TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[Trugunzn]

slowing down and east track gives it couple more hours over water

[milfordmawx]

Great view of whats happening on the ocean...center must be at Frying Pan Shoals with the pressure dropping like a rock and the wind in different directions at nearby buoy's http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy/SEbuoy.php

[WindRunner]

Ship report of a 60mph wind and pressure 987.5mb in at 00:20Z . . . I'm working on getting a link for you guys. Location is just NE of center.

[artist]

awesome site! Wish there was one for our area!

[WindRunner]

Here we go . . .

SHIP S 0000 33.30 -77.90 58 44 130 52.1 - 29.5 5.0 - - 29.16 -0.40 81.5 66.2 78.8 0.6 8 - 29.5 5.0 320 24.6 4.0 330 ---- -----

from http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_se ... 200&time=3

Of course, it must be remembered that ships do not always have the most accurate equipment, especially when it comes to barometers.

[jimvb]

Take a look at Intellicast radar. Ernesto missed Wilmington! It appears headed for the Outer Banks but I wonder if it is going to the east of them too. The 11 pm update will be interesting. This means that less of Virginia will be impacted but that Ernesto may become a hurricane. Anyone else note the miss?

[Thatsmrhurricane]

I thought the latest fix was due S of Wilmington.

000
URNT12 KNHC 010006
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/23:51:30Z
B. 33 deg 12 min N
078 deg 20 min W

[milfordmawx]

awesome site! Wish there was one for our area!

If you're talking about the buoy pages, I have a page for FL here: http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy/FLbuoy.php and an index of other maps here: http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy.php

[artist]

thank you sooooo much! I can't wait to use it with the next system!

[Josephine96]

Ernie's VERY close to being a Cat 1.. wonder if he'll get upgraded before going onshore..

[Trugunzn]

I expect to see a nice eye soon:

[marcane_1973]

Take a look at Intellicast radar. Ernesto missed Wilmington! It appears headed for the Outer Banks but I wonder if it is going to the east of them too. The 11 pm update will be interesting. This means that less of Virginia will be impacted but that Ernesto may become a hurricane. Anyone else note the miss?

Yea I said earlier that this was going to be a Hatteras storm since it is moving more east than anticipated.

[Stratusxpeye]

Take a look at Intellicast radar. Ernesto missed Wilmington! It appears headed for the Outer Banks but I wonder if it is going to the east of them too. The 11 pm update will be interesting. This means that less of Virginia will be impacted but that Ernesto may become a hurricane. Anyone else note the miss?

Yea I said earlier that this was going to be a Hatteras storm since it is moving more east than anticipated.

Highly doubtful. Its coming onshore already. The inner (eyewall) rainabnds. it has not MISSED Wilmington.

[milfordmawx]

Here's an East Coast mesomap that shows gust speed from Maine to Florida http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/neast.htm

[artist]

those are really nice to have - looks like a lot of hard work, but waht a great tool for everyone to use!

[marcane_1973]

Looks like the Outer Banks will see the worst weather and of course the worst side of the storm where the strongest winds are located. I expect to see lots and lot of tornado warnings for that area this evening. Anybody who has been glued to this storm so far tonight can clearly see the worst bands and storms coming off the ocean are all up that way especially near the Nags Head area.

[UpTheCreek]

Looks like the Outer Banks will see the worst weather and of course the worst side of the storm where the strongest winds are located. I expect to see lots and lot of tornado warnings for that area this evening. Anybody who has been glued to this storm so far tonight can clearly see the worst bands and storms coming off the ocean are all up that way especially near the Nags Head area.

I see the Outer Banks getting some outer bands with lots of rain, but I don't see the center getting close enough for the strongest winds....it'll pass too far west.

[milfordmawx]

those are really nice to have - looks like a lot of hard work, but waht a great tool for everyone to use!

Thanks!
Times like this are why I put all the work into the different tools ...not a calm sunny day

[dwsqos2]

41013

To reinforce that ship observation; buoy 41013 recorded a pressure of,
unless terribly mistaken 990.9 mb as well as sustained winds of 44.7 knots. Apologies for stating the obvious, but the anemometer's elevation is 5 m ASL,
and the averaging period is longer than a minute; of course, this suggests
that the 1-minute 10 m would be stronger.

[Bella]

A bit off-topic, but....where is RI?????

Otherwise, great site! Saved it to my faves.