TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

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Brent
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#441 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:56 pm

skysummit wrote:That 8pm track on Wunderground is not correct. That's the old track from today. I just checked the raw data and it's the same as the 5pm track. Plus, they don't change forecast tracks on Intermediate Advisories.


Yeah, something's messed up with that. The actual 120-hour position is more to the east south of the AL/FL border area.
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rnbaida

#442 Postby rnbaida » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:57 pm

El Nino wrote:995mb ... 53 kts.


link please.
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#443 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:57 pm

53 kts = 60mph
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#444 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:58 pm

Yeah that wunderground 120hr position is wrong. Here is the 5pm track from the NHC website.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day

<RICKY>
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#445 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:58 pm

El Nino wrote:995mb ... 53 kts.


Where are you getting 995 from? The recon plane left a while back.
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#446 Postby Portastorm » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:59 pm

Isn't that GFDN track a drastic change from its previous run?

Seems a bit whacked. I dunno. :roll:
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#447 Postby El Nino » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:59 pm

It's in the post of Luis.
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#448 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:00 pm

Portastorm wrote:Isn't that GFDN track a drastic change from its previous run?

Seems a bit whacked. I dunno. :roll:


I think it does.
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#449 Postby Rainband » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:01 pm

Portastorm wrote:Isn't that GFDN track a drastic change from its previous run?

Seems a bit whacked. I dunno. :roll:
I agree. One model goes due west all the way to texas and most all the others ignore it and go east. This is going to be one hard Storm to forecast. Thats for sure.
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#450 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:01 pm

Brent wrote:
El Nino wrote:995mb ... 53 kts.


Where are you getting 995 from? The recon plane left a while back.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt2.html
Convection is over the center now according to the Dvorak estimate.

Image

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 AUG 2006 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 16:13:03 N Lon : 72:13:34 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.4 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -62.7C Cloud Region Temp : -61.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

SSD intensity Plus DVORAK are at 3.5.
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#451 Postby hial2 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:01 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:


I don't like that at all!!!


Did you notice the change of location regarding Ernesto?...This track will change the next time the models are run..Remember, i believe the track error has been averaging 225 miles 3 days out..roughly the distance from Miami to Disney
Last edited by hial2 on Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#452 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:03 pm

Isn't it possible the NHC just hasn't issued an 8PM 5 Day Track yet?


That could very well be the real deal right?
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#453 Postby huricanwatcher » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:03 pm

Ernie going more north than expected, I believe.. not going to be a GOM storm
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#454 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:03 pm

hial2 wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:


I don't like that at all!!!


Did you notice the change of location regarding Ernesto?...This track will change the next time the models are run..Remember, i believe the track error has been averaging 225 miles 3 days out..


Oh, I know. The track keeps going back and forth, lol.

Someone posted above that that map wasn't accurate. Is that true?
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#455 Postby rnbaida » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:03 pm

when is the next recon?
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#456 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:03 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Isn't it possible the NHC just hasn't issued an 8PM 5 Day Track yet?


That could very well be the real deal right?


The NHC only updates the track at 5 and 11, not during intermediate advisories.

<RICKY>
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#457 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:03 pm

rnbaida wrote:when is the next recon?


2am ET scheduled arrival.
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Re: .

#458 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:03 pm

huricanwatcher wrote:Ernie going more north than expected, I believe.. not going to be a GOM storm



Wouldn't that be something if it didn't. LOL!!!!!!
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#459 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:04 pm

WOuld like to see the latest projected path map.Something updated from 5pm.It will probably swith to the west slightly
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Re: .

#460 Postby skysummit » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:04 pm

huricanwatcher wrote:Ernie going more north than expected, I believe.. not going to be a GOM storm


LOL...that's got to be the most hilarious post I've seen yet. Thanks for making me laugh!
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