T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

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gatorcane
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#441 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:14 pm

The GFS run was NOT Bogus - there is a shortwave that is being discussed, hence the NWS Tall discussion above. I don't understand why some are just throwing it out.
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#442 Postby craptacular » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:14 pm

FYI, recon looks to be back in the air.
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#443 Postby Grease Monkey » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:15 pm

Wouldn't jamaica really weaken ernesto or not really because it will be moving through fast?
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#444 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:The GFS run was NOT Bogus - there is a shortwave that is being discussed, hence the NWS Tall discussion above. I don't understand why some are just throwing it out.
It actually IS bogus. Go back and read the many pro met responses to this subject from earlier today.
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#445 Postby gopherfan21 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:15 pm

The NOAA flight doesn't go out until around 7 PM CDT tomorrow night...so that data probably won't be input until the 12Z models Monday.
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#446 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:16 pm

gopherfan21 wrote:The NOAA flight doesn't go out until around 7 PM CDT tomorrow night...so that data probably won't be input until the 12Z models Monday.
I can not wait for that. It should tell us a lot.
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#447 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:16 pm

I don't want to get into wobble wars, but looks like the last few hours have seen a "wobble more NW"....probably just temporary.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
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#448 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:16 pm

Let's put it this way what direction is E moving right now? What direction would he have to move for most of those models. Follow the lines.
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#449 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:17 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
gopherfan21 wrote:The NOAA flight doesn't go out until around 7 PM CDT tomorrow night...so that data probably won't be input until the 12Z models Monday.
I can not wait for that. It should tell us a lot.


Then don't worry about what others are saying about the models...Sure would help...;)
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#450 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:17 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:Wouldn't jamaica really weaken ernesto or not really because it will be moving through fast?



no....not much land mass to disrupt it.....though it could pull an Ivan and dipsy doddle around it..... :lol:
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#451 Postby jasons2k » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:17 pm

gatorcane wrote:The GFS run was NOT Bogus - there is a shortwave that is being discussed, hence the NWS Tall discussion above. I don't understand why some are just throwing it out.


It's been expained I dunno how many times now by the pro mets several pages ago.
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#452 Postby gopherfan21 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:17 pm

Yes I cannot believe the screaming from people on here about OMG Florida!!! This is ridiculous, and if you would read the pro mets' analyses, you guys will realize that the GFS did not initialize features properly. This throws the entire thing off.
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#453 Postby AJC3 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:17 pm

gatorcane wrote:The GFS run was NOT Bogus - there is a shortwave that is being discussed, hence the NWS Tall discussion above. I don't understand why some are just throwing it out.


The short wave being discussed would not be the mechanism for turning Ernie NNW into Cuba over the next 48-60 hours.
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#454 Postby Praxus » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:17 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

I'm a total amateur, but to me its looking much more organized and is starting to look like a weak cane.
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#455 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:18 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:Wouldn't jamaica really weaken ernesto or not really because it will be moving through fast?
nope, jamaica is a free hit. It can afford to to unleash its power on the islands and not skip a beat.
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#456 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:18 pm

I guess I will chime in since not too many people have mentioned this. Look at hte latest wv loops. See how the ull is moving west with more speed. It is under that ridge and so is Ernesto. Ernesto is not going to move north through that ridge anytime soon. That is why the NHC says a continuation wnw. Also the weak trough is not supposed to make it down to LA until wed/early thurs so more than likely the high will start to shift east and break down by then. All these model runs are based off the GFS saying the weak trough will be more like a strong front coming down to turn him so quickly. It is not going to happen. This is not Charley. I guarantee the models will flop to the west again, maybe not tonight but by tomorrow.
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gatorcane
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#457 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:18 pm

AJC3 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The GFS run was NOT Bogus - there is a shortwave that is being discussed, hence the NWS Tall discussion above. I don't understand why some are just throwing it out.


The short wave being discussed would not be the mechanism for turning Ernie NNW into Cuba over the next 48-60 hours.


I know so what would be that mechanism???
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rnbaida

#458 Postby rnbaida » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:18 pm

Is it just me or are the cloud tops warming and blowing away?? could it be the shear?
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#459 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:19 pm

rnbaida wrote:Is it just me or are the cloud tops warming and blowing away?? could it be the shear?
nope, it's just you. This storm is rapidly becoming better organized.
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Brent
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#460 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:19 pm

Praxus wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

I'm a total amateur, but to me its looking much more organized and is starting to look like a weak cane.


I don't think it's a cane yet, but it's well on it's way. If this trend continues it might be one by morning(remember last night it had a big burst).

rnbaida wrote:Is it just me or are the cloud tops warming and blowing away?? could it be the shear?


No as usual.
Last edited by Brent on Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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