21.4N 86.5W 22.7N 89.1W
A98E 17.7N 78.7W 19.2N 83.6W 20.5N 88.0W 21.5N 91.7W
LBAR 19.5N 78.2W 21.5N 81.7W 23.0N 84.8W 24.6N 87.3W
SHIP 75KTS 91KTS 97KTS 95KTS
DSHP 70KTS 85KTS 90KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 69.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 67.1W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 64.4W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 999MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

HouTXmetro · #446 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:18 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:yes houtx metro....got the classic, bayou bucket, hs football double header in Reliant Stadium!

Ain't no place like TX when it comes to football

Now back to your regularly scheduled topic

Yankeegirl · #447 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:22 am

Go Texans... lol... ooops... sorry... !! back to the weather...

#448 Postby **Bailey1777** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:23 am

Since Thurs. 11pm advisory Ernesto has moved 1.6N - 5.2W and is still moving just N of West. I/m telling you if it does not start gaining Lat. quickly the models will shift West again.

HouTXmetro · #449 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:25 am

Bailey1777 wrote:Since Thurs. 11pm advisory Ernesto has moved 1.6N - 5.2W and is still moving just N of West. I/m telling you if it does not start gaining Lat. quickly the models will shift West again.

I copied the discussion and according the the coordinates at 11 he lost some Latitude unless they got it wrong in the discussion.

Wx_Warrior · #450 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:26 am

we'll see...i think we have TONS of uncerntainty ahead of us guys/gals....speed up (go east) slow down (go west). I think ERNIE MADRIL will be doing both the next few.

#451 Postby **Bailey1777** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:27 am

yeah I noticed it was fixed a little S you are correct.

CYCLONE MIKE · #452 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:28 am

Hpc day six graphics look to depict a weak washed out frontal boundary over southern LA. If that verifies (which we know it will not) will cause enough weakness between the building high to the west and retreating high to the east for Ernesto to move northward towards the central gulf states. Pretty much an alley way just like it did for the K storm last year. Still do not think the front is going to make it this far south , but could be wrong.

#453 Postby **fci** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:30 am

Grease Monkey wrote:so I guess florida will be in the cone 12 hours from now.

And that would make some "un-named" members very excited.....

jhamps10 · #454 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:30 am

ok I already have thread 9 for this ready to be put into service, so don't start one, cause all I have to do is hit submit for it.

I think that the models in the next run will move more to the west, maybe around the Lake charles/Beaumont area.

#455 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:30 am

Latest GFDL ....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

#456 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:31 am

The big boys bring the front to the coast.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lhwbgfnl_crop.gif

Noles2006 · #457 Postby **Noles2006** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:32 am

125 kts at 35m as it nears an Ivan-esque landfall point...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #458 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:32 am

1982,1988,1994.2000 Ernesto where all tropical storms.

jhamps10 · #459 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:33 am

YIKES, 134 Kts, that is a cat 5 isn't it?

timNms · #460 Postby **timNms** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:33 am

pressure at 999 but winds at 45? Seems a bit odd.

TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

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